GoAI Market Morning Wrap - 6th Nov

Stock Market  

As Trump tariffs faced sharp questioning in the U.S. Supreme Court, combined with bargain-hunting funds entering high-valuation tech stocks like AMD, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed slightly higher on Wednesday.  

 

At the close, the S&P 500 rose 0.37% to 6,796.29 points; the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.65% to 23,499.8 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48% to 47,311 points.  

 

 

Based on the attitudes shown by U.S. Supreme Court justices, prediction market traders sharply reduced the probability of the U.S. government winning the case. At the same time, Ford Motor and General Motors, as bellwethers of the U.S. economy, both rose over 2% on Wednesday, and industrial equipment manufacturer Caterpillar rose nearly 4%.  

 

Sentiment also reversed in artificial intelligence concept stocks, with AMD opening low but flipping positive to rise, and Broadcom, Google, Oracle all closing higher on Wednesday.  

 

Benefiting from rumors of a big price increase in HBM4 chips, Micron Technology surged 8.93%, hitting a new historical high again. Storage concept stocks Seagate and SanDisk both rose over 10%.  

 

 

Of course, not all AI concept stocks rebounded on Wednesday. After releasing earnings, Super Micro Computer fell over 11%, and data center network supplier Arista Networks fell nearly 9%. In the current situation of severely insufficient market breadth, even AI concept stocks are starting to differentiate internally.  

 

The S&P 500 has hit 36 historical highs this year, the most recent on October 28. But the breadth of the rally is extremely narrow, with 6 stocks contributing about half of the index's gains since the beginning of 2025.  

Global Hotspots  

U.S. Supreme Court Hears Tariff Case Prediction Market Shows Trump Admin Win Rate Plunges  

 

As details of the U.S. Supreme Court hearing on the legality of Trump invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs spread widely, prediction market traders sharply lowered the probability that the court would support Trump tariffs.

 

On the Polymarket platform, the contract probability of the court supporting Trump tariffs plunged straight from 40% before the hearing to less than 30%, and even fell below 20% during the hearing.  

 

World Economic Forum Chair Warns: Global Markets Face Three "Bubble" Risks  

 

World Economic Forum (WEF) Chair Børge Brende warned on Wednesday that global financial markets need to be vigilant about three potential bubble risks, including the artificial intelligence (AI) field. This statement comes amid a sharp pullback in global tech stocks.

 

Brende said that day: "In the future, we may see the formation of multiple bubbles. First is the cryptocurrency bubble, second is the artificial intelligence bubble, third is the debt bubble." He pointed out that current global government debt levels have risen to the highest since 1945.  

 

Facing Inflation Worry Waves Fed's Miran Still Calls for "Continuing Rate Cut Path"  

 

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran latest said he believes the bank should continue rate cuts at the last meeting this year, as this "would still be a reasonable action." Local time Wednesday (November 5), Miran mentioned in an interview that earlier policy forecasts had shown three rate cuts in 2025, "which naturally leads to a question, that is, has the situation changed?  

Company News  

After-Hours Earnings Quick Look  

 

Arm up over 2% after hours, benefiting from increased interest in designing chips for AI data centers, company earnings and current quarter guidance fully beat expectations;  

 

Qualcomm down over 4% after hours, although earnings numbers overall better than expected, but company disclosed $5.7 billion impairment on last quarter profit due to U.S. tax system changes;  

 

S&P 500's largest gainer this year Robinhood down nearly 2% after releasing earnings. Company Q3 profit beat Wall Street expectations, but crypto revenue missed. Chief Financial Officer Jason Warnick to leave in Q1 2026;  

 

AI application bull stock Duolingo plunged over 17% after releasing earnings. Company expects Q4 booked revenue range $329.5 million to $335.5 million, below analyst estimate of $344.1 million;  

 

Food delivery platform DoorDash down over 14%, Q3 profit missed analyst expectations, and said it will continue to increase spending in the future.  

 

Gurman: Apple to Pay Google $1 Billion Annually for Custom AI Model  

 

The long-delayed "Apple Intelligence" finally sees key progress. According to well-known leaker Mark Gurman on Wednesday, Apple is pinning hopes for launching upgraded Siri and other AI features on Google's 1.2 trillion parameter AI model.

