Tonight’s Highlights | U.S. Government Shutdown Crisis Looms, U.S. Stock Futures Fall

On Tuesday, U.S. stock index futures dropped amid growing fears of a federal government shutdown. Most European indices rose.

 

After President Trump met with Democratic and Republican congressional leaders, Vice President Vance said late Monday, “I think we’re heading toward a shutdown because Democrats won’t do the right thing.”

 

The U.S. Labor Department announced that if a shutdown occurs, the scheduled September nonfarm payrolls report on Friday will be canceled.

 

This report is key for the Fed’s October policy meeting to gauge the economy. A prolonged shutdown could also delay the mid-October CPI release.

 

Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid said, “It’s even possible the Fed gets no fresh data before its next meeting (starting October 28).” But he noted shutdowns rarely last over two weeks.

 

Government shutdowns usually don’t shake markets much, but this time could be different. Investors are already worried about a slowing job market, stagflation risks, and high stock valuations. The crisis could prompt rating agencies to reassess U.S. credit, as Moody’s downgraded it in May.

 

Natixis Investment Managers’ chief investment strategist and portfolio manager Jack Janasiewicz said a shutdown could have “indirect effects” on sentiment and volatility short-term.

 

“Investors are hyper-focused on labor market weakness and tariff inflation pass-through. Delays in data collection from a shutdown add uncertainty, and higher uncertainty often means bigger market swings,” he said.

 

Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli added, “Markets expect a shutdown in Washington, so investors are mostly sitting tight. But if it drags past two weeks, worries will ramp up.”

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