Global Highlights This Week: Focus on Russia-Ukraine "Peace Plan" Developments
U.S. stocks are enduring a gloomy November, with this week marking the month’s final trading week and Thursday closed for Thanksgiving.
Given the persistent weakness in recent weeks, a monthly decline is now all but inevitable, though a rebound this week could add some confidence amid the market turbulence.
In recent times, investors’ concerns over lofty tech valuations have lingered, and even Nvidia’s strong earnings report as an AI leader failed to fully dispel the doubts. On top of that, dashed Fed rate-cut expectations have added pressure.
Although the S&P 500 is still up 11% year-to-date, it has pulled back more than 5% from its late-October all-time high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has now fallen for three straight weeks.
A flood of backlog data releases in the coming weeks could heighten market volatility further, as investors parse them for clues on economic health and whether the Fed will cut rates at its December meeting.
This week’s key U.S. economic data includes September retail sales and producer price index (PPI) on Tuesday, plus September durable goods orders on Wednesday. These were originally slated for October but delayed by the recent federal government shutdown.
With the U.S. Labor Department announcing it won’t release a full October nonfarm payrolls report, and the November report pushed to December 16 (six days after the Fed meeting), this Wednesday’s weekly initial jobless claims could take on added importance.
The Fed’s Beige Book (summary of current economic conditions) will also be released this Wednesday.
Elsewhere overseas, the UK Autumn Budget on Wednesday will be a major focal point. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce tax hikes to repair public finances, but specifics remain unclear after reports that the government may scrap plans to raise income tax.
In the Asia-Pacific, rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Korea will draw attention.
With Nvidia reporting last week, the U.S. Q3 earnings season is now in its final stretch.
(This week earnings highlights)
Beyond economic data, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has hit a pivotal moment recently. The U.S. has handed Ukraine a peace plan, but both Ukraine and the EU have voiced dissatisfaction.
However, President Trump has stated that November 27 (this Thursday) is the final deadline for Ukraine to accept the U.S.-backed peace proposal.
Overview of Key Overseas Economic Events This Week
Monday (November 24): U.S. November Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, Germany November Ifo Business Climate Index
Tuesday (November 25): U.S. September Retail Sales, Germany Q3 Unadjusted GDP YoY Final, UK November CBI Retail Sales Balance, U.S. September FHFA House Price Index MoM, U.S. September S&P/CS 20-City Unadjusted House Price Index YoY
Wednesday (November 26): U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (week ending November 22), U.S. November Chicago PMI, UK Chancellor Reeves unveils budget plan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision
Thursday (November 27): Fed releases Beige Book, Germany December GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Eurozone November Economic Sentiment Indicator, ECB releases October monetary policy meeting minutes, Bank of Korea rate decision
Friday (November 28): Japan October Unemployment Rate, France/Germany November CPI, France Q3 GDP