GoAI Market Morning Wrap - 26th Nov

Stock Market  

On Tuesday (November 25), the three major U.S. indices strengthened throughout the session and all closed higher.  

 

At the close, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.67% to 23,025.59 after falling more than 1.2% early in the session;  

 

the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.43% to 47,112.45; the S&P 500 rose 0.91% to 6,765.88.  

 

Traders are currently assessing the Fed rate-cut outlook and developments in artificial intelligence. CME FedWatch shows an 82.7% probability of a 25 bps cut at the December meeting.  

 

On Friday, New York Fed President and FOMC Vice Chair John Williams sent dovish signals, saying there is still room for rate cuts “in the near term.”  

 

LNW Chief Investment Officer Ron Albahary said, “Before Friday, the odds of a Fed cut were 40%; now they’re at 80%. I can’t predict the future, but the current trend points to a cut, which would be positive for a Santa Claus rally.”  

 

During the session, reports emerged that White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has become a leading candidate to be the next Fed Chair. Investors believe Hassett is more likely to push the central bank toward the low-rate policy favored by Trump.  

 

Google shares rose over 3% intraday on reports that Meta may reach an agreement with Google to use Google’s tensor processing units (TPUs) in its data centers. The news weighed on chip stocks, with Nvidia falling as much as over 7%.  

 

Nvidia unusually responded on social media: “Compared with ASICs designed for specific AI frameworks or functions, Nvidia delivers higher performance, greater versatility, and better substitutability.”  

 

LNW’s Albahary commented: “What concerns me more is the ripple effect this could have on broader players like Microsoft and Amazon, and whether it signals a potential shift in the AI chip industry.”

Global Hotspots  

Trump: Has directed U.S. officials to negotiate peace plan with Russia and Ukraine  

 

President Trump posted on Truth Social that his team has made tremendous progress over the past week in ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. With further engagement from both sides, the initial 28-point peace plan drafted by the U.S. has been refined, with only a few remaining differences.

 

To finalize the plan, Trump said he has instructed Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to travel to Moscow for talks with Russian President Putin, while U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll will meet with Ukrainian counterparts to discuss the peace plan.

 

U.S. October budget deficit $284.4 billion  

 

U.S. October budget deficit $284.4 billion, October revenue $404.4 billion, October spending $688.7 billion; year-ago deficit was $257.5 billion.

 

In Fed Chair selection, White House NEC Director Hassett seen as frontrunner  

 

Reports say that with only weeks left in the Fed Chair selection process, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is viewed by Trump advisers and allies as the leading candidate. However, sources note that Trump is known for surprising personnel and policy decisions, so no nomination is final until announced.

 

The Fed Chair and governor picks are historically the most direct way a president influences the central bank.

 

In his first term, Trump nominated current Chair Jerome Powell but later deeply regretted it when Powell did not cut rates as quickly as desired. Hassett is seen as highly aligned with Trump’s economic views, including the need for lower rates. In a November 20 interview, he said that if he were Fed Chair, “I would cut rates right now” because “the data say we should.”

 

U.S. September retail sales post modest gain, losing momentum after months of strength  

 

The Commerce Department released delayed September retail sales data on Tuesday. On an unadjusted basis, September retail sales rose 0.2%, below August’s 0.6% gain. Ex-auto and gas, sales rose just 0.1%. Eight of 13 categories posted gains, led by gas stations, health & personal care stores, and miscellaneous retailers.

 

Motor vehicle sales fell for the first time in four months. Electronics, clothing, and sporting goods also declined. Consumer momentum weakened at the end of Q3. While overall spending is supported by high-income consumers benefiting from strong equity markets, lower-income consumers are showing signs of strain.

 

Rising prices and a softening labor market have made many shoppers more cautious and pushed consumer confidence near historic lows.

 

U.S. consumer confidence posts largest drop since April as labor and economic outlook worries intensify  

 

Due to growing consumer concerns over the labor market and overall economic outlook, November U.S. consumer confidence recorded its biggest decline in seven months. The Conference Board’s index fell 6.8 points to 88.7, well below the economist consensus of 93.3.

 

UN formally launches selection process for next Secretary-General  

 

UN General Assembly President Belberk and rotating Security Council President Sierra Leone jointly issued a letter formally launching the selection and appointment process for the next UN Secretary-General. The process will follow principles of transparency, inclusivity, standardization, and timeliness.

 

The letter emphasized that the Secretary-General position requires the highest standards of efficiency, competence, and integrity, as well as strong leadership, management, diplomatic communication, and multilingual skills.

