APAC Market Wrap - 25 Sep

 

China Stock Market: At the close, the Shanghai Composite dipped 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component rose 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.58%.

 

Sectors like gaming, AI applications, and controlled nuclear fusion led gains, while port shipping, precious metals, and oil/gas lagged.

 

Hong Kong Stock Market: Hong Kong’s market failed to sustain Tuesday’s broad rally, with mixed performance across indices.The Hang Seng Index fell 0.13% to 26,484.68 points, the Tech Index rose 0.89% to 6,379.19 points, and the China Enterprises Index edged up 0.01% to 9,444.22 points.

 

Lithium batteries, gold, nonferrous metals, and autos performed strongly, while appliances and banks weakened.

 

Japan Stock Market: The Nikkei 225 rose 0.27% for the third straight day, closing at a record 45,754.93 yen, up 124.62 yen.

 

Nonferrous metals, oil/coal, electric/gas, and services were among 25 sectors gaining, while precision instruments, miscellaneous products, steel, and pharmaceuticals were among 7 declining sectors; air transport was flat.

 

South Korea Stock Market: The KOSPI slipped 0.03% to 3,471.11 points.

 

Two-way media, display panels, trading companies, and electrical products rose, while cigarettes, bioengineering, energy equipment, communication equipment, and utilities led declines.

 

Australia Stock Market: The S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.10% to 8,773.00 points.

 

Semiconductors, agriculture, and apparel/accessories gained, while aerospace, medical equipment, and industrial distribution saw sharp declines.

 

Singapore Stock Market: The Straits Times Index fell 0.36% to 4,275.15 points.

 

Autos/parts, furniture, and construction materials surged, while forestry, steel, and utilities saw significant drops.

 

Malaysia Stock Market: The FTSE Malaysia KLCI dipped 0.07% to 1,598.47 points.

 

Construction, energy, and consumer goods rose, while closed-end funds, utilities, and business trusts declined.

Key Events

Goldman Sachs Cuts Copper Supply Forecast for 2025-2026 After Grasberg Disruption  

 

Goldman Sachs lowered its 2025 and 2026 global copper supply forecasts on Thursday after a supply disruption at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, the world’s second-largest copper mine. A September 8 mudslide trapped workers underground, prompting operator Freeport-McMoRan to declare force majeure.

 

Goldman estimates a 525,000-ton supply reduction, cutting 2025 H2 forecasts by 160,000 tons and 2026 by 200,000 tons.

 

South Korea PM: U.S. Investment “Nearly Impossible” Without Visa Fixes  

 

South Korea PM Kim Min-seok said Thursday that U.S. investment projects are “nearly impossible” without resolving visa issues for Korean workers.

 

He referenced the recent detention of hundreds of Korean workers at a Georgia battery plant under construction. With South Korea planning $35 billion in U.S. investments, Kim said, “Without visa solutions, substantial progress is nearly impossible.”

 

Year’s Biggest U.S. IPO? Medline Eyes $5B Raise in October Filing  

 

Sources say medical supplier Medline is considering filing for an IPO by late October, potentially raising ~$5 billion, making it 2025’s largest U.S. IPO.

 

Backed by Blackstone, Carlyle, and Hellman & Friedman, the Illinois-based firm confidentially filed last December and could list by November if the filing proceeds.

 

South Korea Central Bank Warns of U.S. Tariffs, Property Imbalances  

 

The Bank of Korea warned Thursday that U.S. tariffs, industrial weakness, and real estate imbalances threaten financial stability.

 

Government stimulus and lower borrowing costs may ease household and small business debt but could reignite property market imbalances, especially in the capital region where prices are already rising.

 

Crypto’s Overnight Riches or Reset? Perpetual Contracts Heat Up  

 

Perpetual contracts, with no expiry or strike price, allow traders to hold positions indefinitely, resembling auto-rolling options.

 

This speculative tool is gaining traction in the U.S. regulated market. Coinbase launched perpetual contracts for U.S. retail clients this summer, and Cboe Global Markets plans to introduce them in November, taking center stage in crypto’s volatile market.

Institutional Views:

Barclays FX strategists note that despite recent negative events, the U.S. dollar hasn’t weakened significantly.

 

After a sharp drop from February to May, it’s held steady in a narrow range despite weak economic data and challenges to Fed credibility. Barclays expects U.S. economic recovery in coming months, supporting dollar resilience, though analysts remain cautious about threats to Fed independence.

 

Goldman Sachs says a full EU ban on Russian oil is “unlikely” due to reliance by countries like Hungary and Slovakia and lack of support. Even if implemented, it would only redirect oil flows, not cut global supply, limiting impact on supply-demand balance.

 

Goldman strategists Kamakshya Trivedi and Tarun Lalwani predict emerging market stocks and currencies will climb by year-end, driven by macro tailwinds, positioning, and favorable seasonality. Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and capital inflows create a supportive environment, with Q4 historically favorable.

 

Goldman raised its MSCI Emerging Markets Index 12-month target from 1,370 to 1,480, implying ~10% upside. It remains overweight on China and South Korea for AI/tech and policy reforms, and South Africa for mining and cheap local stocks.

 

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister expects the Swiss National Bank to hold rates steady, offering slight support to the Swiss franc, as this is widely anticipated. While the SNB may reiterate its readiness for negative rates if needed, it’s likely to reserve this for emergencies, avoiding aggressive FX intervention to weaken the franc.