Tonight’s Highlights | U.S. Government Shutdown Delays Nonfarm Payrolls as Expected, U.S. Stock Futures Rise Pre-Market
Despite the U.S. government shutdown entering its third day, U.S. stocks, which have risen for five consecutive days, seem to retain their momentum.
Market data shows that the three major U.S. stock index futures continued to rise collectively pre-market on Friday. As of this report, Dow Jones futures rose 0.24%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.17%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.16%.
Currently, U.S. stocks have entered the typically strong fourth quarter. It’s not hard to see that, despite recent market highs, the shadow of the government shutdown has not posed a clear challenge to stock market bulls.
Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, wrote in a report: “Thursday’s fifth consecutive day of gains in U.S. stocks shows that the historical pattern of government shutdowns holds—such events typically have limited economic impact, and the eventual resumption of federal operations will smooth over these economic wounds.”
In fact, few on Wall Street currently expect this political deadlock to derail the S&P 500’s rally, which has gained 14% year-to-date. However, the shutdown’s suspension of economic data releases—this traditional “political drama”—has disrupted the trading rhythm of some investors.
The U.S. September nonfarm payrolls data, halted today due to the shutdown, is a prime example. As most U.S. government agencies began closing on Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Labor suspended the release of numerous official economic data, including the monthly nonfarm payrolls report originally scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on Friday.
This left many trading floors and investment firms unusually “quiet” on the first Friday of October, as the data suspension upended the usual routine for Wall Street’s nonfarm payrolls day.
Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock, said: “Normally, economists and strategists would be ready by 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; now you might be able to do other things—you don’t have to stare at the jobs report all morning on Friday.”
In London’s financial district, Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, quipped: “Now, you can actually enjoy a long lunch on Friday.” For him, the nonfarm report typically arrives in the afternoon local time.
Regardless, the U.S. government’s shutdown drama may not end soon. Per the schedule, to observe the Yom Kippur holiday, neither the U.S. House nor Senate had votes planned for Thursday. The Senate is expected to reconvene at 11:30 a.m. local time on the 3rd to vote on a temporary funding bill to extend federal funding.
Based on the current situation, Senate Democrats are likely to block the bill again. If the bill fails on the 3rd, the Senate is not expected to meet over the weekend, potentially delaying further votes until next week—meaning the federal shutdown will likely extend into next week.
Some traders are now concerned that if the data drought lasts weeks, it could make the Fed’s monetary policy path less clear, as the Fed will lack government data to guide its decisions. Moreover, the longer the shutdown persists, the more likely it is to drag on U.S. economic growth.
Company News
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The refinery, located near Los Angeles International Airport and SoFi Stadium, spans over 5 square kilometers, processes 269,000 barrels of crude daily, and accounts for over 16% of California’s refining capacity, supplying over 40% of Southern California’s aviation fuel and over 20% of vehicle fuel.
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The fund also bought Baidu shares worth $2.97 million on Wednesday and $6.9 million on Tuesday.
Oracle Confirms Users Targeted by Hackers with Ransom Demands
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Fujitsu Expands Strategic Partnership with Nvidia
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Nvidia’s AI Chip Exports to UAE Stalled
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