APAC Market Wrap - Oct 9

 

China Stock Market: The Shanghai Composite broke through the 3,900-point mark, hitting a high not seen since August 2015, closing up 1.32%. The Shenzhen Component rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.73%.

 

By sector, nonferrous metals, nuclear power, and rare earth magnets led gains, while film & theater, tourism, and education saw the largest declines.  

 

Hong Kong Stock Market: Hong Kong’s three major indices were mixed at the close. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.29% to 26,752.59 points; the Tech Index dropped 0.66% to 6,471.34 points; the H-share Index edged up 0.07% to 9,530.13 points.  

 

Consumer goods, gold, and nonferrous metal stocks performed strongly, while pharmaceuticals and semiconductors generally pulled back.  

 

Japan Stock Market: The Nikkei 225 rebounded sharply by 1.77%, closing at 48,580.44 points, up 845.45 points, setting a new record high.  

 

By industry, 20 sectors rose, including information & communication, securities & commodity futures, nonferrous metals, and oil & coal, while 13 fell, such as marine transport, fisheries & agriculture, transportation equipment, and warehousing.  

 

South Korea Stock Market: Closed today.  

 

Australia Stock Market: The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.25% to 8,969.80 points.

 

Construction materials, aerospace, and semiconductors saw strong gains, while industrial products, cyclical retail, and apparel & accessories posted larger declines.  

 

Singapore Stock Market: The Straits Times Index fell 0.36% to 4,456.30 points.

 

Agriculture, medical distribution, and steel surged, while diversified media, construction materials, and aerospace saw significant declines.  

 

Malaysia Stock Market: The FTSE Malaysia KLCI rose 0.13% to 1,629.67 points.

 

Technology, healthcare, and closed-end funds gained, while commercial trusts and financial services declined.  

Key Events

India Launches AI-Powered E-Commerce Payment Pilot  

 

India’s National Payments Corporation, fintech firm Razorpay, and Microsoft’s OpenAI announced on Thursday a joint effort to launch an AI-driven payment feature on the ChatGPT platform.  

 

Currently in pilot phase, the project leverages India’s homegrown Unified Payments Interface (UPI), allowing users to complete shopping payments directly on ChatGPT.  

 

From “Stargate” to “Japan Computing Hub”: SoftBank and Oracle Build Sovereign Cloud and AI Platform  

 

U.S. cloud giant Oracle (ORCL.US) and Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank Group (SFTBF.US) are collaborating on a major initiative in Japan to provide secure, scalable sovereign cloud and AI training/inference computing services for large institutions.

 

This follows their joint $500 billion “Stargate” project, signaling a deeper “AI strategic alliance” and Son’s accelerating push to realize his ambitious AI vision.  

 

Philippine Central Bank Unexpectedly Cuts Rates by 25 Basis Points Amid Corruption Scandal  

 

On Thursday, the Philippine central bank unexpectedly lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, warning of a deteriorating economic outlook due to protests over alleged government corruption that have dented market confidence.

 

Only 7 of 26 economists surveyed predicted the move, with most expecting a pause in the easing cycle started over a year ago.  

Institutional Views

Goldman Sachs: U.S. Stock Rally Far From Over, Not Yet in Bubble Territory  

 

In a recent report, Goldman Sachs’ Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer wrote, “Current investor behavior and market pricing show some similarities to past bubbles, but we see key differences.”  

 

Goldman noted parallels with speculative bubbles: rising U.S. valuations, markets led by a few stocks, and increasing capital intensity. The dominance of AI tech giants mirrors the late-1990s dot-com bubble.  

 

Macquarie: If Fed Makes Policy Mistake, Gold Could Surge Further  

 

Analysts note gold’s performance often shines during financial and political turmoil. Gold broke $1,000 during the 2008 crisis aftermath, crossed $2,000 during the COVID pandemic, and hit $3,000 in 2022 amid Trump’s tariff-driven trade tensions.

 

Now, breaking $4,000, it coincides with what analysts call “the most direct challenge to Fed autonomy in decades.”  

 

Trump’s public threats against Fed Chair Powell and attempts to oust Governor Cook have fueled speculation that the Fed may lose policy independence under political pressure.

 

Macquarie analysts say a “clear policy mistake” by a politically constrained Fed could drive gold’s rally even higher, potentially matching the 1970s’ 15-fold surge amid soaring inflation and the gold standard’s collapse.  

 

TD Securities: De-Dollarization and Fed Easing Expectations Push Gold to Break $4,400 in 2026  

 

TD Securities’ Commodity Strategy Head Bart Melek said that with the Fed easing policy amid rising inflation, continued central bank buying, and private funds going long, gold could break $4,400 per ounce in the first half of 2026.  

 

Fueled by de-dollarization talks, gold has seen record gains, surpassing $4,000 per ounce. Investors’ “fear of missing out” (FOMO) and expectations of Fed rate cuts due to the government shutdown are driving gold exposure.

 

However, Melek warns gold appears overbought, and doubts about Fed easing pace or rising volatility could trigger a sharp short-term pullback, potentially reversing late-summer gains.  

 

Citi: Oil Market Sentiment Remains Bearish  

 

Citigroup said the oil market’s overall sentiment is bearish, though views differ on the extent of the downturn.

 

Analysts including Francesco Martoccia noted, “Market conviction varies on how far oil prices will fall. Some clients question whether Brent’s $60 per barrel floor is enough to trigger a supply-demand response to balance a global liquid fuels market widely seen as heading toward oversupply.”  

 

Others expect a milder, more orderly adjustment, with anticipated inventory builds accumulating outside key pricing hubs like Cushing.

 

Analysts concluded that within the energy complex, consensus sees crude and natural gas fundamentals turning increasingly bearish, but geopolitical risks make large-scale shorting difficult.  

 

Hedge Fund Giant: Weak Dollar and High Yields to Deepen U.S. Stock Underperformance  

 

Man Group, the world’s largest listed hedge fund, said a weakening dollar and high Treasury yields signal investors should prepare for deepening U.S. stock underperformance. Chief Market Strategist Kristina Hooper said, “We’re seeing the U.S.’s safe-haven status erode.”

 

She added, “Investors should rebalance portfolios, take profits from U.S. holdings, and increase exposure to Europe, Asia, and emerging markets.”  

 

Hooper noted that as investors favor gold over Treasuries as a safe haven, higher yields could pressure U.S. stocks, especially long-duration assets like tech. Corporate earnings may face headwinds from tariffs and policies like H-1B visa disputes.

 

She believes expectations for massive AI spending may not be enough to drive U.S. stocks higher amid these headwinds.