GoAI Market Morning Wrap - 11th Nov

Stock Market  

Eastern Time Monday, three major indices all closed higher, U.S. Senate took key step to end government shutdown, market risk appetite rebounds, heavyweight AI concepts Nvidia, Palantir led gains.  

 

U.S. longest-ever federal government shutdown likely ends this week. Late Sunday, compromise to restore federal funding passed first procedural vote in Senate, but final congressional approval timing still uncertain.  

 

On prediction market Polymarket, investors see 88% chance U.S. government shutdown ends this week.  

 

House Speaker Johnson Monday urged House members return to Washington soon to vote on Senate deal.  

 

Johnson claims expects House vote this week, but no specific date. Per insider, Johnson hopes Wednesday vote, but depends on Senate completing procedures first.  

 

Northlight Asset Management CIO Chris Zaccarelli: "This shutdown lasted far beyond market expectations, investors once worried flight cancellations, missing economic data would have broader economic impact."  

 

Baird investment strategy analyst Ross Mayfield: "This technical repair of last week's oversold, 'buy the dip' creed validated again in tech and AI tracks. AI theme faces no structural headwinds, on contrary, many earnings extremely strong."  

 

This record shutdown created "data vacuum," Fed and market forced to rely on private sector data for economic judgment, but signals inconsistent.  

 

Some Fed officials that day again expressed cautious stance on next monetary policy meeting decision, while Governor Stephen Milan reiterated view for substantial rate cuts.  

 

Meanwhile, Q3 earnings season nearing end. Per LSEG data, of 446 reported S&P 500 components, 83% beat market expectations.  

Global Hotspots  

Gaza ceasefire agreement shaky Second phase talks far off  

 

Local time November 10, Gaza ceasefire phase one officially one month. Israel government and Hamas keep accusing each other of violations, implementation bumpy, agreement fragility increasingly evident. Concerns lasting peace not truly arrived.

 

U.S. Treasury pauses Caesar Act sanctions on Syria  

 

U.S. Treasury pauses implementation of Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act (Caesar Act) sanctions on Syria, except certain Russia and Iran transactions.

 

After 2011 Syria civil war, U.S., EU imposed severe sanctions. 2019, U.S. launched Caesar Act to tighten Syria economic blockade. Earlier May 23 this year, U.S. Treasury statement issued 180-day mandatory Caesar Act sanctions exemption.  

 

"Shutdown" farce continues U.S. arms deliveries to Ukraine may be blocked  

 

U.S. government ongoing "shutdown" impacts worsening. Reports say shutdown also affects U.S. arms deliveries to Ukraine, may impact Ukrainian front-line weapon supplies. U.S. State Department source: Due to shutdown, State Department arms sales notification to Congress unit only 25% staff, large backlog including AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, HIMARS rocket systems to Europe, affected arms exports total over $5 billion.

 

Though source not explicitly mention Ukraine, U.S. arms to Ukraine usually transshipped via NATO members.  

Company News  

U.S. second-largest LNG exporter signs 20-year supply deal with Spain's Naturgy  

 

U.S. LNG exporter Venture Global local time Monday announced signed 20-year LNG supply deal with Spain's Naturgy Energy, starting 2030 Venture Global supply 1 million tons LNG annually to Naturgy. Affected, Venture Global stock once surged 13% early session, finally closed up 6.3%.

 

That morning, Venture Global also released Q3 earnings, revenue $3.33 billion, over 3x YoY. But Venture Global lowered full-year profit guidance from $6.4-6.8 billion to $6.35-6.5 billion, citing natural gas price volatility.  

 

Buffett farewell letter: Donated $1.3 billion in stock  

 

Monday Berkshire Hathaway website released Warren Buffett's latest donation decision and letter.

 

Warren E. Buffett converted 1,800 Class A shares to 2.7 million Class B shares to donate to four family charitable foundations: 1.5 million shares to Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, 400,000 each to Sherwood Foundation, Howard G. Buffett Foundation, NoVo Foundation. Donations completed today, value over $1.3 billion.  

 

Coinbase new platform aims to reshape token issuance rules  

 

U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase announced plans to launch new token sales platform, letting retail investors access token trading earlier. Monday Coinbase official blog released plan. Press release: To solve "how effectively reach real users with tokens," Coinbase launching end-to-end token sales platform.

 

Coinbase explains to set industry benchmark, provide token projects more sustainable, transparent token distribution and decentralization. Company says November 17-22 hold first token sales round for U.S. retail.  

 

Microsoft recruits influencers to sell AI products Copilot targets young consumers  

 

Microsoft working to boost chatbot Copilot downloads, recruiting top U.S. influencers to convey core message to young consumers: "Our AI assistant as cool as ChatGPT." Microsoft recently said Copilot has about 150 million monthly active users. By comparison, OpenAI ChatGPT 800 million weekly active, Google Gemini 650 million monthly.

 

With years software and cloud sales experience, Microsoft clear advantage in enterprise, but consumer market—especially under-30—hard to break through. Microsoft consumer CMO Yusuf Mehdi in interview: "In this space, we actually challenger brand, rising type."  

 

C3 AI explores sale and other options after founder resigns  

 

Sources say AI software provider C3.ai exploring potential sale and other options after founder Thomas Siebel resigned CEO for health reasons. C3 provides platforms for Shell, U.S. Air Force etc. to develop and operate large-scale AI apps, AI tools widely used in U.S. government, energy, manufacturing.

 

Due to worsening financials and strategy/leadership uncertainty, stock down over 54% YTD. September 3 earnings, withdrew full-year guidance. Salesforce veteran Stephen Ehikian succeeded Siebel as CEO September 1.  

Forex & Commodities  

COMEX gold futures closed up 2.83% to $4,123/oz, COMEX silver futures up 4.7% to $50.40/oz.  

 

WTI crude futures up 0.64% to $60.13/barrel. Brent crude futures up 0.68% to $64.06/barrel.  

 

New York close, USD index up 0.07% to 99.62, non-USD currencies mixed.  

Key Events  

Crude: Pause production increase next year Oil price bottom support strong  

 

OPEC+ production increase meeting decided continue small increase strategy December, but pause Q1 next year, adjust output anytime per market conditions, supply pressure eased impact, crude prices continue slight uptrend.

 

Analyst Info expects Saudi-led OPEC+ pause shows oil price stability determination, in increase to secure market share context, pause indeed boosts bull confidence. Short-term, crude market continue oscillating upward.  

Cryptocurrency  

Bitcoin 24h up 0.13% to $105,785.13.  

 

Ethereum down 0.78% to $3,572.83.  

 

XRP up 6.62%, BNB down 0.98%, Solana up 0.82%.  

 

Dogecoin up 0.83%, Cardano up 2.23%.  

Key Events  

Bitcoin price forecast: ETF funds back to net inflows, BTC holds $100,000 level  

 

Bitcoin up 1% past 24 hours, successfully holds above $100,000, bulls seem all-out defending this key psychological level.  

 

Past 30 days tough for Bitcoin. Token down about 18%, as investors see worsening macro conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed central bank may not cut December, contrary to early market expectations.  

 

This triggered selloff wave, since month start trader long positions forced liquidated over $3 billion.  

 

After 6 straight days outflows, Bitcoin-related ETFs finally net inflows again. This change may support bullish Bitcoin price forecast.