GoAI Market Morning Wrap - 20th Nov

Stock Market  

Eastern Time Wednesday, after four consecutive down days, US stocks rebounded, with all three major indices closing higher and Nasdaq leading the gains, up 0.6%.  

 

(Intraday charts of the three major indices, source: TradingView)  

 

At the close: Dow Jones +0.10% to 46,138.77; S&P 500 +0.38% to 6,642.16; Nasdaq +0.59% to 22,564.23.  

 

In the previous session, both the Dow and S&P 500 suffered four straight declines, with the S&P 500 posting its longest losing streak since August, while Nasdaq recorded its fifth decline in the past six trading days.  

 

Since entering November, the upward momentum in US stocks has paused, mainly for two reasons: first, investors are worried about overvaluation in tech stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI); second, the 44-day US federal government shutdown has suspended the release of multiple economic data points, causing Fed policymakers to be cautious about further rate cuts.  

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stated it will not release the October jobs report separately and will incorporate October data into the November non-farm payroll report to be released in December. The BLS said the November jobs report will be released on December 16—a date after the Fed’s December rate meeting.  

 

Google was one of the standout performers on Wednesday, closing up 3%, having risen as much as 6.9% intraday and hitting an all-time high. Google released its Gemini 3 model on Tuesday, which received unanimous praise for performance and boosted investor confidence in the company’s competitiveness in AI.  

 

Nvidia once again reported better-than-expected quarterly results after the close on Wednesday, with the stock jumping over 6% in after-hours trading.

Global Hotspots  

US and Russia Reportedly Reach Major Breakthrough on Russia-Ukraine Peace Plan in Closed-Door Talks – Russia Denies New Progress  

 

The US government is close to a “major breakthrough” with Russia on a framework agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, expected to be finalized by the end of the month at the latest or even “as early as this week.”

 

Sources say the potential deal was negotiated directly between the White House and Moscow and may be presented to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy as a fait accompli with “almost no consultation with Ukraine or European allies.”

 

Fed October Minutes: Policymakers Sharply Divided on December Rate Cut  

 

Eastern Time Wednesday (Nov 19), the Federal Reserve released minutes from the October 28–29 FOMC monetary policy meeting. The minutes show policymakers are significantly divided on whether to cut rates again in December.  

 

The October minutes state: “A couple of participants judged that, if the economy evolved broadly as they anticipated in coming meetings, a further reduction in the target range could be appropriate in December. But many participants indicated that, under their economic outlook, maintaining the target range through the remainder of the year would be more appropriate.”

 

Fed December 25 bps Cut Probability Drops to 30%  

 

According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in December is 32.7% (yesterday 48.9%), probability of holding rates unchanged is 67.3%. By January cumulative 25 bps cut probability 49.9%, hold unchanged 33.8%, cumulative 50 bps cut 16.3%.

 

Germany Releases First National Space Security Strategy  

 

The German government released its first national space security strategy on the 19th, explicitly designating space security as one of its “core political tasks.”

 

The Defense Ministry issued a statement saying the strategy covers three areas of action: identifying space hazards and threats, promoting international cooperation and maintaining order in space, and building deterrence and strengthening defense capabilities.

Company News  

Nvidia Q3 Revenue and Q4 Guidance Both Beat Market Expectations  

 

After the close Wednesday, Nvidia reported Q3 revenue of $57.01 billion, up 62% YoY vs est $55.19 billion; Q4 revenue guidance ~$65 billion vs est $62 billion.  

 

Nvidia Q3 data center revenue $51.2 billion, +66% YoY vs est $49.34 billion. Q3 adj EPS $1.30. Q3 R&D spending $4.71 billion, +39% YoY vs est $4.66 billion.

 

Brookfield Teams Up with Nvidia and Kuwait Investment Authority – Plans to Raise $10 Billion for AI Infrastructure Fund  

 

Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. is partnering with Nvidia and the Kuwait Investment Authority to raise $10 billion in commitments for a global AI infrastructure initiative.  

 

Brookfield said the Brookfield AI Infrastructure Fund (BAIIF), launched Wednesday, will be the core vehicle.  

