APAC Market Wrap - Nov 19

China Stock Market: At the close: Shanghai Composite +0.18%, ChiNext +0.25%. Leading sectors: precious metals, defense, aquaculture. Lagging: Hainan concept, natural gas, cinemas.

 

Hong Kong Stock Market: The three major indices continued their consolidation. At the close: Hang Seng Index -0.38% to 25,830.65; Tech Index -0.69% to 5,606.90; State-owned Enterprises Index -0.26% to 9,151.04.  

 

Internet/tech and semiconductors were weak; lithium batteries, gold and oil were among the few pockets that rose against the trend.

 

Japan Stock Market: The Nikkei 225 fell 0.34% to end at 48,537.70. Sectors: modest gains in oil & coal, retail, real estate and construction; small declines in machinery and fisheries.

 

Korea Stock Market: KOSPI fell 0.61%. Up: non-ferrous metals, cosmetics, tobacco. Down: electric utilities, healthcare, publishing, broadcasting.

 

Australia Stock Market: S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.25% to 8,447.90. Up: agriculture, medical diagnostics, steel, apparel. Down: aerospace, farming, hardware.

 

Singapore Stock Market: FTSE STI rose 0.01% to 4,502.22. Up: personalized services, furniture, apparel, oil. Down: utilities, auto parts, transportation, chemicals.

 

Malaysia Stock Market: FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI rose 0.61% to 1,623.89. Up: construction, plantations, financial services. Mild declines in energy, telecom & media, tech.

Key Events

U.S. Sanctions Hit This Friday – Russian Crude Crashes Below $40!  

 

U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil producers take effect this Friday, hammering Russian crude prices.  

 

Data shows Urals from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk plunged to $36.61 per barrel last Thursday before a slight rebound – the lowest since March 2023, when the EU import ban first crushed Russian crude prices.

 

Takaichi Spooks Japanese Bond Market? 10-Year JGB Yield Hits Highest Since Global Financial Crisis!  

 

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield jumped further to a 17-year high as investors bet the Takaichi administration will roll out fiscal spending far bigger than expected, fueling the ongoing “Takaichi trade” of selling JGBs.  

 

Quotes showed the benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose 2 bps intraday Wednesday to 1.765% – the highest level since June 2008 during the global financial crisis.

 

Malaysia’s National Utility Loses Over $1 Billion to Crypto Mining Power Theft  

 

Malaysia’s Energy Ministry says state-owned utility Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) has lost more than $1 billion from 2020 to August this year due to illegal electricity use by crypto miners.  

 

In a written parliamentary reply dated Tuesday, the Ministry of Energy and Water Transformation said TNB identified 13,827 locations illegally tapping power for crypto mining during the period.  

 

The ministry noted that using stolen electricity for crypto mining (especially Bitcoin) has caused economic losses of 4.6 billion ringgit (about $1.11 billion) and added that TNB is working with authorities to curb power theft.

Institution Views

Goldman Sachs: Central Banks Likely Loaded Up on Gold in November, Still See $4,900 by End-2026  

 

Goldman says central banks probably bought heavily in November, continuing the multi-year trend of diversifying reserves against geopolitical and financial risks. Reaffirms $4,900/oz by end-2026; could go higher if private investors keep rotating in.

 

Gold is already up 55% YTD on macro/geopolitical worries, ETF inflows and more Fed cuts priced in. September central-bank buying estimated at 64 tonnes vs 21 tonnes in August.

 

Goldman Cuts 2026 Brent/WTI Average to $56/$52  

 

Due to strong non-Russia global supply, 2026 will see a 2 mb/d surplus, dragging prices lower through mid-year. New 2026 forecasts: Brent $56/bbl, WTI $52/bbl (previously $63/$60).

 

Expects prices to recover to long-term targets of Brent $80 and WTI $76 by end-2028.

 

TD Securities: Fed Policy Normalization to Be Key Global Rates Driver Next Year  

 

TD rates strategists write that heading into 2026, Fed policy normalization will be the main driver for global rates. Markets remain “stubbornly” anchored at higher long-term Fed rate expectations. However, as the Fed continues its easing cycle, those long-term federal funds expectations will eventually come down.

 

Given the still “very strong” correlation between global rates and U.S. rates, lower U.S. yields will help cap rises in long-term borrowing costs elsewhere.