Amazon Kicks Off the Holiday Season with Its Own Stress Test for US Consumers

Every October, the US retail battlefield quietly awakens. And leading the charge, as always, is Amazon $AMZN . Its “Prime Big Deal Days” has become America’s unofficial start to the holiday shopping season — something like a US version of Singles’ Day.

This week, Amazon’s two-day event runs Tuesday and Wednesday, offering “millions of deals” exclusively for Prime members. Discounts run as deep as 65%, covering everything from electronics to daily essentials. Target and Walmart are jumping in too: Target $TGT ’s “Circle Week” offers up to 50% off for members, while Walmart $WMT  is opening its “Deals” event to everyone, giving Walmart+ subscribers early access.

Beneath all this shopping frenzy lies a bigger question — how strong is American consumer demand heading into the holidays?

October Has Become the New Start of Christmas

Traditionally, US shoppers waited for Thanksgiving and Black Friday to start their holiday shopping. But the pandemic changed that rhythm. When Amazon moved its July Prime Day to October in 2020, the timing stuck — and so did the early holiday mindset. Other retailers quickly followed, turning October into a new kind of “pre-season.”

Walmart put it plainly: “October has become a critical starting point for holiday prep.” Families now use it to stock up on essentials, buy decorations, and make small early splurges that set the tone for the season.

Discounts Bring Comfort in a High-Inflation World

Life hasn’t been easy for US consumers. Inflation is still high, interest rates are at multi-decade peaks, and credit card bills are piling up. So big sales like these offer a rare sense of relief — a way to feel smart about spending rather than guilty about it.

Mark Mathews, chief economist at the National Retail Federation, says shoppers are split into two camps: those who buy early fearing prices might rise, and those who wait for deeper discounts. The July Prime Day proved that appetite for deals is alive and well — US online sales that week hit $24.1 billion, up 30% from last year and more than double what Americans spent on Black Friday.

In other words, Americans may be cautious, but they’re still spending — strategically.

Back-to-School Spending Shows the Mood Is Holding Up

Retail data from August confirmed that momentum. Sales of apparel, sporting goods, books, and hobbies all beat expectations. Historically, back-to-school spending has been a leading indicator for end-of-year demand — and this year’s strength suggests the holiday season may surprise on the upside.

That said, the real shopping surge will still come in November and December. Retail analytics firm Sensormatic expects Black Friday and the Saturday before Christmas to be the two busiest days of the year.

My Take The Consumer Is Still Resilient but the Game Has Changed

Deloitte expects holiday sales to rise around 3% this year — modest, but steady. It signals that consumer resilience remains intact despite economic headwinds. The real shift, though, is structural. Growth now comes mainly from e-commerce, where shoppers compare prices, hunt for online-only discounts, and stretch their budgets through smarter spending.

To me, this marks a quiet “efficiency revolution” in retail. Growth no longer depends on impulse buying but on precision — data-driven discounts, algorithmic recommendations, and loyalty programs that keep customers spending just enough. Amazon, as always, is setting the pace not just in retail but in understanding how people think about money.

The Bottom Line

This October sale is more than a marketing event. It’s a stress test for the US consumer — and by extension, for the broader economy. If shoppers keep spending early and often, it means domestic demand remains solid. But if the enthusiasm fades once the discounts end, it could be an early sign of fatigue.

Either way, by the time the Black Friday dust settles, we’ll know just how much buying power the American consumer still has left.