Is the Bitcoin Sell-Off Over? Standard Chartered Analysts Expect a Year-End Rebound

 

Bitcoin kicked off the week on a weak note, dipping below $90,000 during Monday's Asian session—a move some saw as signaling the start of a bear market. But Standard Chartered analysts are pushing back with a different take.

 

Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's head of digital asset research, said the recent pullback looks like it's run its course. While this drop came faster and deeper than before, it lines up with the third major sell-off wave in the current cycle.

 

He added that several market gauges have reset to extreme levels—like the price-to-book multiple for digital asset firm Strategy (its market cap versus the value of its Bitcoin holdings), which has fallen to 1.0. That's a sign Bitcoin may have hit bottom.

 

Kendrick stressed this points to the selling wave being done, with his base case calling for a rebound before year-end. He also doubled down on his view that this could be Bitcoin's last trip below $100,000.

The Big Picture Remains Intact

Bitcoin broke below $100,000 last Friday and hit as low as $89,500 this week. It's now trading around $92,000, having erased nearly all its gains for the year so far.

 

Standard Chartered had previously figured that a drop below $90,000 would put more than half of public companies holding Bitcoin in the red on their positions. Those firms collectively own 4% of circulating Bitcoin and 3.1% of Ethereum.

 

Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard noted that crypto market depth has fallen about 30% since the record liquidations on October 10, leaving investors hypersensitive to even moderate selling.

 

But he added that while options data leaves room for Bitcoin to test the mid-$80,000s, holding here or bouncing seems more likely. In such thin liquidity, it takes less cash to move the market either way—and leverage just amps up the swings.

 

Willem Schroé, CEO of Bitcoin Layer-2 provider Botanix Labs, echoed that while Bitcoin's recent plunge was rough, it served a purpose: flushing out leveraged positions and setting the stage for the next leg up.

 

He pointed out that dipping below $90,000 briefly doesn't change the game—every cycle sees 20-30% pullbacks to clear leverage, and historically, those lay the groundwork for the following bull run.