Tesla Sales Beat Expectations,But Robotaxi Is The Real Star

Let’s dive into Deutsche Bank’s latest report, dated September 26, 2025, titled “Tesla – Q3 volume upside, robotaxi continues to expand.” $TSLA

In a nutshell, DB thinks Tesla’s Q3 deliveries will top expectations, Robotaxi is expanding fast, and they’re bumping the price target from $345 to $435 while sticking with “buy.”

I. Q3 sales: An unexpected bright spot

DB expects Tesla to hand over 461,000 vehicles in Q3, way above the consensus of 433,000.

The boost comes from two angles:

China rolled out the Model Y L version.
U.S. buyers rushed in before EV subsidies run out.

By region:

Europe’s still sliding (-30% year-over-year), thanks to stiff competition and brand woes.
North America’s up 5%.
China’s down over 10% year-over-year but up 20% from last quarter.
On margins, DB sees a small bump to 15.6% (excluding carbon credits), with scale helping offset some tariff pain.

II. What’s next for sales? Model Q

DB’s take: 2026 growth hinges on a new model—Model Q, a cheaper take on the Model Y, originally set for late Q2 this year but now delayed to Q4 or early 2026.

If it launches on time, it could add 150,000 units in 2026.

III. Robotaxi progress exceeds expectations

This is the meat of the report.

Since June rollout, Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet has topped 100 vehicles, mostly in Austin and the Bay Area, with over 200,000 miles driven.
In Austin, the operating zone grew 8x, from 20 square miles to 170.
Next up: Nevada, Arizona, and Florida; Illinois and New York for testing, but full ops wait till 2026.

Pricing-wise, Tesla’s Robotaxi rides are 40-80% cheaper than Uber or Waymo, even if wait times are longer—the gap makes it a no-brainer.

DB figures the fleet hits 1,000+ by Q1 2026, with real financial impact showing in 2027.

IV. Stock price and valuation

DB raised Tesla’s target from $345 to $435 for two reasons:

Musk’s $1 trillion comp plan is locked in, steadying leadership vibes.
Bigger multiples for Robotaxi and Optimus long-term potential.

In their breakdown:

Robotaxi alone at $134 per share.
Humanoid robots at $113 per share.
Core auto and energy business around $200 combined.

Bottom line: Tesla’s increasingly seen as an “AI + mobility + robotics” play, not just EVs.

My takes

Short-term sales, long-term story. This year’s deliveries should hit the 1.6 million goal, but what’ll really juice the stock is Robotaxi and humanoids.

Robotaxi’s the core battleground. DB puts it on par with OpenAI and Anthropic—markets are treating it like an AI platform bet.

Risks are real. U.S. regs or China competition could throw off Tesla’s rhythm.