TD Securities: Gold to Hit $4,400 by Mid-2026, Any Pullback Is a Buying Opportunity

 

Spot gold broke through $4,000 per ounce on Wednesday, highlighting intense market enthusiasm for precious metals and widespread risk aversion.  

 

However, the rapid rally has sparked “fear of heights” among some investors, with analysts suggesting a possible short-term pullback. In a report, TD Securities’ Commodity Strategy Head Bart Melek said price dips are buying opportunities.  

 

Melek noted that, given the speed and scale of gold’s rise, some investors may take profits soon. Since breaking out in August, gold has surged over 20% in two months and more than 50% since the start of the year.  

 

This makes gold look somewhat overbought, meaning any doubts about Fed easing or news increasing market volatility could trigger a drop, potentially pulling gold back to $3,600 per ounce.  

 

Despite the rising risk of a correction, Melek firmly believes this won’t derail gold’s bull market. He expects the uptrend to remain strong into the first half of next year.  

Continued Rise in 2026  

TD Securities forecasts an average gold price of ~$4,250 per ounce in 2026. With the Fed gradually easing inflation pressures, ongoing central bank buying, and investors turning bullish, the average price could hit a new high above $4,400 per ounce in the first six months of 2026.  

 

Melek pointed out that the Fed not only wants to cut rates but may face growing political pressure to lower them more aggressively than expected, a key driver of gold’s rise.  

 

Additionally, investment demand is strengthening. He emphasized that high short-term rates previously deterred fund managers from going long on gold, causing them to miss much of this year’s rally. But as the Fed cuts rates, the cost of holding gold is dropping, and institutions have been entering the market since late summer.  

 

Natixis, one of the first to predict gold would break $4,000 per ounce this year, also expects a near-term pullback of 5% to 10%.  

 

The bank’s precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah said he remains neutral on gold’s outlook through 2026, adding that volatility is likely in the next two to three months. But he believes gold is more likely to keep rising next year.  

 

He also stressed that if Congress passes a new funding bill to end the government shutdown, now in its second week, gold prices could face pressure.