APAC Market Wrap - Nov 7  

China Stock Market: At close, Shanghai Composite down 0.25%, Shenzhen Component down 0.36%, ChiNext down 0.51%.

 

Sectors: organic silicon, fluorochemical, phosphorus chemical, batteries led gains; AI models, software development led declines.  

 

Hong Kong Stock Market: This week Hong Kong's three major indices mixed. At Friday close, Hang Seng up 1.29% cumulative to 26,241.83 points; Tech Index down 1.20% cumulative to 5,837.36 points; State-owned Enterprises Index up 1.08% cumulative to 9,267.56 points.  

 

From today's market, gold and oil stocks strong; tech/internet and semiconductor stocks continue adjusting.  

 

Japan Stock Market: The Nikkei 225 dropped 359.4 points or 0.7% to open lower at 50,524.31.  

 

From industry sectors, services, shipping, pharmaceuticals up; non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, machinery multiple sectors down.  

 

Korea Stock Market: KOSPI down 1.81%. Sectors: utilities, cosmetics, food, department stores big gains. Aerospace, electrical equipment, software, display panels down.  

 

Australia Stock Market: S&P/ASX 200 down 0.66% to 8,769.700 points.

 

Sectors: home building, furniture, diversified media small gains; semiconductors, software, aerospace bigger drops.  

 

Singapore Stock Market: FTSE Singapore Straits Times Index up 0.01%.

 

Sectors: education, diversified media, telecom services up; personalized services, software, cyclical retail down.  

 

Malaysia Stock Market: FTSE Malaysia KLSE Index up 0.01%.

 

Sectors: healthcare, plantations, utilities up; construction, transport & logistics, consumer goods services small drops.  

Key events  

Rebut "AI bubble theory"! Japan's largest tech fund: AI stocks still have upside  

 

Japan's largest tech fund said recently artificial intelligence (AI) stocks not in bubble, still room to rise further.  

 

Nomura Asset Management's Japan Information Electronics stock fund CIO Yasuyuki Fukuda said AI market "just entering second act," "not yet in bubble stage."  

 

Recently, driven by AI boom, U.S. chip giant Nvidia market cap topped $5 trillion, first company to cross threshold.  

 

Japan Q3 economy may shrink for first time in six quarters? Survey: U.S. tariffs may be "culprit"  

 

Per survey released Friday (November 7), Japan economy in July-September Q3 may shrink for first time in six quarters, main reason perhaps impact from President Donald Trump tariff policies.  

 

Median forecast from 18 economists: Annualized Q3 GDP may shrink 2.5% YoY, vs Q2 +2.2% YoY growth. Without annualizing, Q3 contraction about 0.6%.  

 

Per schedule, Japan government to release Q3 GDP data November 17 local time 8:50 a.m.  

 

U.S. first trillion-dollar shopping season! Shopping enthusiasm high despite inflation curse  

 

Though U.S. consumers deep in inflation worries, NRF Thursday 2025 forecast shows U.S. November-December holiday shopping season spending expected top $1 trillion, above last year.  

 

Group says retailers last holiday season sales $976 billion, up 4.3% YoY. This year holiday season consumer total spending $1.01-1.02 trillion, up 3.7%-4.2% YoY.  

 

NRF world's largest retail association, members include department stores, online platforms, independent retailers, restaurants, over 3.8 million stores, covering over 52 million employees.  

Institutional views 

JPMorgan market intelligence team head Andrew Tyler and analysts say before 2026, any U.S. stock pullback buying opportunity, expect S&P 500 soon strongly break 7000, about 3% upside from current. JPMorgan bullish U.S. stocks three reasons.

 

First, despite shutdown data gaps, growth still strong. Second, corporate earnings strong.  

 

FactSet data: Of reported S&P 500 components as of October, 83% beat expectations, best since 2021. Third, macro headwinds fading. Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs to ease policy uncertainty. Multiple deals reached, policy visibility up. Government restart may release liquidity, lift risk assets, trigger short squeeze in recently hit sectors. Overall, despite AI valuation worries, with earnings momentum and macro resilience, bull pattern solid.  

 

Capital Economics: If Trump tariff policy rejected, fiscal issues top investor worry  

 

Earlier long-term U.S. Treasuries sold off shows if Trump tariff policy rejected, fiscal issues become top investor worry, fearing rising debt worsens deficits. Capital Economics Asia-Pacific market head Thomas Mathews notes Treasury yield curve long end most volatile, showing fiscal worries no less than Fed path concerns.

 

Tariff revenue loss reignites deficit problem. Wednesday market reaction milder than initial tariff launch earlier year, as market expects government alternative tariffs. This limits fiscal stimulus scale, unlikely fully offset revenue loss. Also, though tariffs limited direct inflation push, recent inflation swaps slight drop shows investors think canceling tariffs still some inflation suppression.  

 

State Street Global: Raise gold price base forecast to 3700-4100 dollars  

 

State Street Global Advisors raises gold price base forecast to 3700-4100 dollars (50% probability), bullish scenario to 4100-4500 dollars (35% probability). Also, bearish range 3300-3700 dollars (15% probability), upper 3700 dollars offers "buy the dip" chance, especially post-September Fed meeting, market FOMO funds further clearing reinforces this.