How High Will Gold Go? Goldman Sachs: $4,900 Next Year

Gold has firmly crossed $4,000, and those who’ve been dollar-cost averaging for a year are already reaping big gains.

The question now is: how can we predict gold’s future trajectory?

Today, I’ll summarize the latest institutional views (both bullish and bearish).

Wall Street banks are broadly optimistic about gold’s future, with many raising price targets after the recent rally.

The most bullish is Goldman Sachs, which has upped its end-2026 gold price forecast to $4,900 per ounce.

Goldman’s bullish case: Persistent and robust gold buying by central banks, especially those in emerging markets diversifying reserves to reduce dollar reliance, is the main driver. Additionally, strong inflows into gold ETFs are a key factor in sustaining price gains.

JPMorgan predicts gold will hold at $4,000 per ounce through Q2 2026, citing gold as a hedge against three major risks: ongoing geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and rising risks of global economic slowdown.

ING forecasts $4,150 per ounce for 2026, driven by continued central bank demand and expectations of a more dovish Fed stance.

Summary of bullish arguments from banks and financial circles:

Central bank demand: Emerging market central banks are expected to keep diversifying forex reserves, providing strong support for gold prices.
Geopolitical instability: Ongoing global conflicts and political tensions will continue to drive safe-haven demand.
Inflation pressure: If inflation remains high, investors will flock to gold to preserve purchasing power.
Weak dollar: A declining dollar value makes gold more attractive to foreign buyers.
Fed policy: A shift to rate cuts lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Rising retail investment: Easy access via ETFs and online platforms is bringing a new wave of retail investors to the market.

Of course, there are cautious voices too. Bank of America sees a potential short-term pullback, as profit-taking after overbought conditions could push prices back to the $3,800-$3,900 range before the next rally.

Bearish arguments include:

Overbought market: Rapid price gains raise concerns, with traders’ profit-taking likely to trigger a notable pullback.
Stronger dollar risk: Unexpected dollar strength could pressure gold prices downward.
Geopolitical easing: Resolution of major global conflicts could reduce demand for gold as a safe haven.
Hawkish Fed policy: A more aggressive Fed stance on inflation could pose resistance to gold.
Lack of intrinsic yield: Gold’s inability to generate income makes it less appealing to some investors, especially in a rising-rate environment.
Volatility: Gold’s inherent market volatility means sharp price drops are always possible.

Clearly, in the short term, while technical analysts see pullback risks, the bulls currently dominate.

Personally, I can’t predict gold’s short-term moves, but I’m firmly bullish long-term.

For dollar-cost averaging investors, understanding gold’s long-term logic means not sweating short-term fluctuations.

Dollar-cost averaging is about forgoing timing, betting on the long-term bull market, and capturing average returns from gold’s big run.