Prediction Markets Become the New Hotspot – Robinhood Secures Core License, Shares Skyrocket

On Wednesday (November 26), U.S. broker Robinhood closed up 10.93%, outperforming nearly 500 stocks in the S&P 500.  

 

 

This week alone, Robinhood has surged 19.48%, recovering nearly half of its November decline. Year-to-date, the stock is up a staggering 244.07%, ranking second in the entire S&P 500 — trailing only the red-hot Western Digital (+251.14%).

 

Earlier this week, Robinhood announced on its official website that it has reached an agreement with Susquehanna International Group to jointly acquire 90% of the shares in crypto derivatives exchange MIAXdx.  

 

MIAXdx was originally known as LedgerX, a subsidiary of the once-famous crypto platform FTX. When FTX collapsed, LedgerX was one of the few subsidiaries that remained solvent.  

 

 

It was later acquired by Miami International Holdings (MIAX) for $50 million. Currently, MIAXdx holds Designated Contract Market (DCM), Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO), and Swap Execution Facility (SEF) licenses.  

 

The new deal will give Robinhood and Susquehanna direct control over the infrastructure needed for prediction market contracts, while MIAX retains a 10% stake in the new entity to participate in the prediction market space.  

 

Robinhood executive JB Mackenzie said: “We’ve seen strong customer demand for prediction markets. Our investment in infrastructure will enable us to deliver a better experience and more innovative products to our customers.”  

 

Previously, Robinhood’s presence in prediction markets was mainly through the Kalshi platform, which offers contracts on everything from sports to politics. This latest move signals Robinhood is aggressively expanding in the sector.  

 

In a Wednesday report, analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald noted that although the scale of Kalshi contracts offered by Robinhood remains relatively small, they have already had a massive impact on its business.  

 

“Prediction markets have become the fastest-growing product line by revenue in Robinhood’s history. Within one year of launch, more than 1 million customers have traded over 9 billion contracts.”  

 

According to public data compiled by Dune Analytics last month, in the week ending October 19, nominal trading volume on U.S. prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket first surpassed $2 billion — exceeding even the frenzy seen during last year’s election.  

 

Analysts believe this trading boom clearly shows that “prediction exchanges” — which allow investors to bet on real-world outcomes — are rapidly heating up. Even traditional finance giants like CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are seeking entry into this emerging market.  

 

Earlier this month, Wall Street investment bank Bernstein called prediction markets a viable asset class, pointing out that what once seemed like a novelty is evolving into a fundamental part of the mainstream financial system — with real capital, real users, and growing regulatory recognition.