Tesla Q3 Global Deliveries Looming: Wall Street Optimism Heats Up

Tesla is set to release its Q3 global delivery figures in early October, and Wall Street's bullish sentiment around the numbers is building.

 

Analysts worry that if deliveries beat expectations, it might be more due to U.S. buyers rushing in before EV tax credits vanish than a true sign of Tesla's strength.

 

 

Tesla's Q3 delivery data could drop on Wednesday or Thursday.

 

Many fear the $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit ends September 30, and Tesla's promised affordable EV is still MIA, putting the company in a tough spot. CEO Elon Musk warned in July's earnings call of "several tough quarters ahead."

 

Tesla's stock, after seven straight gains, has been choppy lately. It tanked Thursday on weak European sales data but clawed back some Friday.

 

The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) reported Thursday that Tesla's EV registrations in Europe fell ~23% year-over-year in August, marking eight straight months of declines.

 

Year-to-date, Tesla has battled headwinds like Musk's political stances hurting the brand, his fallout with President Trump, and slumping sales worldwide. It lagged the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants for a while but has rebounded sharply, up ~16% YTD versus the S&P 500's ~13%.

 

Wall Street's Q3 delivery forecasts have climbed recently. FactSet shows consensus at 448,000 vehicles, up from ~430,000 in July and August.

 

RBC analysts said last week they expect 456,000 deliveries, topping FactSet's 448,000 and Visible Alpha's 440,000. They attribute the boost to U.S. buyers grabbing the tax credit before it expires.

 

RBC added, “That said, with the affordable model launching year-end, there could be some demand pull-forward in Q3.”

 

UBS also hiked its Q3 estimate last week from 431,000 to 475,000, a ~10% jump. It highlighted strong U.S. deliveries from the refreshed Model Y and consumers maximizing the tax credit before it ends.

 

Tesla has been a lightning rod this year, thanks to Musk's politics. It's facing fiercer competition from U.S. legacy automakers and Chinese EV rivals, and hasn't launched new models or major refreshes since Cybertruck debuted years ago.

 

 

Tesla bulls argue the real money's elsewhere: AI, full self-driving, robotaxis, and Optimus humanoid robots, not just EVs.

 

Deutsche Bank raised its Tesla price target Friday from $345 to $435, keeping a "Buy" rating.

 

Deutsche expects 461,500 Q3 deliveries, flat year-over-year but up 20% quarter-over-quarter, beating consensus. It credits China's Model Y L launch and U.S. pre-subsidy buying.

 

Deutsche also said Musk's focus on robotaxis and Optimus, plus his recent pay package, "removes a major overhang" and positions Tesla to lead in AI.

 

Beyond deliveries, investors eye Tesla's Q3 earnings in late October. FactSet forecasts adjusted EPS of $0.49 and $24.9 billion in sales, down from $0.72 EPS and $25.2 billion in Q3 2024.$TSLA