ADDX GO Market Morning Wrap - 30th Sep
Stock Market
On Monday, the three major U.S. stock indices all rose.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.15% to 46,316.07 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.26% to 6,661.21 points, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.48% to 22,591.15 points.
Large-cap tech stocks had mixed results (by market cap): Nvidia rose 2.07%, Microsoft gained 0.61%, Apple fell 0.4%, Google C dropped 1.14%, Amazon rose 1.09%, Meta dipped 0.05%, Broadcom fell 1.98%, and Tesla gained 0.64%.
Last week, the major indices weakened. The S&P 500 posted its worst weekly performance since August 1, the Nasdaq saw its weakest week since early August, and the Dow recorded its first decline in three weeks.
Analysts say skepticism around AI trades pressured the broader market, with some traders questioning whether Nvidia’s AI infrastructure partnership with OpenAI can continue driving stock gains.
Barclays U.S. equity strategy head Venu Krishna said AI sector capital spending is still fueling markets, showing “no signs of slowing.” Krishna added that other industries will keep benefiting from the AI infrastructure spending wave, and given the tech sector’s heavy weighting in the S&P 500, it’s well-positioned compared to other indices.
Earlier in the day, Trump posted on social media, “I will impose a 100% tariff on all films made outside the U.S.” He made a similar statement on May 4, threatening 100% tariffs on foreign-made films.
Hargreaves Lansdown’s chief investment strategist Emma Wall wrote that investors should note tariffs’ inflationary impact isn’t fully reflected in data yet, and further tax hikes could add price pressures.
With the funding deadline looming, all eyes are on a potential federal government shutdown. On Sunday, Trump said he’d discuss with bipartisan congressional leaders and believes Democrats may want a deal.
Historically, government shutdowns have had minimal market impact, but delayed key economic data releases could cloud the Fed’s rate outlook, potentially denting market sentiment.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics issued a shutdown contingency plan: if funding stops, it will fully halt operations and data collection, and scheduled releases like the monthly nonfarm payrolls report will be canceled.
Global Hotspots
Trump Proposes 100% Tariff on Foreign-Made Films
President Trump posted on social media today, “I will impose a 100% tariff on all films made outside the U.S.” He made a similar claim on May 4, threatening 100% tariffs on foreign films.
Trump Meets Congressional Leaders to Avoid Government Shutdown
On September 29, Trump met with House and Senate leaders at the White House to discuss averting a government shutdown. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said major differences remain, noting Trump heard their objections.
Schumer added that Republicans will decide if a shutdown occurs. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries called it a candid discussion, stressing Democrats won’t support Republican bills harming healthcare. House Speaker Johnson expressed hope for more negotiation time. Vice President Vance said the talks were “frank” and a shutdown shouldn’t result from disagreements.
Trump Administration Seeks to Cut Harvard’s Federal Funding via New Path
On September 29, the U.S. government moved to block Harvard University from future federal funding through a “debarment process.” The Department of Health and Human Services’ civil rights office sent a letter to Harvard’s president, confirming the process began.
Earlier this month, a Boston federal judge ruled the government must restore $2.2 billion in research funding frozen earlier this year. But with White House-Harvard talks stalled over campus antisemitism issues, the administration is pushing debarment to deem Harvard ineligible for government business, potentially impacting its research and funding.
Poland to Boost 2026 Defense Budget to 4.8% of GDP, Focus on Airspace Security
On September 29, Polish Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz announced at the Warsaw Security Forum that Poland’s 2026 defense budget will rise to 200 billion zloty (~$54.9 billion), or 4.8% of GDP, to counter airspace threats to Poland and NATO allies.
The increase will prioritize anti-drone air defense systems, including the EU co-funded “drone wall” project. Poland’s 2025 defense budget is ~4.7% of GDP.
