APAC Market Wrap - Nov 18
China Stock Market: At close, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component dropped 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index declined 1.16%. AI applications and software development led gains, while batteries, coal, and steel lagged.
Hong Kong Stock Market: Hong Kong’s three major indices closed lower. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.72% to 25,930.03 points, the Tech Index dropped 1.93% to 5,645.73 points, and the H-share Index declined 1.65% to 9,174.84 points.
Non-ferrous metals, autos, coal, lithium batteries, and consumer electronics faced pressure, with some semiconductors bucking the trend.
Japan Stock Market: The Nikkei 225 fell 3.22% to 48,702.98.
Sectors broadly declined, with non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment, and machinery edging lower.
Korea Stock Market: The KOSPI Index dropped 3.32%. Hotels, health management, and finance rose, while diversified consumer services, publishing, panels, and aerospace fell.
Australia Stock Market: The S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.94% to 8,469.100. Alternative energy, apparel, steel, and semiconductors gained, while aerospace, biotechnology, and medical services weakened.
Singapore Stock Market: The Straits Times Index (STI) fell 0.86% to 4,504.67. Diversified media, packaging/containers, and utilities rose, while personalized services, forestry products, and tourism declined.
Malaysia Stock Market: The FTSE Malaysia KLSE Index fell 0.82% to 1,614.06. Real estate investment and plantations gained, while closed-end funds, tech, and communications/media saw mild drops.
Key Events
Russia resumes exports, oil prices fall as supply glut looms
Global oil prices dipped on November 18 as Russia’s main export ports restarted loading after a brief halt, easing supply disruption fears, while “historic surplus” expectations weighed further.
Brent crude settled at $63.80/barrel, down 0.62% from Tuesday; WTI hovered near $59.49/barrel. Russia’s Novorossiysk port, handling ~2.2 million barrels daily, resumed Sunday after a two-day Ukraine drone/missile strike pause.
Japan’s long-term bond sell-off worsens, market frets over fiscal hit from massive stimulus
Japan’s longer-term bonds fell further Tuesday as investors worried Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s imminent large-scale stimulus will damage public finances. The 40-year JGB yield jumped 8 bps to 3.68%, a high since issuance in 2007; 20- and 30-year yields rose at least 4 bps, with 30-year near records.
Korea’s household debt hits record ~2,000 trillion KRW in Q3
Korea’s central bank data Tuesday showed household debt at a record 1,968.3 trillion KRW by end-September, up 14.9 trillion KRW from three months prior, though growth slowed due to tighter lending rules—the highest since tracking began in 2002.
Korean listed firms’ Q1-Q3 net profit up 25.8% YoY
The Korea Exchange said Tuesday that 639 KOSPI-listed companies’ combined net profit for January-September reached 152.3 trillion KRW (~$103.9 billion), up 25.8% YoY or 31.2 trillion KRW, driven mainly by top chip giants.
Institutional Views
Goldman Sachs: Central banks may have bought heavily in November, sticks to $4,900/oz by end-2026
Goldman Sachs said central banks likely loaded up on gold in November, part of a years-long diversification trend against geopolitical/financial risks. It reiterated a $4,900/oz forecast for end-2026, with further upside if private investors keep diversifying. Gold is up 55% YTD, fueled by economic/geopolitical worries, ETF inflows, and Fed cut bets.
Goldman estimates September central bank buying at 64 tons, up from August’s 21 tons.
Goldman Sachs: Cuts Brent, WTI 2026 averages to $56/bbl and $52/bbl
Goldman Sachs expects a 2 million bpd surplus in 2026 (ex-Russia) due to strong global supply, pressuring prices lower mid-year.
Brent and WTI averages fall to $56/bbl and $52/bbl (from $63/bbl and $60/bbl). Prices rebound to long-term targets of $80/bbl Brent and $76/bbl WTI by end-2028.
UBS: Brent to $62/bbl by year-end, $67/bbl by end-2026
UBS sees Brent fluctuating $60–70/bbl, targeting $62/bbl by year-end and $67/bbl by end-2026.
Despite rising floating storage, onshore inventories haven’t built, supporting prices. Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries and sanctions will eventually hit exports and output.
UBS: Chinese stocks set for another strong year in 2026
UBS’s 2026 outlook predicts another good year for Chinese stocks, driven by innovation and other positives.
MSCI China target of 100 implies 14% upside from current levels. Earnings growth of 10% in 2026 from anti-dumping measures and lower D&A. Favors internet, hardware tech, and brokerages; removes high-dividend stocks as yields fall. With global growth improving, adds some “going global” plays.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management: 2026 favors diversified global equities, blending fundamentals and quant
Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s 2026 outlook sees widening stock market dispersion, favoring global equity diversification and fundamental-quant blends. Fixed income emphasizes duration and strategic curve positioning for complex macro signals. Securitized, high-yield, and emerging market credit offer opportunities.
In private markets, new deals and exits are favorable, with wider PE manager dispersion. Private credit defaults historically below syndicated loans, with yields beating public markets. Rigorous underwriting is key, and infrastructure sees new chances from AI and energy transition.