GoAI Market Morning Wrap - 28th Nov
Stock Market
November 27 is Thanksgiving holiday in the United States – U.S. stocks closed for the day.
November 28 is the day after Thanksgiving – U.S. stocks will close 3 hours early.
Thanksgiving is a public holiday shared by the United States and Canada, though not on the same day. The original purpose was to give thanks for a bountiful harvest or good fortune. In the U.S., since 1941, Thanksgiving has been celebrated on the fourth Thursday of November every year.
On this day, no matter how busy Americans are, they try to reunite with family. Canada’s Thanksgiving began in 1879 and falls on the second Monday of October, coinciding with the U.S. Columbus Day.
The Friday after Thanksgiving is known as “Black Friday.” The early 3-hour close on that day has become a small tradition. This day is generally regarded as marking the official start of the year-end shopping season and serves as a barometer for retail performance during the crucial Christmas sales period – one of the busiest and most important days of the year for merchants.
Global Hotspots
Institutions: USD may weaken in 2026 due to Fed rate cuts
Pictet Asset Management strategist Luca Paolini said that as economic growth slows, paving the way for further Fed cuts, the dollar will face a new round of weakness next year. He noted that dollar interest-rate differentials are narrowing significantly.
“We expect the U.S. economy to soften a bit, which will gradually ease inflation pressure.” In contrast, growth elsewhere – especially Europe and Japan – may improve.” In addition, the dollar remains overvalued. Pictet forecasts the dollar index to fall from the current ~99.55 to 95 by the end of 2026.
Morgan Stanley recommends staying long local-currency EM bonds, expects ~8% return by mid-2026
Morgan Stanley strategists say that as the U.S. economy slows and the Fed likely cuts further, EM rallies should continue. The bank advises clients to maintain long positions in local-currency emerging-market debt, projecting ~8% returns by mid-2026.
For USD-denominated EM bonds, it forecasts “high single-digit” gains over the next 12 months. James Lord, head of EM FX strategy at Morgan Stanley: “Fed easing will pressure the dollar lower, helping push U.S. Treasury yields down and creating a favorable environment for emerging markets.”
Probability of 25 bps Fed cut in December rises to 86.9%
According to CME FedWatch: Probability of a 25 bps cut in December is 86.9%, probability of no change is 13.1%. By January, cumulative probability of 25 bps cut is 67.3%, no change 9.6%, and cumulative 50 bps cut 23.1%.
Europe’s space program gets record $25.5 billion budget for next three years
Contributions: Germany ~€5B, France ~€3.6B, Italy ~€3.5B. ESA says 20% of the budget will go to space transportation, 17% to science projects.
Trump pressure fails – UK insists on digital services tax on U.S. tech giants
Despite pressure from President Trump, the UK government still plans to impose the digital services tax on U.S. tech companies, expected to bring billions of pounds to the Treasury. The UK released a review report on Wednesday stating the tax will remain in place until a global tax agreement is reached.
Japan plans to issue over ¥11 trillion in new JGBs
The Japanese government plans to finance its latest massive stimulus package through large-scale new bond issuance. NHK reported today (Nov 27) reported that the government will issue approximately ¥11.7 trillion in additional JGBs to cover the spending gap from last week’s large-scale economic measures. Goldman Sachs analysts say the economic boost from this stimulus may be “far below expectations.”
Bank of America warns that this year’s stimulus is much larger than last year’s, posing a huge risk of widening Japan’s fiscal deficit again in 2026. The IMF also predicts Japan’s fiscal deficit will worsen further in 2026.
A Purdue University research team achieved precise control of light beams at the single-photon level and developed a “photonic transistor” that works at single-photon intensity – a key step toward unlocking the full potential of photonics and paving the way for photonic chips and quantum computing. Results published in the latest Nature Nanotechnology.
Forex & Commodities
LME copper closed down $36 at $10,940/t. LME aluminium down $32 at $2,828/t.
LME zinc down $42 at $3,015/t. LME lead up $7 at $1,986/t.
LME nickel up $10 at $14,833/t. LME tin up $50 at $38,041/t.
LME cobalt unchanged at $48,570/t. Dollar index fell 0.03% to 99.563 at New York close.
Key Events
Sources: OPEC+ may reach agreement on mechanism to assess members’ maximum capacity
OPEC+ is expected to keep Q1 2026 oil production policy unchanged at Sunday’s meeting.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 24h +1.15% to $91,277.69.
Ethereum +0.12% to $3,021.74.
XRP -0.89%, BNB +0.65%, Solana -1.15%.
Dogecoin -1.11%, Cardano -0.36%.
Key Events
Macro backdrop turning supportive – Cathie Wood sticks to long-term Bitcoin targets
Analysts expect cryptocurrencies to rebound sharply if the Fed confirms easing. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could surge to $250K under full QE. However, near-term confidence remains low. Nexo’s Iliya Kalchev says Bitcoin must reclaim $92K to “open the door to broader recovery,” with macro conditions decisive.
For now, surging liquidity, loose monetary policy, and returning risk appetite suggest both traditional and digital assets may be approaching a key year-end turning point.