Global Highlights This Week: Markets Hold Breath for Nvidia Earnings—AI Trade Faces Big Test

This week, tech stocks could get even wilder.

 

Nvidia—the world's top-valued company and AI kingpin—drops its quarterly numbers, and every investor globally is glued to it. This'll be a huge tell on whether the AI trade still has legs.

 

Last Friday, the S&P 500 barely budged after a rollercoaster ride; selling pressure eased a bit. But worries over the U.S. economy, rates path, and fallout from the longest government shutdown ever have folks on edge.

 

The VIX fear gauge spiked to a one-month high early Friday. Tech's been under fire lately, and people are still nervous about how fragile the sector is—AI hype has pushed valuations way up.

 

Nvidia's report this week is one of the biggest catalysts left for 2025. The S&P's up about 14% this year, but AI bubble fears just won't quit.

 

Raymond James chief market strategist Matt Orton says: "Nvidia's the epicenter of AI infrastructure. Its Wednesday after-hours numbers won't just hit tech—they'll ripple to industrials, utilities, you name it. If growth or guidance misses the sky-high bar, the AI trade takes another beating."

 

Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers stuck with his buy rating on Nvidia Friday and bumped the target from 220 to 265. "Hyperscale capex keeps trending up, so we're lifting 2027 and 2028 estimates."

 

Since ChatGPT blew up in November 2022, Nvidia's stock has rocketed about 10x; it's up another 40%+ this year, first to crack $5 trillion market cap. It's the anchor for the S&P 500 (8% weight) and Nasdaq 100 (around 10%), so any wobble moves the whole market—and beyond.

 

Analysts on average see Q3 EPS up 53.8% year-over-year, revenue at $54.8 billion; 2027 revenue forecasts are already 15% higher since late May, around $285 billion.

 

S&P Global Visible Alpha research head Melissa Otto: "The market's priced in the rosiest scenario, so Nvidia's forward guidance is make-or-break."

 

Folks will also watch what Nvidia says on demand or industry spending. This earnings season, Microsoft, Amazon, and other hyperscalers showed capex for data centers and AI gear isn't slowing.

 

Rockefeller Global Family Office CIO Jimmy Chang: "With all these massive capex pledges, there shouldn't be any whiff of weak demand—the need right now is still red-hot."

 

D.A. Davidson co-CIO James Ragan: Wall Street's starting to grill Big Tech on whether the insane chip and data center spends will actually pay off. "We're hitting the point where people want real returns and cash flow, not just stories."

 

 

Besides Nvidia and a bunch of Chinese ADRs, this week brings earnings from Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and a pile of key economic data delayed by the shutdown—like September nonfarm payrolls out November 20. Those'll shape Fed expectations for the December meeting.

 

Lately, a bunch of Fed officials have pushed back on rate-cut bets. CME FedWatch shows December 25-bp cut odds down to under 50% from 67% last week.

 

Now eyes turn to Fed speakers this week for hints on policy amid high valuations and economic uncertainty.

Key events this week

Monday (Nov 17): Canada Oct CPI m/m, US Nov NY Fed manufacturing index  

 

Tuesday (Nov 18): US Oct import prices m/m, US Oct industrial production m/m, US Nov NAHB housing index, Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari fireside chat, RBA Nov meeting minutes, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed visits White House, meets President Trump  

 

Wednesday (Nov 19): API crude inventories to Nov 14, UK Oct CPI m/m, Eurozone Oct CPI y/y final, US Oct housing starts, EIA crude inventories to Nov 14, EIA Cushing crude to Nov 14  

 

Thursday (Nov 20): China Oct Swift RMB global payments share, China 1-yr LPR to Nov 20, Germany Oct PPI m/m, Switzerland Oct trade balance, US initial jobless claims to Nov 15, US Nov Philly Fed manufacturing, Eurozone Nov consumer confidence prelim, US Oct existing home sales, US Oct Conference Board leading index m/m, EIA natural gas to Nov 14, Fed minutes, NY Fed's Williams speaks, September nonfarm payrolls  

 

Friday (Nov 21): Japan Oct core CPI y/y, UK Nov GfK consumer confidence, UK Nov manufacturing PMI prelim, Canada Sep retail sales m/m, US Nov S&P Global manufacturing PMI prelim, US Nov Michigan sentiment final, US Nov 1-yr inflation expectations final, Chicago Fed's Goolsbee speaks, Philly Fed's Harker on outlook, ECB's Lagarde speaks, NY Fed's Williams speaks