APAC Market Wrap - Oct 31
China Stock Market: The Shanghai Index rose 1.85% cumulatively this month, briefly topping 4,000 points and hitting a 10-year high.
The ChiNext Index fell 1.56% cumulatively, while the STAR 50 adjusted with volatility, down over 5% this month. Sectors: Medicine, film & cinema, AI applications led gains; insurance, storage chips, CPO led declines.
Hong Kong Stock Market: At close, Hang Seng Index down 1.43% to 25,906.65 points; Tech Index down 2.37% to 5,098.08 points; State-owned Enterprises Index down 1.91% to 9,168.58 points.
Performance: Advertising & marketing, pharmaceuticals, agricultural products, hotels, biotech strong; rail, furniture, semiconductors, environmental engineering mixed.
Japan Stock Market: Nikkei Average surged 2.12%, refreshing record highs for multiple days, closing at 52,411.34 points, up 1,085.73 points.
Sectors: 23 up including electric power & gas, food, non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, information & communication; 10 down including transportation equipment, metal products, pharmaceuticals, pulp & paper, services.
Korea Stock Market: KOSPI up 0.50%.
Sectors: Air freight, autos, IT services, displays surged; airlines, non-ferrous metals, conglomerates, communication equipment, electrical products fell.
Australia Stock Market: S&P/ASX 200 down 0.04% to 8,881.900 points.
Sectors: Diversified financials, apparel, industrial products, medical equipment surged; drug manufacturers, aerospace, industrial distribution, furniture declined sharply.
Singapore Stock Market: FTSE Singapore Straits Times Index down 0.16%.
Sectors: Forestry products, drug manufacturers, education up; apparel, interactive media, cyclical retail down.
Malaysia Stock Market: FTSE Malaysia KLSE Index down 0.31%.
Sectors: Real estate, energy up; transportation & logistics, real estate, business trusts slight declines.
Key Events
Singapore Manufacturing Sentiment Remains Cautious Amid Ongoing Global Challenges
Latest Singapore EDB survey shows local manufacturing firms maintain cautious confidence amid persistent global economic headwinds. About 60% of respondents expect business conditions to stay roughly the same through March 2026, but some have downgraded outlooks.
Precision engineering most pessimistic—~30% predict worsening conditions over next six months, mainly from machinery & systems sub-sector worries over prolonged client decision cycles amid trade policy and tariff uncertainty.
Will Humans Stop Drinking? Alcohol Stocks Lose Over $800B in Market Cap in Four Years
Global alcohol makers in downcycle; stats show beer, wine, spirits producers' market cap down $830B from June 2021 peak.
Some face massive financial pressure; rising tariffs, high rates curbing consumption, commodity price hikes worsen woes.
Morgan Stanley analyst Sarah Simon: Structural changes in alcohol industry—consumers drinking less. Producers now face revenue drops plus high debt and frequent management changes, so stock declines may worsen.
First Since 1993! MSCI Emerging Markets Index Up Every Month YTD…
As October winds down, MSCI EM Index poised for 10th straight monthly gain, fueled by AI boom and USD depreciation driving capital inflows.
Data: Index down 0.4% in Friday Asia session but up ~4.5% MTD, locking in another green monthly close. Signals MSCI EM up every month YTD—last "perfect 10" monthly streak was 1993.
Musk Compromises? NASA: SpaceX Submits "Accelerated Moon Landing" Production Plan!
Elon Musk's SpaceX says it has proposed a "simplified plan" for astronaut moon landing to NASA. Earlier, NASA acting chief Sean Duffy criticized rocket development delays.
In Thursday company blog: "We have submitted and are formally evaluating simplified mission architecture and operations to accelerate return to the Moon while enhancing astronaut safety."
Precious Metals Bull Not Over! World Bank Joins Bulls: Gold & Silver to Keep Rising Next Year
Despite recent sharp pullback from record highs, analysts remain bullish on gold. World Bank joins the chorus, forecasting gold and silver prices to rise next year.
In latest commodity outlook, World Bank sees 2026 average gold ~$3,575/oz. Also expects silver average $41/oz next year.
World Bank analysts predict 2026 gold up another 5%, nearly double 2015-2019 average.
Institutional Views
Wells Fargo Raises Gold Price Forecast
Wells Fargo Investment Research: Raises end-2026 gold target from $3,900–4,100/oz to $4,500–4,700/oz.
Goldman Sachs: Copper Breakout Hard to Sustain Without Big Inventory Drop
Goldman: Copper unlikely to hold above $11,000/ton without significant inventory decline. Price hit record high Wednesday on global supply worries after major mine disruptions and producer cuts.
Goldman analysts: "We don't see anticipated fundamental tightness materializing in next six months. Even with sharp refined copper output drop, we still see small surplus by 2026."
Morgan Stanley: Labor Market Slowdown Could Still Justify Rate Cut
Morgan Stanley Investment Management CIO Jim Caron: Powell's December cut uncertainty may heighten market doubts on 2026 path.
"Market hears this and thinks, wait—if still debating one more cut now, how sure are we rates hit 3% in 2026?" But adds labor slowdown could provide December cut rationale. "I think this doesn't change big-picture direction."