 

Per a Wednesday announcement, the fund has secured $5 billion in commitments from institutions and industry partners including Brookfield, Nvidia and KIA. The fund aims to deploy up to $100 billion into AI assets via co-investment and leverage, covering energy, land, data centers and other parts of the infrastructure chain.  

 

Last month, Brookfield agreed to invest up to $5 billion to deploy Bloom Energy fuel cells in new data centers—its first deal under the new strategy.

 

Social Media Ban Imminent – Meta Starts Notifying Australian Teen Accounts Will Be Shut Down  

 

Reports say Meta will block access to Instagram, Facebook and Threads for Australian users under 16 by December 10 to comply with upcoming Australian law restricting teen social media use.  

 

Meta said it has begun notifying users it identifies as aged 13–15 via in-app messages, email and SMS that their accounts will be disabled. Starting December 4, Meta will begin deactivating those accounts and blocking new registrations under 16.

 

Oklo Signs Power Conversion System Contract with Siemens Energy  

 

On November 19, nuclear fission startup Oklo announced a contract with Siemens Energy to design and deliver the power conversion system for its Aurora power plant.

 

The contract authorizes Siemens Energy to begin engineering design, manufacturing and accelerate procurement of long-lead components. Siemens Energy will supply an SST-600 condensing steam turbine and SGen-100A industrial generator.

 

Nokia Streamlines Business, Bets on AI Infrastructure Boom  

 

Nokia is betting on the AI boom by streamlining operations to focus on network infrastructure connecting AI data centers, expecting double-digit operating profit growth in coming years. The company held a capital markets day Wednesday.  

 

Nokia announced it expects annual operating profit of €2.7–3.2 billion ($3.1 billion) by 2028. Nokia shares fell as much as 6.3% in Helsinki Wednesday, marking a fifth straight decline.  

 

Last month Nvidia agreed to invest $1 billion in Nokia, sending shares sharply higher, but gains were later pared amid broader AI bubble worries.

Forex & Commodities  

Global oil prices fell on the 19th. At settlement: NYMEX December light crude futures down $1.30 to $59.44 per barrel, -2.14%; London January Brent crude futures down $1.38 to $63.51 per barrel, -2.13%.  

 

COMEX gold futures +0.29% to $4,078.3/oz; COMEX silver futures +1.08% to $51.065/oz.  

 

The dollar index against six major currencies rose 0.68%, closing at 100.228 in late New York trading.

Key Events  

Crude Oil: Rising US refined product inventories and easing geopolitical risks push prices lower  

 

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy arrived in Turkey to “restart talks,” surprising investors who had largely given up on de-escalation. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to sanctions on Russia’s energy sector.  

 

Reports that the US and Russia are studying new plans to end the Ukraine conflict also eased supply concerns, though the Kremlin said no new proposals to end the conflict have been discussed between Russia and the US.  

 

These developments may help mitigate the impact of US sanctions on two major Russian oil producers. The US Treasury said the restrictions have already weakened Russia’s funding capacity.

Cryptocurrency  

Bitcoin 24h +0.14% to 92,373.54.  

 

Ethereum (ETH-USD) -1.86% to $3,037.77.  

 

XRP (XRP-USD) -3.46%, BNB (BNB-USD) -2.86%, Solana (SOL-USD) -1.21%.  

 

Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) -3.10%, Cardano (ADA-USD) -1.29%.

Key Events  

Trillion-Dollar Market Cap Vanishes! Bitcoin Plunge Triggers Crypto Bloodbath – Eyes on $77k “Life-or-Death” Line  

 

The 2025 crypto market shakeout entered a new phase Wednesday—Bitcoin hit a seven-month low, wiping out over $1 trillion in total digital asset market cap.  

 

During New York hours, the world’s largest cryptocurrency briefly dipped to $88,522. The sell-off hit everyone from dip-buying retail to digital-asset reserve companies seeing their share premiums evaporate. But Nvidia’s strong revenue outlook eased fears the global AI spending boom is fading, and tokens rebounded from lows into the close.  

 

The next psychological levels traders are watching are around $85,000 and $80,000, with the April 2025 tariff-driven low of $77,424 especially critical. Crypto total market cap peaked at ~$4.3 trillion on October 6 and now hovers around $3.2 trillion. Note that much of this reflects paper losses, not actual capital outflows.