GoAI Market Morning Wrap - 21st Nov
Stock Market
U.S. stocks staged a dramatic roller-coaster ride on Thursday Eastern Time.
Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings initially sent sentiment soaring, with the Nasdaq jumping more than 2% at one stage. However, as valuation worries resurfaced and rate-cut hopes took another hit, all three major indices closed firmly lower, the Nasdaq down more than 2%.
(Intraday charts of the three major indices, source: TradingView)
Dow Jones Industrial Average −0.84% to 45,752.26; S&P 500 −1.56% to 6,538.76; Nasdaq Composite −2.15% to 22,078.05.
Nvidia climbed as much as 5% intraday but finished down 3%. CEO Jensen Huang stressed that demand for Blackwell chips is “off the charts” and flatly denied any AI bubble, yet caution still dominated.
Thursday’s pre-market release showed U.S. September nonfarm payrolls rose 119,000 — far above the consensus estimate of 52,000 — with the unemployment rate at 4.4% (expected 4.3%, previous 4.3%). The report, originally due in early October, had been delayed by the 1.5-month federal government shutdown.
The strong jobs print further eroded rate-cut expectations. The latest Fed funds futures now show less than a 40% chance of a December cut — a clear negative for investors positioned for lower rates.
Jeff Kilburg, analyst at KKM Financial: “Nvidia’s hot streak is being doused by collapsing odds of a December rate cut. The market had been banking on it, but that narrative has flipped.”
Retail giant Walmart was one of the few standout performers, jumping more than 6% after posting better-than-expected third-quarter sales and revenue, helped in part by e-commerce growth.
As a classic defensive name in the economic cycle, Walmart’s strength also highlights ongoing capital rotation from high-valuation tech stocks into defensive sectors.
Thomas Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager at Globalt Investments: “The market is taking time to digest its positioning — how to balance growth versus value stocks, and risk assets versus safe havens.”
Global Hotspots
Ukrainian President Meets U.S. Army Secretary to Discuss Peace Plan
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy wrote on social media that during his meeting Thursday with U.S. Army Secretary Driscoll, the two sides discussed pathways to genuine peace, phased work arrangements and dialogue mechanisms, as well as new diplomatic momentum.
Ukrainian and U.S. teams will jointly draw up concrete action plans and are ready for constructive, good-faith, and efficient cooperation.
U.S. Government Reorganizes Department of Energy, Prioritizing Fossil Fuels and Nuclear
The U.S. Department of Energy announced a reorganization that puts oil and nuclear resources front and center, replacing departments previously focused on renewables and energy efficiency. The DOE released a new organizational chart with a brief statement saying the changes align with President Trump’s energy dominance agenda.
The new chart adds several offices, including the Office of Hydrocarbons and Geothermal Energy and the Office of Fusion.
The Clean Energy Demonstrations Office set up under the Biden administration has been eliminated. The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy has also vanished from the chart. The Loan Programs Office, which funded innovative energy projects, has been renamed the Energy Dominance Financing Office.
President Trump Modifies Tariff Scope on Brazilian Goods
The White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order amending tariffs on goods imported from Brazil. The 40% ad valorem tariff on certain items remains unchanged, but given progress in negotiations, additional ad valorem tariffs have been lifted on specific Brazilian agricultural products entering the U.S. after midnight Eastern Time on November 13.
The White House said the move balances national security concerns with advancing trade relations with Brazil.
Iranian Foreign Minister: Cairo agreement with IAEA formally terminated
In response to a resolution on Iran’s nuclear issue pushed by the UK, France, Germany, and the U.S. at the IAEA Board of Governors, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said these countries’ actions ignored Iran’s engagement and goodwill, damaged the IAEA’s credibility and independence, and undermined the interaction and cooperation process between the agency and Iran.
Company News
Google launches Next-generation Image Generation and Editing Model NANO BANANA PRO
Google has released NANO BANANA PRO (Gemini 3 Pro Image), an all-new cutting-edge image generation and editing model. Google says its new Nano Banana Pro image model can generate sharper images and supports more accurate, readable text in multiple languages.
SoftBank to Invest up to $3 billion in OpenAI Data-center Factory
Two people familiar with the plans said SoftBank plans to invest up to $3 billion to convert a former electric-vehicle factory in Lordstown, Ohio, into a facility that will produce equipment for OpenAI’s upcoming data centers. The Japanese conglomerate is one of OpenAI’s largest investors.
Waymo Expands Robotaxi Service to Minneapolis, Tampa, and New Orleans
On November 20, Alphabet’s self-driving unit Waymo announced it is extending its autonomous ride-hailing service to Minneapolis, Tampa, and New Orleans.
Verizon Announces Layoffs of more than 13,000 Employees
On November 20, Verizon said it is streamlining operations by cutting more than 13,000 jobs across the organization and reducing outsourced and other external labor costs, adding that “every part of the company will experience some level of change.”
Forex & Commodities
Global oil prices edged lower on the 20th.
NYMEX December light crude futures fell 30 cents to $59.14 per barrel, down 0.5%; January Brent crude futures dropped 13 cents to $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2%.
COMEX gold futures −0.15% to $4,076.7/oz; COMEX silver futures −0.98% to $50.355/oz. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.07% to 100.159 by the close of forex trading.
Key Events
Russian oil sanctions deadline looms; Indian refiners scramble to book Middle East tankers
With U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil set to take effect this Friday, tanker booking data shows Indian refiners are rushing to switch to Middle Eastern crude supplies.
According to the latest reports Thursday, shipbrokers say more than a dozen tankers have been chartered so far this week to ship crude from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq via the Arabian Sea to India — a huge jump from only four bookings in the same period last month.
The charters include VLCCs (very large crude carriers) as well as smaller Suezmax vessels for late-November to December loadings. Brokers also report Indian importers are still hunting for more ships.
The scramble is pushing freight rates higher. Daily hire rates for a VLCC on the Middle East-to-Asia route now exceed $120,000 — roughly 3–4 times the average from the first half of this year.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin −4.89% over 24h to $87,128.29.
Ethereum (ETH-USD) −5.94% to $2,846.48.
XRP (XRP-USD) −4.46%, BNB (BNB-USD) −3.27%, and Solana (SOL-USD) −1.96%.
Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) −2.84%, and Cardano (ADA-USD) −6.22%.
Key Events
CryptoQuant Warns: Bitcoin bull market demand wave may have already peaked
Bitcoin briefly fell below $90,000 again, putting the crypto market’s four-year cycle back in the spotlight. CryptoQuant reports that the four-year cycle’s supply shock is now negligible; the current bull cycle is driven by a demand growth wave, and that wave has very likely already crested.
The report says that by traditional four-year bull-bear standards, the current cycle should end this year. Historically, those cycles were mainly due to halving-driven supply shocks, but such shocks are now insignificant relative to Bitcoin’s total supply.
CryptoQuant notes Bitcoin has corrected 28% and retreated to a key support zone ($90,000–$92,000). Even in a bear market, the price could still rebound 40–50% over the coming months, but after breaking below the 365-day moving average, that level ($102,600) will act as major resistance on any rebound.