ADDX GO Market Morning Wrap - 30th Oct

Stock Market

On Friday (October 31), the three major U.S. indices had mixed results, with the Dow and S&P pulling back from highs, while the Nasdaq hit a new record high.  

 

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16% to 47,632 points; the S&P 500 dipped 0.3 points to 6,890.59 points; both indices briefly refreshed highs during the session but pulled back sharply after Fed Chair Powell's speech.  

 

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.55% to 23,958.47 points, surpassing Tuesday’s record close—this marks the index’s fourth consecutive session of new highs, even briefly breaking the 24,000 mark intraday.  

 

Large-cap tech stocks were mostly higher: Nvidia rose 2.99% to $207.04, continuing to refresh highs, with its market cap first standing firm above $5 trillion at close. Intraday, it surged over 5%, peaking at $212.19.  

 

Apple rose 0.26% to $269.70, also hitting a record high, with a market cap of $4.002 trillion; Microsoft fell 0.10%, with a market cap of $4.025 trillion—meaning U.S. stocks for the first time had three companies exceeding $4 trillion at close.  

 

 

The Fed announced a 25-basis-point cut to the federal funds rate target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, as widely expected, marking its second cut this year.  

 

But Powell said in the press conference that there is “significant disagreement” within the Fed on a December move. He emphasized that a December rate cut is “far from a done deal”—a statement that heavily impacted risk assets trading at the time.  

 

Michael Rosen, Chief Investment Officer at Angeles Investments, commented: “Powell’s remarks reflect internal divisions: one side pushes for more aggressive easing, the other worries inflation is still too high.”  

 

Rosen added: “We also believe the market’s expectations for the pace and magnitude of future rate cuts are too high. With inflation above target, monetary policy may remain moderately restrictive, while nominal rates stay below nominal GDP growth.”

 

Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed whisperer,” commented that the FOMC overall does not agree with the market’s prior high pricing for a December cut, clearly an attempt by the Fed to reclaim some policy flexibility.

Global Hotspots  

UN General Assembly 33rd Time Demands U.S. End Cuban Embargo  

 

On October 29 local time, the 80th UN General Assembly passed a resolution with overwhelming majority demanding the U.S. terminate its economic, commercial, and financial embargo on Cuba—this marks the 33rd consecutive year of such a resolution. However, UNGA resolutions are not binding on member states.  

 

U.S. Announces New Sanctions on Russia, Targeting Two Oil Companies  

 

On October 29 local time, the U.S. announced new sanctions on Russia, focusing on two major oil firms—Lukoil and Rosneft.

 

The two companies and their 34 subsidiaries are listed, covering oil & gas exploration, production, and development. U.S. citizens and firms are prohibited from transacting with them, and any entities they own 50% or more are automatically restricted.  

 

Poland Maintains Partial Ban on Ukrainian Agricultural Imports  

 

On October 29 local time, Poland’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said despite EU adjustments to trade rules with Ukraine, Poland will maintain partial import bans on Ukrainian agricultural products.

 

The ministry’s statement noted the new EU-Ukraine trade deal “applies to goods imports across the entire EU,” but some provisions were not modified, so Poland’s ban on Ukrainian wheat, corn, rapeseed, sunflower seeds, and certain processed products remains indefinite.  

 

U.S.-Canada Trade Talks Halted; Trump Meets Carney for First Time  

 

Canada PM Carney said he and U.S. President Trump had a “very good” conversation in South Korea on October 29—their first face-to-face since Trump halted trade talks with Canada on the 23rd. Trump posted on social media: “We’re in South Korea, not to see Canada.”  

 

Fed Cuts Rates Another 25 Basis Points  

 

The Federal Reserve Board on the 29th announced lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. This is the Fed’s second cut after September 17, and the fifth since September 2024.  

 

Powell: Data Gaps May Justify Pausing Rate Adjustments in December  

 

Fed Chair Powell said the Fed is using PriceStats and Adobe data to monitor inflation; private data cannot replace official statistics.

 

He added that during the shutdown (now in its fourth week), the Fed is unlikely to have a very detailed economic picture; it’s imaginable the shutdown could affect December’s meeting, with data scarcity necessitating greater caution—data gaps may justify pausing rate adjustments.  

Q3 Earnings Summary  

Microsoft Q1 Revenue $77.67B, Above Expectations  

 

Microsoft Q1 revenue $77.67B, up 18% YoY (est. $75.55B); net income $27.747B, up 12%; Intelligent Cloud revenue $30.9B (est. $30.18B); capex $19.39B (est. $23.04B); EPS $3.72 (est. $3.67).  

