Bitcoin Falls Below $100,000: Bear Market Vibes Spreading?

Dragged by cooling Fed rate cut expectations, fresh risk-off sentiment, and brutal tech stock sell-off, Bitcoin plunged below the $100,000 mark on Thursday, worsening the slump that has wiped out over $450 billion in market cap since early October.  

 

Price data shows the world's largest cryptocurrency plunged as much as 4% overnight to below the $98,000 level. Technically, Bitcoin has fallen more than 20% from last month's all-time high above $125,000, entering classic bear market territory.  

 

Even forces once seen as reliable crypto supports—major investment funds, ETF allocators, and corporate Bitcoin treasuries—are pulling out, shaking the key pillars of this year's rally and pushing the market into a new fragile phase.

 

 

As shown below, Bitcoin's year-to-date gains have narrowed to under 7%, making what was supposed to be a record-breaking year for crypto risk turning into a "strong start, weak finish."  

 

 

10X Research analysts bluntly stated the crypto market has entered a confirmed bear market pattern. The firm cited shrinking ETF inflows, ongoing long-term holder selling, and sluggish retail participation as evidence.  

 

In fact, the firm's model sounded warnings as early as midOctober, and now shows market sentiment continuing to deteriorate. 10X predicts Bitcoin's next key support near $93,000.  

 

Wintermute OTC head Jake Ostrovskis: "Bitcoin is under dual pressure from spot selling and corporate hedging, traders almost completely avoiding altcoins. When crypto-specific narratives weaken, correlation with traditional assets rises—this is the current driver."  

 

This Bitcoin pullback coincides with heightened global market volatility. The brief U.S. stock rebound earlier this week triggered by the end of the government shutdown has faded. With key economic data delayed, traders are reassessing the rationale for Fed year-end cuts, adding fresh pressure on growth assets like crypto and tech.  

 

During this, crypto-related stocks are taking the hardest hits. MicroStrategy, long a retail proxy for Bitcoin exposure, has crashed in recent weeks. Its once-multiples-of-NAV premium—investors' willingness to pay above book value to "join the Bitcoin club"—has largely vanished, evaporating billions in investor capital.  

 

In derivatives, demand for Bitcoin downside protection is surging. Per Coinbase-owned Deribit, open interest in protective puts with strikes below $100,000 has spiked, with $90,000 and $95,000 contracts most active.  

 

As Bitcoin's momentum has visibly slowed in recent weeks, institutional interest also appears to be waning. The sharp early-October crypto pullback triggered nearly $19 billion in crypto leverage liquidations in a single day—an epic wipeout that flipped sentiment across digital assets.  

 

Over the past month, spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have reached about $2.8 billion. 10X Research CEO and former Millennium Management PM Markus Thielen notes if price upside stalls further, billions more could exit before the December Fed meeting.  

 

On how much further Bitcoin could fall, 10X is drawing on recent history to frame risks. The firm notes 2024 summer and early 2025 bear markets both caused 30%–40% drops. Currently, Bitcoin is down over 20% from its 2025 high with no sustainable rebound in sight.  

 

10X in client report: "Bear market vibes are spreading—Bitcoin and most crypto-linked assets are deep in bear territory."  

 

The firm cites moving average indicators historically proven as crypto cycle turning points—emphasizing Bitcoin remains below its long-term average, signaling fading momentum.