GoAI Market Morning Wrap - 4th Nov

Stock Market  

Last night into this morning, at the start of November—known as U.S. stocks' strongest month—the market showed worrying signs: Tech giants kept pushing indices higher with a flood of AI deal announcements like Amazon partnering with OpenAI, but broad market sentiment stayed deeply sluggish.  

 

At the close, the S&P 500 rose 0.17% to 6,851.97 points; the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.46% to 23,834.72 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.48% to 47,336.68 points.  

 

 

Memory chip stocks rallied on rumors Samsung paused DDR5 contract quotes: Micron up 4.88%, SanDisk up 3.85%, Western Digital up 5.2%—all hitting record highs.  

 

Monday's big focus: Amazon AWS, the world's largest cloud platform, signed a $38 billion computing deal with OpenAI. That means 4 of the "Magnificent Seven" now have tight ties with the San Francisco startup.  

 

At Monday's close, Amazon added $1,045 billion in market cap—about RMB 7.437 trillion.  

 

 

Same day, Microsoft announced a $9.7 billion computing deal with Australian cloud provider IREN. Cloud firm Lambda also said Monday it landed a Microsoft deal worth "billions."  

 

With all the news mentioning Nvidia chips—plus Microsoft President Smith revealing "we got the license to export Nvidia chips to UAE"—the AI chip leader rose over 2%, adding roughly $100 billion in market cap.  

 

Monday also saw Google issue $17.5 billion in U.S. bonds after €6.5 billion in Europe last week. Like Meta's $30 billion bond issue, Google's got strong demand—reportedly ~$90 billion in orders.  

 

Meanwhile, most U.S. stocks remain lackluster. The S&P 500 closed up Monday but saw over 400 components down intraday, with 315 still lower at the bell. This started showing in October—index hitting new highs but more components falling.  

 

So U.S. market correction pressure clashes with typical year-end holiday season strength.  

 

LPL Financial strategists: "Like the old saying, don't fight the tape—we agree. But another classic is that bull markets don't go straight up, even if it looks that way since April."  

 

They say when indices rise but breadth lags, it signals "early cracks" in the foundation. On the bright side, if a pullback hits now, seasonal strength could limit depth and duration.  

 

Over 30 years, November is U.S. stocks' best month. Bespoke data: Since 1928, S&P 500 up over 10% in first 10 months 40 times. Before this year, average November gain in those cases: 2.6%.  

 

Global Hotspots  

AI Deal News Everywhere  

 

Monday local time, Amazon AWS signed $38 billion computing deal with OpenAI. Amazon market cap up $1,045 billion—RMB 7.437 trillion.  

 

Microsoft signed $9.7 billion computing deal with Australian cloud firm IREN. Lambda announced Microsoft deal worth "billions."  

 

Microsoft President Smith: "Got license to export Nvidia chips to UAE."  

 

Capital markets: Google issued $17.5 billion U.S. bonds after €6.5 billion Europe; Eaton buying Boyd Corporation's thermal management for $9.5 billion; Vertiv to spend $1 billion on HVAC assets to boost liquid cooling.  

 

U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Startups Seal $1.4B Deal with Trump Admin  

 

U.S. rare earth magnet startups Vulcan Elements and ReElement announced Monday $1.4 billion support from Trump admin and private capital to build "U.S. rare earth magnet recycling chain." DoD gets warrants from both; Commerce gets $50 million Vulcan equity.  

Company News  

EV Subsidy End Hits U.S. Electric Vehicle Market Hard  

 

Multiple automakers say October U.S. pure EV sales plunged after up to $7,500 federal tax credit expired. Hyundai: Ioniq 5 and 9 U.S. sales down 80% and 71% month-over-month.  

 

Kimberly-Clark $48.7B Bid for Tylenol Parent Sends Stock Plunging  

 

Kimberly-Clark closed down 14.57% Monday after announcing ~$48.7 billion deal for Kenvue (Tylenol, Band-Aid parent). Kenvue up 12.32% on the news.  

 

Tesla October Europe Sales Hit New Low  

 

Tesla's Europe struggles continue. October new registrations (proxy for sales): down 89% Sweden, 86% Denmark, 50% Norway. But France up slightly for second straight month.  

 

Buffett Likely Trims Apple Again  

 

Berkshire Q3 filings over weekend: Apple stake value down $1.2 billion, but Apple stock up over 24% same period. Likely means Buffett sold more Apple shares.  

 

Buffett cut two-thirds of Apple position in 2024, trimmed again Q2 this year.  

Forex & Commodities  

International oil rose November 3.  

 

NYMEX WTI crude front-month settled up $0.07 to $61.05/barrel, +0.11%; Brent up $0.12 to $64.89/barrel, +0.19%. COMEX gold front-month up $17.50 or 0.44% to $4,014.0/oz.  

 

NY close, USD index up 0.15% to 99.87; most non-USD currencies down.  

Key Events  

U.S. Becomes First Country to Export 10M Tons LNG in One Month  

 

LSEG preliminary data Monday: U.S. October LNG exports hit record 10.1 million tons, up from revised 9.1 million September. Fourth straight monthly record for world's top LNG exporter.  

Cryptocurrency  

Bitcoin 24h down 3.28% to $106,681.

 

Ethereum (ETH-USD) down 6.64% to $3,628.35.

 

XRP (XRP-USD) down 7.12%, BNB (BNB-USD) down 7.97%, Solana (SOL-USD) down 11.30%.  

 

Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) down 8.80%, Cardano (ADA-USD) down 8.54%.  

Key Events  

Strategy: Bought 397 Bitcoin Oct 27–Nov 2  

 

Bitcoin holder Strategy filed 8-K with SEC Monday: Bought 397 BTC Oct 27–Nov 2 for ~$45.6 million, average $114,771 per coin.  

 

Co-founder and executive chair Michael Saylor: As of now, Strategy holds 641,205 BTC worth ~$69 billion; average cost $74,057 per coin, total cost (incl. fees) ~$47.5 billion. Position over 3% of Bitcoin's 21 million supply; paper gain ~$21.5 billion at current prices.