APAC Market Wrap - Oct 29

 

China Stock Market: At close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index gained 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index climbed 2.93%.

 

Sectors leading gains included Hainan, photovoltaics, and non-ferrous metals, while banking and cinema chains lagged.  

 

Hong Kong Stock Market: Closed for holiday.  

 

Japan Stock Market: The Nikkei Average rebounded sharply by 2.17%, adding 1,088.47 yen to close at 51,307.65 yen, setting a new all-time high.  

 

Sector-wise, non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, construction, and information/communication rose, while 29 sectors—including pulp/paper, real estate, air transport, other financials, and warehousing/transport—fell notably.  

 

Korea Stock Market: The KOSPI Index rose 1.76%. Leading sectors included conglomerates, two-way media, machinery, communication equipment, and non-ferrous metals. Publishing, hotels, internet, cosmetics, and video declined.  

 

Australia Stock Market: The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.96% to 8,926.200.

 

Strong sectors included alternative energy, apparel, steel, and semiconductors; aerospace, biotechnology, and healthcare services weakened.  

 

Singapore Stock Market: The FTSE Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) dipped 0.23%.

 

Gains came from personalized services, forestry products, furniture, and industrial distribution; declines hit packaging/containers, diversified financials, software, medical equipment, and pharmaceutical manufacturers.  

 

Malaysia Stock Market: The FTSE Malaysia KLSE Index eased 0.13%.

 

Industrial goods and utilities edged higher, while communications/media and healthcare saw mild declines.  

Key Events  

SoftBank and others consider joining Japan’s $550 billion U.S. investment plan  

 

Multiple reports indicate Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi met U.S. President Trump in Tokyo on Tuesday, reaffirming defense and economic security ties.  

 

The leaders signed a document confirming Japan’s prior commitment to invest $550 billion in U.S. semiconductors, critical minerals, and shipbuilding, alongside increased purchases of U.S. agricultural and other products.  

 

The investment spans energy, AI infrastructure, and critical minerals, potentially totaling ~$400 billion via equity, loans, and state-backed guarantees.  

 

Per a White House fact sheet, ~20 Japanese and U.S. firms—including SoftBank, Mitsubishi Electric, and Hitachi—expressed interest.  

 

Korean stocks up 70% YTD, topping global gains! JPMorgan raises target: at least 20% more upside in next year  

 

Korea’s KOSPI has surged nearly 70% year-to-date, leading global markets.  

 

JPMorgan says the index remains undervalued, with room for further gains short- to medium-term. Key drivers include top-weighted Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, fueled by soaring AI memory chip demand.  

 

Fearing Russia’s fate? India’s central bank accelerates gold repatriation  

 

Since Western nations froze Russia’s reserves, India has sharply increased gold repatriation. The Reserve Bank of India now holds over 65% of its gold domestically—nearly double four years ago.  

 

Tuesday’s semi-annual report showed ~64 tons returned in the first half of the fiscal year ending September. With gold prices rising, its share in reserves hit 13.92% (vs. 11.70% in March).  

 

Traditionally, India stores some gold with the Bank of England and BIS.  

 

Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoC in rare simultaneous meetings: rate decisions within 24 hours!  

 

The Fed’s latest rate decision is this week’s global highlight, but it’s not alone.  

 

Consensus expects a 25 bps cut after the two-day FOMC meeting. Hours earlier, the Bank of Canada announces its decision. The ECB Governing Council and Bank of Japan hold two-day meetings starting Wednesday, with outcomes Thursday.  

 

Analysts call this rare alignment—at least since early 2021 when all four discussed rates on the same day.  

Institutional Views

LBMA forecasts gold nearing $5,000/oz in one year, silver and others to rise  

 

LBMA conference delegates in Kyoto predict gold at $4,980/oz in 12 months—up ~27% from current levels. Geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariff uncertainty, and FOMO drove gold to a record $4,381/oz on October 20. Silver is seen rising from ~$46/oz to $59/oz. Platinum from $1,544/oz to $1,816/oz; palladium from $1,364/oz to $1,709/oz.  

 

HSBC: Gold to peak in H1 2026 above $4,400/oz  

 

Despite early-week pressure, HSBC sees gold’s rally extending into 2026, peaking in H1. Drivers include safe-haven flows, widening deficits, Fed independence risks, and U.S. fiscal strain. Strong ETF and physical inflows will support prices.

 

If Fed cuts less than expected, momentum may slow, but dollar weakness should sustain gains into early 2026. HSBC targets $3,700–$4,050/oz for year-end (midpoint $3,950/oz), $3,600–$4,400/oz in 2026, peaking above $4,400/oz, then $3,800/oz by year-end 2026.  

 

Mitsubishi UFJ: GBP may stay under pressure from rate cut bets and growth fears  

 

Economist Derek Halpenny says rising BoE cut expectations and UK growth concerns could weaken GBP vs. EUR short-term. Last week’s soft inflation data fueled earlier cut bets. Mitsubishi UFJ sees EUR/GBP rising to 0.9000, but a confidence-boosting November budget from Chancellor Reeves could spark a rebound.  

 

BofA: BoJ likely holds this month with hawkish tone, next hike in early 2026  

 

Bank of America expects the BoJ to hold rates in October but signal confidence in above-target underlying inflation with hawkish language, setting up a January 2026 hike. Base case: 25 bps increase in January 2026 on improving wage growth and services inflation.

 

Stronger tightening signals could strengthen JPY later this year, but short-term U.S.-Japan yield spreads and summit politics favor USD resilience.