ADDX GO Market Morning Wrap - 1st Oct

Stock Market

On Tuesday (September 30), all three major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow closing at a record high.  

 

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.18% to 46,397.89 points, surpassing its September 22 record; the S&P 500 rose 0.41% to 6,688.46 points; and the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.3% to 22,660.01 points.  

 

Tuesday’s close marked the end of September and Q3. For the month, the Dow rose 1.87% and the S&P 500 gained 3.53%, both up for five straight months; the Nasdaq climbed 5.61%, up for six consecutive months.  

 

In Q3, the Dow rose 5.22%, the S&P 500 gained 7.79%, and the Nasdaq surged 11.24%. Year-to-date, the indices are up 9.06%, 13.72%, and 17.34%, respectively.  

 

Large-cap tech stocks were mixed: Nvidia jumped 2.6% to $186.58, hitting a new record with a $4.542 trillion market cap. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also closed at a new high, up 0.87%.  

 

Notably, the “September curse”—historically the weakest month for stocks—didn’t materialize. Over the past decade (2015–2024), the S&P 500 averaged a 1.93% September decline.  

 

Early Tuesday, Trump warned that a federal government shutdown could lead to mass layoffs of federal workers. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said it would halt all operations during a shutdown, canceling economic data releases.

 

Overall, markets were little fazed by the shutdown risk. However, some investors worry that large-scale federal layoffs or a prolonged shutdown could significantly impact the U.S. economy.  

 

Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said, “Markets expect a shutdown, and investors are largely on hold, but if it lasts over two weeks, concerns will grow.”  

 

Pave Finance co-founder and chief market strategist Peter Corey suggested a delayed nonfarm payrolls report could benefit stocks. “It might hide a sub-zero jobs number, which is quite possible given how close data is to zero. Delaying disappointment could soften the blow,” he said.

Global Hotspots

Senate Rejects Democratic Funding Bill, Federal Shutdown Looms  

 

On September 30, the U.S. Senate rejected a Democratic government funding bill, putting the federal government hours away from a potential shutdown. The Senate will now vote on a Republican House-passed proposal to fund the government for seven weeks.

 

If Congress misses the deadline, some federal agencies will shut down starting October 1, forcing hundreds of thousands of federal workers into unpaid furloughs and delaying U.S. economic data releases.

 

CBO: 750,000 Federal Workers Face Daily Furloughs in Shutdown  

 

Based on federal agency contingency plans and Office of Personnel Management data, the Congressional Budget Office estimates ~750,000 federal workers could be furloughed daily during a shutdown, with a daily payroll cost of ~$400 million.

 

The CBO noted that the impact depends on the shutdown’s duration and government decisions.

 

Trump: Deal with Harvard Imminent  

 

On September 30, President Trump said he’s close to an agreement with Harvard University, which will run a vocational school teaching AI. Trump claimed Harvard will pay $500 million.

 

Fed’s Goolsbee: Shutdown Impact Depends on Scope and Duration  

 

Fed Governor Goolsbee said a shutdown’s data disruptions would affect the Fed, hoping recent high inflation proves temporary. He noted that most shutdowns are short with limited economic impact, depending on their scope and length.

 

Qatar PM: To Discuss U.S. “20-Point Plan” with Turkey, Egypt, Hamas  

 

On September 30, Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed said Trump’s “20-point plan” to end the Gaza conflict needs further clarification. The preliminary framework sets ceasefire as a goal, but Israel’s military withdrawal remains unclear and requires negotiation.

 

Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey will discuss the plan with Hamas on September 30 evening.

 

Houthi Claims Cruise Missile Attack on Cargo Ship  

 

Early October 1, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said they attacked the “MINERVAGRACHT” cargo ship with cruise missiles for violating their navigation ban. The ship was hit, caught fire, and faces sinking risk.

 

ECB’s Lagarde: Tariffs Have Minimal Inflation Impact So Far  

 

ECB President Lagarde said U.S.-EU trade deals have reduced uncertainty faster than expected, with tariffs having minimal inflationary impact so far, creating good conditions to manage inflation risks.

Company News

U.S. Energy Secretary: Will Take Stake in Lithium Americas  

 

Lithium Americas (LAC) surged over 40% after-hours as the U.S. Energy Secretary announced the government will invest in the lithium miner.

 

CoreWeave Signs $14B Compute Supply Deal with Meta  

 

Cloud provider CoreWeave rose 11.7% after signing a $14 billion compute supply agreement with Meta.

 

Spotify Leadership Shakeup  

 

Music streaming platform Spotify fell 4.18% after announcing a leadership change, naming Alex Norström and Gustav Söderström as co-CEOs.

 

Unusual Machines Secures $12.8M Defense Order  

 

Per SEC filings, Unusual Machines won a $12.8 million defense order to supply equipment for the strategic Logix S RRSL drone system.

 

Alcon to Acquire STAAR Surgical for $1.5B  

 

Alcon announced it will acquire STAAR Surgical’s equity for $28 per share, a deal valued at $1.5 billion.

Forex & Commodities  

WTI crude futures fell 1.70% to $62.37/barrel, down 1.7% in September. Brent crude futures dropped 1.40% to $67.02/barrel, down 1.57% in September.  

 

COMEX gold futures rose 0.84% to $3,887.6/oz, up 10.57% in September; COMEX silver futures fell 0.37% to $46.84/oz, up 14.94% in September.  

 

At the New York close, the dollar index fell 0.11% to 97.83, down 0.02% in September.

Key Events

OPEC+ Delegate: Group to Consider Bigger Output Hikes Next Three Months  

 

An OPEC+ delegate said the group will discuss increasing production by 500,000 barrels/day each month for the next three months.

Cryptocurrency  

Bitcoin fell 0.36% in 24 hours to $114,016.38.  

 

Ethereum (ETH-USD) dropped 2.20% to $4,126.59.  

 

XRP (XRP-USD) fell 1.78%, BNB (BNB-USD) dropped 2.16%, and Solana (SOL-USD) declined 2.58%.  

 

Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) fell 1.17%, and Cardano (ADA-USD) dipped 0.06%.

Key Events

What Happens to Bitcoin if U.S. Government Shuts Down?  

 

With a government shutdown looming, Bitcoin traders relying on U.S. jobs data to gauge Fed rate cuts may face delays. Analysts say Bitcoin’s reaction to such events is unclear, likely increasing short-term volatility. Past shutdowns had mixed price impacts.  

 

Bitunix analysts noted, “Rate cut expectations favor risk assets, but bubble fears and political risks amplify short-term swings. For crypto, this brings liquidity support but also downside uncertainty.” They added, “Mid-term, confirmed rate cuts will boost liquidity and risk assets. Short-term, bubble concerns and shutdown risks heighten fragility, making sharp ‘dip-and-rebound’ swings more likely.”