GoAI Market Morning Wrap - 18th Nov

Stock Market

Eastern Time Monday, U.S. stocks fell across the board as investors dumped tech shares again, with the Dow leading the decline at about 1.2%.

 

 

Dow Jones Index fell 1.18% to 46,590.24 points; S&P 500 Index fell 0.92% to 6,672.41 points; Nasdaq Index fell 0.84% to 22,708.07 points.

 

Monday's action leaves the S&P 500 down over 2% for November so far, after six straight months of gains. The index is now more than 3% off its all-time high, while the tech-heavier Nasdaq is down over 5% from its record.

 

Wall Street's digging deeper into the fundamentals of the AI boom. Over the past few weeks, worries about overstretched tech valuations have dominated trading.

 

Nvidia, the AI bellwether, reports after the close on Wednesday—recently a key source of market pressure along with other AI names.

 

Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield: "On one hand, Nvidia needs to show demand's still strong, no signs of slowing. But unless they go further, the other question hangs: 'We know compute demand is robust, but what's the ROI for companies buying these chips?'"

 

Mayfield warns: "Any guidance or forecast that's even mildly tempered on chip demand will get a negative market reaction."

 

Google was one of Monday's few bright spots, opening up 6% to a record high but paring gains to just over 3% by the close as the broader market slid.

 

The surge stemmed from Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 stake in the stock—likely handled by Buffett's two stock managers rather than the man himself, but still a boost for investors, especially after Google's big run this year.

Global Hotspots

UK Unveils Asylum Overhaul to Tighten Refugee Rules  

 

The UK government released a white paper outlining sweeping asylum reforms, imposing stricter controls on applications, refugee recognition, family reunions, deportations, and economic support. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood pitched it as a key step to tighten immigration and asylum policy.

 

EU Assures Belgium on Ukraine Loan Backed by Frozen Russian Assets  

 

The European Commission sent a letter to member states guaranteeing Belgium won't bear sole responsibility if using frozen Russian assets for a Ukraine loan goes south.

 

Fed December 25-bp Cut Odds at 42.9%  

 

Per CME FedWatch: 42.9% chance of a December 25-basis-point cut, 57.1% for no change. Cumulative odds to January 2026: 48.2% for one 25-bp cut, 35.6% no change, 16.1% for 50 bps.

 

White House Econ Advisor: AI May Curb Hiring Short-Term, But It's Temporary  

 

Monday, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said AI could boost worker productivity sharply, slowing hiring. In an interview: "The jobs market's sending mixed signals." He added upbeat notes on output: "Very, very positive signals from the output market."

 

Gundlach Warns U.S. Stocks Dangerously Speculative, Urges 20% Cash Buffer  

 

Wall Street veteran Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO and CIO, says many assets are wildly overvalued and recommends holding ~20% cash in portfolios to brace for a big pullback. He called the current U.S. equity market one of the unhealthiest he's seen in his career: "Extremely speculative, and speculative markets always climb to absurd heights—every time."

Company News

Amazon Issues $15 Billion in Bonds  

 

As tech firms race to debt-finance AI infrastructure via mega bond deals, e-commerce giant Amazon joined the fray Mondaywith a $15 billion issuance—its first U.S. dollar bonds in three years. Sources say the size beat initial estimates by $3 billion; proceeds for acquisitions, capex, buybacks, etc.

 

The deal drew $80 billion in demand at peak. Amazon priced six tranches, with the 40-year portion tightening to +85 bps over Treasuries from +115 bps initial.

 

Novo Nordisk Slashes U.S. Prices on Obesity Drugs  

 

Monday, Novo Nordisk announced cash-paying patients can buy Wegovy (0.25 mg) and Ozempic (0.5 mg) for $349/month via its NovoCare platform—down 30% from $499. This matches Eli Lilly's Zepbound low-dose pricing and undercuts its high-dose. Through March 31, 2026, U.S. patients get the first two months at $199/dose.

 

Google Launches WeatherNext 2 Forecasting Model  

 

Google DeepMind and Google Research unveiled WeatherNext 2, now live on Earth Engine and BigQuery. An early access program for custom inference hits Google Cloud's Vertex AI soon. The tech upgrades forecasts in Search, Gemini, Pixel Weather, and Google Maps Platform's Weather API—with Maps integration in coming weeks.

 

J&J to Acquire Halda Therapeutics for $3.05 Billion  

 

J&J announced Nov. 17 a definitive deal to buy clinical-stage biotech Halda Therapeutics for $3.05 billion cash—expected to close in coming months. Halda's RIPTACTM platform targets oral therapies for solid tumors like prostate, breast, and lung cancers.

Forex & Commodities

NYMEX December light crude oil futures fell 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $59.91 per barrel. January Brent crude futures on the ICE fell 19 cents, or 0.3%, to $64.20 per barrel.

 

COMEX gold futures down 1.20% to $4,045.10 per ounce;COMEX silver futures down 1.25% to $50.05 per ounce.

 

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.29% and settled at 99.588.

Key Events

Black Sea Port Novorossiysk Back Online, Easing Crude Supply Fears  

 

WTI crude held steady around $59.35/barrel in Asian trading Mondayas Novorossiysk—the key Black Sea hub—resumed ops after a Ukrainian strike. Sellers jumped in quick on the relief.

 

Traders are glued to the API's weekly crude inventory report, due late Tuesday.

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin -2.55% in 24h to 91,957.54.

 

Ethereum (ETH-USD) -2.63% to $3,019.06.

 

XRP (XRP-USD) -2.64%, BNB (BNB-USD) -2.35%, Solana (SOL-USD) -5.00%.

 

Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) -4.55%, Cardano (ADA-USD) -4.48%.

Key Events

Risk and Safe-Haven Assets Tank Together: Bitcoin and Gold Flash Liquidity Warning  

 

Researchers say Bitcoin's sharp pullback—erasing YTD gains—stems from tightening dollar liquidity. Fed policy bets shifting, cut hopes cooling, higher funding costs hitting volatile assets hard; institutions trimming leverage, amplifying sells.

 

Trump's pro-crypto narrative fading, global regs tightening—shattering the "crypto as absolute safe haven" myth. Markets see Bitcoin can't dual-wield speculation and safety; policy perks dimming.

 

A weird twist in this risk-asset rout: safe-haven gold's falling too. Risk plays (U.S. stocks, crypto) and havens (gold) dropping in sync signals deep liquidity crunch—funds tightening system-wide.