 

Alphabet Q3 Revenue $102.35B, Above Expectations  

 

Alphabet Q3 revenue $102.35B, up 16% YoY (est. $99.85B); Q3 Google Cloud revenue $15.16B (est. $14.75B); Q3 Google Services revenue $87.05B (est. $84.67B); Q3 Google Search & Other revenue $56.57B (est. $54.99B); Q3 YouTube Ads revenue $10.26B (est. $10.03B); Q3 Google Ads revenue $74.18B (est. $72.46B). Alphabet forecasts full-year capex $91B–$93B (est. $84.04B).  

 

Meta Q3 EPS $1.05, Far Below Last Year  

 

Meta Q3 revenue $51.24B, up 26% YoY (est. $49.59B). Advertising revenue $50.08B, up 26% (est. $48.59B); other revenue $690M, up 59% (est. $597.4M). Q3 operating profit $20.54B, up 18%; EPS $1.05, vs. $6.03 last year. Meta forecasts Q4 revenue $56B–$59B (est. $57.38B); full-year capex $70B–$72B (est. $69.3B).  

 

Starbucks Q4 Net Revenue $9.6B, Above Expectations  

 

Starbucks Q4 same-store sales up 1% (est. -0.48%); net revenue $9.6B (est. $9.34B); adj. EPS $0.52 (est. $0.55).  

 

eBay Q3 Net Revenue $2.82B, Above Expectations  

 

eBay Q3 net revenue $2.82B, above expected $2.73B. eBay forecasts Q4 net revenue $2.83B–$2.89B (est. $2.8B).  

Other Company News  

Microsoft CEO: Will Continue Increasing AI Investments  

 

Microsoft’s CEO said the company will continue ramping up AI investments in both capital and talent to seize vast opportunities ahead.

 

Porsche-Piëch Family Considers Investing in Volkswagen Diesel Engine Division  

 

The Porsche-Piëch family is reportedly exploring investment in Volkswagen’s $6 billion diesel engine division.

Forex & Commodities  

International crude oil futures settled slightly higher. WTI crude futures rose 0.55% to $60.48/barrel; Brent crude futures gained 0.81% to $64.92/barrel.  

 

COMEX gold futures fell 1.04% to $3,941.7/oz; COMEX silver futures rose 0.78% to $47.14/oz.  

 

NY close, USD index -0.09% to 98.73; most non-USD currencies rose.  

Key Events  

Brent Crude Down 1.9%, Market Weighs Russia Sanctions vs. OPEC+ Output Hike  

 

Brent crude contracts fell about 1.9% Tuesday, on track for a third consecutive decline. Investors are weighing U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies against potential OPEC+ production increase plans.  

 

“Traders balancing U.S.-China trade talks progress with broader supply outlook,” ANZ said in a morning report.  

 

Brent and WTI posted their largest weekly gains since June last week in response to Trump’s first Ukraine-related sanctions in his second term, targeting Lukoil and Rosneft.  

 

Germany’s economy minister said the U.S. government has provided written assurance that Rosneft’s German operations will be exempt from sanctions because these assets are no longer under Russian control.  

 

“Trump’s exemption for Germany makes it feel like there may be more wiggle room in these sanctions, easing immediate concerns about a sharp supply squeeze. We are indeed seeing some risk-off trading today,” Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said.  

 

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said Tuesday that due to spare capacity, sanctions will have limited impact on oil-exporting countries.  

Cryptocurrency  

Bitcoin fell 1.27% in 24h to $112,715.  

 

Ethereum (ETH-USD) down 3.46% to $3,981.25.  

 

XRP (XRP-USD) down 1.19%, BNB (BNB-USD) down 3.12%, Solana (SOL-USD) down 2.36%.  

 

Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) down 3.35%, Cardano (ADA-USD) down 3.28%.  

Key Events  

France Proposes National Bitcoin Reserve  

 

On October 28, France’s conservative party UDR proposed a groundbreaking bill to establish a national Bitcoin reserve system. If passed, France would stand out in the EU on cryptocurrency policy.  

 

According to reports, the proposal submitted to the French parliament suggests setting up a public institution to manage a total of 420,000 BTC—~2% of total supply—making Bitcoin effectively a state-backed strategic asset.  

 

If implemented, France’s holdings would exceed the U.S.’s 326,588 BTC, becoming the world’s largest sovereign Bitcoin holder.