Germany Considers Banning Social Media for Under-16s
Germany’s ruling CDU/CSU coalition is discussing age limits for social media, considering a ban for those under 16. Jens Spahn, parliamentary group leader for the CDU, told *Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung* on September 29 that the party is exploring stricter rules for minors’ internet use.
One option is setting the social media age limit at 16. Spahn said banning teens from social media is a tough measure, “but we also ban minors from alcohol and nicotine to protect their developing brains.” If social media’s impact is greater, action is needed.
Company News
OpenAI Partners with Etsy and Shopify for Instant Checkout in ChatGPT
OpenAI launched an instant checkout feature in ChatGPT with Etsy and Shopify. It’s rolling out to U.S. ChatGPT Pro, Plus, and logged-in free users shopping from U.S. Etsy sellers, with over a million Shopify merchants set to join soon.
Strategy Boosts Bitcoin Holdings with $22.1M Purchase
From September 22-28, Strategy bought 196 BTC for $22.1 million at an average price of $113,048, bringing its total holdings to 640,031 BTC. As of September 28, the company’s $47.35 billion investment, with an average cost of $73,983 per BTC, is now worth ~$71.8 billion.
Toyota and Isuzu to Jointly Develop Fuel Cell Buses
On September 29, Toyota and Isuzu announced a deal to co-develop hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) for commercial use as public buses. Combining their technologies to cut costs, production will start in 2026 at J-BUS, a joint venture between Isuzu and Toyota’s Hino Motors, in Utsunomiya.
ZEEKR: Will Subsidize 2026 Tax Rebate Cuts if 9X Capacity Falls Short
ZEEKR announced today it’s adjusting capacity for its 9X SUV. If 9X production can’t meet delivery demand this year, ZEEKR will cover part of next year’s purchase tax rebate reduction. The luxury flagship 9X SUV launched today.
SEC Chair Backs Trump’s Proposal to End Mandatory Quarterly Reports
The SEC pledged to fast-track President Trump’s proposal to end mandatory quarterly earnings reports for most companies, marking his latest move in a debate over U.S. market transparency. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said companies could opt for semi-annual reports, though many may stick with quarterly ones.
“Letting companies report twice a year isn’t a step back in transparency,” Atkins said. “It’s time for the SEC to step back and let markets decide the best reporting frequency based on industry, size, and investor expectations.”
Forex & Commodities
WTI crude futures fell 3.45% to $63.45/barrel. Brent crude futures dropped 3.08% to $67.97/barrel.
COMEX gold futures rose 1.42% to $3,862.9/oz; COMEX silver futures gained 0.97% to $47.11/oz.
At the New York close, the dollar index fell 0.26% to 97.94, with most non-U.S. currencies rising.
Key Events
Gold Spot Price Breaks $3,800/oz, Institutions See More Upside
On September 29, London spot gold hit a record $3,819.81/oz, crossing the $3,800 mark. Precious metals soared, with spot silver also setting a new high, and A-share precious metal stocks rallied in the afternoon.
Institutions believe Fed rate cuts and other factors give gold mid-to-long-term upside. UBS Wealth Management’s CIO predicts gold could reach $3,900/oz by mid-2026.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin rose 1.80% in 24 hours to $114,326.19.
Ethereum (ETH-USD) gained 1.87% to $4,219.74.
XRP (XRP-USD) rose 0.68%, BNB (BNB-USD) jumped 3.72%, and Solana (SOL-USD) gained 1.15%.
Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) fell 0.82%, and Cardano (ADA-USD) dipped 0.04%.
Key Events
Strategy Holds Over 640,000 BTC Worth ~$71.8B
Bitcoin reserve company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) bought 196 BTC from September 22-28 for $22.1 million, a 2.57% increase, at an average price of $113,048, per an SEC 8-K filing. Co-founder and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said Strategy now holds 640,031 BTC, worth ~$71.8 billion, with an average purchase price of $73,983, costing $47.4 billion including fees.
This is over 3% of Bitcoin’s 21 million total supply, yielding ~$24.4 billion in unrealized gains.
