Global Highlights This Week: Focus on U.S. September Non farm Payrolls, Tesla to Release Q3 Delivery Data

Last week, the U.S. stock market’s recent streak of record highs paused, with the three major indices falling for three consecutive days before regaining some ground on Friday, though still posting weekly losses.  

 

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell 0.65% and 0.31% last week, respectively, marking their first weekly declines in four weeks. The Dow was down 0.15%.  

 

Despite this, the major U.S. indices have performed strongly this month, even though September is typically a weaker period for stocks.

 

So far this month, the Nasdaq is up 4.79%, on track for a sixth consecutive monthly gain; the S&P 500 has risen 2.84%, eyeing a fifth straight monthly increase; and the Dow is up 1.54%, poised for a fifth monthly rise.  

 

This week’s focus will be U.S. employment data, particularly the September nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Investors will also monitor other labor market indicators, including August JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, September ADP private payrolls on Wednesday, and weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday.  

 

HSBC analysts expect the September nonfarm data to remain soft, “confirming” a rate cut in October.

 

They noted that recent months’ nonfarm revisions have been significant, so any updates will be closely scrutinized. LSEG data shows an 86% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in October, with another cut likely in December.  

 

Additionally, investors will watch for signals on U.S. consumer health.

 

Recently revised Q2 GDP data highlighted strong consumer spending. The Conference Board’s September consumer confidence index is due Tuesday, followed by September ISM manufacturing and services data on Wednesday and Friday.  

 

This week’s earnings calendar is light, with Nike reporting Q1 results on Tuesday, closing out the Q2 earnings season.

 

 

Beyond earnings, Tesla is expected to release its global Q3 delivery figures on Thursday. Markets widely anticipate strong Tesla Q3 deliveries, driven by U.S. consumers rushing to buy before the September 30 EV subsidy deadline.  

This Week’s Key Overseas Economic Events 

Monday: Eurozone September Economic Sentiment Index, U.S. August Pending Home Sales (MoM), U.S. September Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index  

 

Tuesday: Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision, France/Germany September CPI, U.S. July FHFA House Price Index (MoM), U.S. August JOLTS Job Openings, U.S. September Conference Board Consumer Confidence  

 

Wednesday: France/Germany/Eurozone September Manufacturing PMI (Final), UK September Manufacturing PMI (Final), Eurozone September CPI, U.S. September ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. September ADP Employment  

 

Thursday: Eurozone August Unemployment Rate, U.S. August Factory Orders (MoM), Switzerland September CPI  

 

Friday: U.S. September Nonfarm Payrolls (Seasonally Adjusted), U.S. September Unemployment Rate, U.S. September S&P Global Services PMI (Final), U.S. September ISM Services PMI, France/Germany/Eurozone September Services PMI (Final)