Tesla Stock Slides Despite Record Quarterly Deliveries as Investors Focus on AI

$TSLA crushed delivery expectations in the third quarter, hitting a record 497,099 vehicles. That’s a 29% jump from the second quarter and a 7.4% increase compared to the same period last year. This milestone marked Tesla’s return to growth after two quarters of decline. Year-to-date through September, Tesla has delivered 1,217,902 cars, which is still 5.9% below last year’s total.

Why the Big Beat Happened

A key factor behind the surge was the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicle purchases, which expired at the end of the third quarter. This incentive, introduced under President Trump’s tax-and-spending bill, likely prompted buyers to rush in before the credit vanished.

Forecasting deliveries became tricky because of the shifting policy. Wall Street analysts had expected about 443,000 deliveries, but Tesla beat that by more than 54,000 vehicles. Even higher estimates, such as 470,000 or 481,000 vehicles from independent analysts, were surpassed.

Ford’s strong EV sales, which rose 85% in September, gave analysts a benchmark, but Tesla still exceeded expectations thanks to robust U.S. sales and improving European markets.

Stock Movements Don’t Always Follow Delivery Numbers

Despite the record deliveries, Tesla’s stock fell 5.1% to $436 on Thursday, illustrating how forward-looking the market can be. Over the past three months, Tesla shares have climbed 52%, rising 78% over the past year. These moves aren’t driven purely by vehicle deliveries but by excitement over Tesla’s AI initiatives.

Tesla launched an AI-powered robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June, with plans to expand nationwide. The company also aims to sell AI-trained humanoid robots in 2026. This AI potential has led analysts to raise price targets, with an average target now around $347, up $33 since August. Some, like Wedbush, even project a $2 trillion market cap by early 2026 and $3 trillion by year-end if Tesla’s autonomous and robotics roadmap scales successfully.

The Car Business Still Matters

While AI grabs headlines, Tesla’s car business is what funds these ambitions. The third-quarter deliveries help the company continue spending billions on technology like Nvidia chips for AI projects.

Looking ahead, the fourth quarter will be closely watched, especially now that the $7,500 EV tax credit has ended. Consensus estimates predict 465,000 vehicles will be sold, down from 495,570 in the same quarter last year.

Investors are also keeping an eye on upcoming developments:

• Model 2: A lower-priced Tesla around $30,000, including tax credits, could attract more buyers.

• Semi Truck: Tesla plans mass production of its electric truck by 2026, aiming to enter the self-driving trucking market, more than nine years after its initial unveiling.

What This Means for Investors

Tesla’s story shows how policy, technology, and market expectations interact. Strong delivery numbers alone don’t guarantee a rising stock. Instead, investors are weighing long-term growth potential in AI, robotics, and new vehicle models alongside traditional EV sales.

In short, Tesla’s record quarter demonstrates operational strength, but the market is betting on the company’s future in AI and autonomous tech to drive the next phase of growth. How well Tesla balances its car business with these ambitious projects will be the key to whether its stock continues to soar.