Tonight’s Highlights | U.S., Japan, and France Caught in Political Whirlwinds; NYMEX Gold Breaks $4,000

Despite OpenAI and AMD’s partnership driving U.S. stocks to new highs, more investors are questioning how long the rally can last amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty.

 

On Tuesday (October 7) pre-market, all three major U.S. index futures edged higher, with the S&P 500 futures up 0.07%, Dow Jones futures up 0.11%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.13%.

 

Capital Economics analysts noted in a report that the U.S. AI boom isn’t over yet, despite having come a long way. However, Citigroup analysts warned that optimism around AI may be reaching its limit, with risks of profit-taking rising rapidly.

 

Meanwhile, multiple countries, including the U.S., are facing political risks. The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its second week, delaying key data releases, such as the nonfarm payrolls due last Friday and the U.S. August trade balance on Tuesday.

 

According to Carlyle Investment’s private data forecast, September U.S. nonfarm payrolls added only 17,000 jobs month-over-month—the weakest since the 2020 recession recovery.

 

Additionally, President Trump announced an expansion of truck tariffs to medium trucks, but the effective date was delayed to November 1. The Trump administration did not clarify if the tariffs apply to imports protected under the USMCA.

 

This makes the Fed’s future rate decisions more complex and unpredictable. Investors will need to watch key Fed speeches for clues, but the absence of critical data will undoubtedly increase the difficulty of market judgments.

 

These issues have sharply heightened investor risk aversion, with NYMEX gold futures hitting a record $4,000 per ounce on Monday evening. ING analysts pointed out that political turmoil in France and Japan has sparked fiscal concerns, further driving gold higher.

 

The euro and yen also face pressure, with investors trimming long positions.

 

Japan’s new LDP president Sanae Takaichi, elected in the recent party vote, may push for more aggressive expansionary fiscal policy, pressuring the yen. Pre-market Tuesday, USD/JPY touched the 151 level for the first time since March.

 

The euro continues to be impacted by the French government’s collapse, and the U.S. shutdown has amplified concerns about European political instability. Analysts noted that the euro retains some resilience because markets still believe the end of U.S. exceptionalism could mean prosperity for Europe.

 

However, it’s more likely the euro will have to pull back to match its weaker growth outlook.

Company News

Tesla May Launch Budget Model Y on Tuesday

 

Sources say Tesla will introduce a more affordable model to adapt to the new market after the U.S. EV tax credit ends. The entry-level Model Y reportedly cuts costs through optimized batteries and motors, removing some features and using lower-grade materials.

 

Multiple Wall Street Firms Raise AMD Price Targets

 

Driven by the massive AMD-OpenAI computing deal, several Wall Street firms upped AMD’s price targets: Morgan Stanley to $246, Bernstein to $200, and Jefferies to $300.

 

NYSE Owner Intercontinental Exchange May Invest in Prediction Platform Polymarket

 

Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the NYSE, rose over 4% pre-market Tuesday.

 

Reports say the company will invest in crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket, buying ~$2 billion in equity, potentially announced as early as Tuesday. This marks a mainstream stock exchange entering crypto.

 

Airbus A320 Surpasses Boeing 737 as All-Time Delivery Champion

 

Cirium data shows Airbus A320 series deliveries reached 12,260 since 1988, breaking Boeing’s decades-long record.

 

AstraZeneca’s Blockbuster Hypertension Drug Hits Primary Endpoint

 

AstraZeneca said on October 7 that its investigational hypertension drug baxdrostat met its primary goal in a late-stage trial for resistant hypertension, significantly lowering blood pressure. AstraZeneca plans to submit baxdrostat for approval by year-end, forecasting peak annual sales over $5 billion.

 

The drug is also in trials for chronic kidney disease and heart failure prevention.

 

Anthropic Models Integrate into IBM Software Ecosystem

 

Anthropic said Tuesday its AI models will be integrated into IBM’s software suite, targeting software engineers at large enterprises to automate tasks like code modernization. IBM plans to add Claude to more software soon.