 

New AI model can precisely pinpoint disease-causing mutations in human proteins  

 

Scientists from Harvard Medical School and the Barcelona Institute of Genomic Regulation published research in Nature Genetics on the 24th showing they have developed an AI model called popEVE that can accurately identify mutations in human proteins most likely to cause disease — a breakthrough that could revolutionize genetic disease diagnosis.

Company News  

Google TPUs steal the spotlight – Nvidia urgently responds: We still lead the industry by a full generation  

 

Nvidia posted on X: “We’re thrilled for Google’s success — they’ve made huge progress in AI, and we’ll continue supplying them.” “Nvidia leads the industry by an entire generation — the only platform capable of running all AI models across all compute scenarios.”

 

Nvidia added: “Compared with ASICs designed for specific AI frameworks or functions, Nvidia delivers higher performance, greater versatility, and better substitutability.”

 

Apple poised to overtake Samsung and reclaim global top smartphone maker crown  

 

According to Counterpoint Research, thanks to the successful launch of the new iPhone series and a wave of consumer upgrades, Apple is set to reclaim the title of world’s largest smartphone maker for the first time in over a decade. Researchers say the new models drove more upgrades, with double-digit YoY sales growth in both the U.S. and China.

 

Counterpoint data shows this will push Apple past long-time rival Samsung this year. 2025 iPhone shipments are expected to grow 10%, while Samsung’s are forecast at 4.6%. The overall smartphone market is expected to expand 3.3% in 2025, with Apple taking 19.4% share — its first time at #1 since 2011.

 

HP plans to cut 4,000–6,000 jobs by end of FY2028  

 

HP Q4 net revenue $14.64 billion (exp $14.53 billion); Q4 adj EPS $0.93 (exp $0.92); company forecasts FY2026 adj EPS $2.90–3.20 (exp $3.32). HP plans to cut 4,000–6,000 jobs by the end of FY2028.

 

Dell raises full-year revenue outlook  

 

Dell Q3 revenue $27.01 billion (exp $27.126 billion); company now forecasts FY revenue $111.2–112.2 billion, previously $105–109 billion.

 

Alibaba earnings call: Does not rule out additional investment beyond already-committed RMB 380 billion over three years  

 

Alibaba said it will “actively” invest in enhancing AI capabilities and does not rule out additional investment beyond the already-committed RMB 380 billion over three years. Alibaba also noted that the previously mentioned RMB 380 billion may turn out to be relatively small given customer demand.

Forex & Commodities  

International oil prices fell on November 25. At the close, NYMEX WTI crude front-month contract fell $0.73 to $58.11 per barrel, down 1.24%.  

 

COMEX gold front-month contract rose $32.10, or 0.78%, to $4,126.3 per ounce.  

 

At New York close, ICE dollar index fell 0.45% to 99.695.

Key Events  

Oil supply-demand balance keeps tilting! JPMorgan warns: Oil prices could be cut in half in two years  

 

On Monday Eastern Time, JPMorgan analysts released a report forecasting Brent crude to average $57–58 per barrel in 2026 and 2027.  

 

They also warned that unless production cuts are implemented, oil prices could fall to around $30 by the end of 2027.

Cryptocurrency  

Bitcoin 24h -0.74% to $87,498.82.  

 

Ethereum (ETH-USD) +0.30% to $2,955.11.  

 

XRP (XRP-USD) -2.45%, BNB (BNB-USD) -0.02%, and Solana (SOL-USD) +0.47%.  

 

Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) +0.72%, and Cardano (ADA-USD) -0.99%.

Key Events  

Eric Trump tours American Bitcoin Texas mining facility: 35,000 servers mining ~2% of global daily output  

 

Eric Trump, co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer of American Bitcoin Corp. (NASDAQ: ABTC), on Monday gave an online tour of the company’s Texas Bitcoin mining facility, highlighting ~35,000 liquid-cooled servers and stating the site mines roughly 2% of global daily Bitcoin supply.  

 

In a video posted on X, Trump emphasized the facility uses “American energy” to mine cryptocurrency “on American soil,” countering what he called misconceptions that Bitcoin is “intangible.” The younger son of President Donald Trump described the facility as “living proof” of Bitcoin’s physical infrastructure and tangible backing.  

 

He said in the video: “This is just a small preview of our Texas facility — it uses American energy to mine Bitcoin on American soil. We mine roughly 2% of global Bitcoin supply every day. We guard it every single day.”