 

The two sides are currently finalizing an agreement under which Apple will pay $1 billion annually to customize a Gemini model until the company can develop its own sufficiently powerful AI model.  

 

Amazon Sues Perplexity Battle Over AI Agent Access Rights  

 

Amazon filed a lawsuit late Tuesday local time, escalating the legal dispute with Perplexity into full confrontation, with the e-commerce giant seeking to prohibit this AI search startup from accessing Amazon's website through its AI browser Comet.

 

In the complaint filed with the Northern District Court of California, Amazon accused Perplexity of committing computer fraud and violating its terms of service.  

 

Reports Say U.S. Government Has Doubts About Novo Nordisk Acquisition Offer  

 

Regarding Novo Nordisk and Pfizer competing for weight-loss drug developer Metsera, reports on Wednesday said the Federal Trade Commission sent letters to Novo Nordisk and Metsera, saying Novo Nordisk's bid "may violate" procedural legal provisions requiring prior merger review.

 

Affected by this, Metsera closed down 2.46% on Wednesday.  

Forex & Commodities  

International oil prices fell on November 05.

 

At the close that day, New York Mercantile Exchange WTI crude oil futures current month continuous contract settlement price down $0.96 to $59.6 per barrel, decline 1.59%; London Brent crude oil futures current month continuous contract down $0.92 to $63.52 per barrel, decline 1.43%.  

 

COMEX gold futures current month continuous contract settlement price up $32.40, gain 0.82%, to $3,992.9 per ounce.  

 

New York close, USD index down 0.05% to 100.16, most non-USD currencies up  

Key Events  

U.S. crude inventories increase sharply  

 

Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday shows that last week, due to rebounding imports, U.S. crude inventories increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined.

 

EIA said that for the week ending October 31, commercial crude inventories excluding strategic petroleum reserve increased 5.2 million barrels to 421.2 million barrels, about 4% below the five-year average for the same period this year.

 

The Wall Street Journal survey of analysts predicted a decrease of 100,000 barrels in output.  

Forex & Commodities  

Bitcoin 24h up 2.73% to $103,483.77.  

 

Ethereum (ETH-USD) up 4.91% to $3,401.22.  

 

XRP (XRP-USD) up 7.99%, BNB (BNB-USD) up 2.69%, and Solana (SOL-USD) up 5.01%.  

 

Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) up 3.46%, and Cardano (ADA-USD) up 5.14%.  

Key Events  

Bitcoin whale dumps $45 billion holdings to smash market, analyst: Downtrend may continue to next spring  

 

K33 research head Vetle Lunde said: "In the past month, over 319,000 bitcoins have been reactivated, mainly coins held for 6 to 12 months—this indicates massive profit-taking since mid-July. Some reactivations stem from internal transfers, but more reflect real selling behavior."  

 

Tiren said that if the October crash was caused by forced selling, this pullback may reflect a more worrying situation: fading market confidence. The imbalance between continued selling by long-term holders and insufficient new buyers is intensifying, not only affecting market sentiment but also starting to dominate market direction.  

 

Earlier this year, Tiren observed that "super whale" entities holding 1,000 to 10,000 bitcoins had begun massive selling, even as institutional investors tried to absorb this selling pressure. This also explains Bitcoin's sideways oscillation this summer.

 

But Tiren pointed out that since the October 10 crash, overall demand has shrunk sharply. "We broke some on-chain indicators—many investors are in unrealized losses and have to close positions."  

 

Overall, the accumulation scale of investors holding 100 to 1,000 bitcoins has dropped sharply. Tiren said, "Whales simply aren't buying."  

 

Looking ahead, Tiren warned that this selling may continue until next spring. In the 2021-2022 bear market, large holders sold over 1 million bitcoins in nearly a year, and Tiren believes a similar scale of selling may repeat. "If the current pace continues, this could last another six months."  

 

He did not predict a catastrophic crash but believes there is still room for further decline. "I'm not superstitious about market cycles, but I think the market may consolidate with oscillation next, or even decline slightly further. $85,000 is my maximum downside target."