TSLA Year-End Target $500, Model Y Sells Out, Optimus Leads the Charge! Tesla Rewrites the Trillion-Dollar Growth Story
Tesla’s stock has been climbing lately, and honestly, I saw this coming—I’ve been a firm believer in Elon Musk for a while now.
But the good news piling up for Tesla recently is almost too much to keep up with: Musk buying more shares, Model Y selling like hotcakes, and Optimus racking up orders left and right.
Let’s dive into Tesla’s current state and what’s ahead.
21 Days, Two Months’ Worth Sold Out
Tesla’s first six-seater, the Model Y L, hit the website with no fanfare, catching even its own salespeople off guard—many hadn’t heard a thing beforehand.
（Model Y L, sourced from Tesla's official website）
To Musk, the big goal of pushing the electric vehicle industry forward is mostly checked off—now it’s down to finer details like new models and keeping Wall Street analysts happy.
Data shows Tesla delivered 129,000 vehicles in China this past quarter, making up 34% of its sales. Unlike before, this model launched in China first, tailored for SUV-loving Chinese buyers, and it’s seen as the key to reviving Tesla’s sales.
On August 19, before most Tesla salespeople even clocked in, the Model Y L went live online. “I hadn’t reached the store yet, but the work group was already buzzing with orders,” one salesperson said.
Tesla’s brand power is still rock solid. A salesperson from a new Tier-1 city of China reported closing over 10 orders that day, with the store hitting 30 total—normally, one order a day is the pace.
New car launches and the first weekend are peak order times. A salesperson from a Tier-2 city said they welcomed over 100 customers at a mall that weekend, with a high rate of returning owners.
Some buyers note the Model Y L’s space falls short—third-row seating feels cramped for adults—but since six full seats are rarely used, it hasn’t dulled order enthusiasm.
Tesla hasn’t shared official sales figures, but multiple salespeople say it’s outselling expectations. The Model Y L sold out September’s capacity in 6 days and October’s in 15 more. On the website, delivery dates are now pushed to November.
Musk Speeds Up Robotaxi Expansion
Tesla supporter Sawyer Merritt, with over 957,000 followers on X, posted that the Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) Commercial Licensing Office approved Tesla’s test registration certification that day. He got confirmation from the DMV, and “autonomous driving licenses and registration certificates were mailed to Tesla.”
A DMV representative confirmed to media that Tesla submitted the test registration on September 3 last Wednesday, processed by the Office of Business Licenses (OBL) team this Wednesday.
DMV spokesperson Hailey Foster explained this means Tesla can now test self-driving cars in the state but can’t yet deploy them as a regular service. She wrote in an email: “Tesla must complete the operational self-certification process to launch a full project, like Robotaxi.”
Comments note Nevada’s friendly regulatory stance on self-driving car tests. Tesla just needs to file a test registration form, reviewed by the DMV for a compliance certificate and red test plates. But for commercial Robotaxi services, it must finish the “operational self-certification” process. Approval would let Tesla run services like the one launched in Austin in June.
Tesla started offering Model Y-based Robotaxi services in Austin on June 22 and expanded to the Bay Area by late July.
On the Q2 earnings call on July 23, Musk outlined the Robotaxi expansion roadmap, saying: “We expect to greatly expand the service, aiming to outpace competitors within one to two weeks. With regulatory approval, we’ll launch in the Bay Area, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and other regions. Once approved and safety is proven, we’ll roll it out across most of the US. I think by year-end, we could cover half the US population—at least that’s the goal, pending approvals.”
Musk suggested Tesla might remove the safety drivers required in current Robotaxi services by year-end. He posted on X: “Safety drivers are only needed for the first few months for extra caution. They should be gone by year-end.”
Reports said Tesla has started applying to multiple California airports for permission to pick up passengers with its self-driving service.
Where’s Tesla Headed?
In short, Tesla’s future hinges on three pillars: humanoid robots, Robotaxi (self-driving taxis), and xAI (AI projects).
I see the robot sector becoming one of the hottest investment themes this fourth quarter, rivaling CPO and semiconductors, a view rooted in my optimism for Tesla’s Optimus robot.
As I’ve said before, Tesla’s core logic has shifted from “car maker” to “software platform”—as Musk puts it, “Cars are robots on wheels, hardware’s the shell, software’s the engine.”
Buying Tesla isn’t just about the cars now—it’s a bet on whether Musk’s wild visions will come true.
I’m eyeing a $500 stock price for Tesla by year-end.
We won’t have many days as uncertain or hectic as today, nor as full of promise.
2025 will fly by, but Tesla will leave its mark on history. $TSLA