GoAI Market Wrap - 3rd Dec

Stock Market  

Overnight and early this morning, as the cryptocurrency market stabilized and warmed up, Bitcoin and tech stocks rose together, lifting trading sentiment. All three major indices closed modestly higher, partially recovering yesterday’s losses.  

 

At the close, the S&P 500 rose 0.25% to 6,829.37 points; the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.59% to 23,413.67 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.39% to 47,474.46 points.  

 

(S&P 500 daily chart, source: TradingView)  

 

The market is still waiting for a catalyst to trigger the “Santa Claus rally.” Among S&P 500 components, more stocks fell than rose — 286 closed lower, 216 closed higher, and one was unchanged.  

 

Meanwhile, President Trump publicly stated he plans to announce his nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair early in 2026 and dropped a hint. Given that the market has widely expected White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to get the nod, this came as no surprise.  

 

On one of the final big questions for U.S. stocks in 2025 — whether the S&P 500 can reach 7,000 by year-end — analysts say more consolidation may be needed first.  

 

Fundstrat chief technical strategist Mark Newton said that before expecting U.S. stocks to immediately hit new all-time highs, market breadth still needs to broaden further. “I’m positive on December, but I still think the market is more likely to see a choppy, back-and-forth pattern over the next few weeks before pushing to fresh highs again.”  

Global Hotspots  

Russian President Putin meets U.S. envoys  

 

On the evening of December 2 local time, Russian President Putin met at the Kremlin with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov and presidential special representative for foreign investment and economic cooperation Kirill Dmitriev attended the talks.

 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov previously said Putin’s meeting with Witkoff in Moscow is an important step toward peacefully resolving the Ukraine crisis — Russia hopes U.S. mediation will succeed and is ready to work toward peace.  

 

U.S. SEC preparing to ease listing rules  

 

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said Tuesday that regulators plan to make it easier for small companies to go public by reducing mandatory disclosures and scaling requirements based on company size.  

 

American Economic Association imposes lifetime ban on Larry Summers  

 

The American Economic Association announced Tuesday a lifetime ban on former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers due to his communications and close ties with Jeffrey Epstein. Summers had previously resigned voluntarily from the organization amid the scandal.  

 

In a statement, the AEA said: “Given the publicly reported content of the communications, the Association condemns Mr. Summers’ conduct as fundamentally inconsistent with our standards of professional integrity and a violation of the trust the economics profession places in mentors.”  

 

Rate-hike signal triggers “stocks & bonds double kill” in Japan – unwind of carry trades may return  

 

After BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted on December 1 at a possible rate hike later this month, Japanese government bond yields surged, followed by rising sovereign yields from the U.S. to Europe and the rest of Asia, triggering a global bond sell-off.

 

The BOJ’s last hike was in January this year, lifting rates from 0.25% to 0.5% — the highest borrowing cost in Japan in 17 years. Ueda unexpectedly said this week that the BOJ will “weigh the pros and cons” of raising the policy rate at its meeting ending December 19.  

 

UN report: Financial volatility could jeopardize global trade, putting the world economy “on the brink of crisis”  

 

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released its Trade and Development Report 2025 on December 2, forecasting global growth to slow to 2.6% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024.

 

The report highlights the impact of finance on trade, noting that financial market volatility now affects global trade nearly as much as real economic activity and shapes global development prospects.  

Corporate News  

Nvidia CFO: OpenAI deal not yet included in revenue guidance  

 

Nvidia CFO Colette Kress said Tuesday that the “$100 billion investment in OpenAI” announced at the end of September remains at the letter-of-intent stage.

 

The agreement involves deploying “at least 10 GW” of Nvidia systems for OpenAI — equivalent to $400–500 billion in revenue for Nvidia. Naturally, this revenue is not yet reflected in the company’s guidance.  

 

Amazon launches new AI chip, next-gen chip to integrate with Nvidia ecosystem  

 

Cloud computing leader Amazon AWS officially launched its first 3nm AI chip, Trainium3. Compared to the previous generation, Trainium3 offers up to 4.4× higher compute performance, 4× better energy efficiency, and nearly 4× higher memory bandwidth, targeting cost-performance leadership in AI compute.  

 

Amazon also announced that Trainium4 is in development, with the biggest highlight being support for Nvidia’s NVLink Fusion high-speed interconnect, allowing Trainium4 to work seamlessly within the Nvidia ecosystem.  

 

Dell family donates to set up investment accounts for 25 million American children  

 

Dell Technologies founder Michael Dell and his wife Susan announced a $6.25 billion donation to help most American children open investment accounts.

 

The $6.25 billion will be handed to the U.S. Treasury to create accounts for 25 million children “aged 10 and under who do not qualify for government funds,” with each new account seeded with $250 (~RMB 1,767).  

Forex & Commodities  

International oil prices fell on December 2.

 

At the close, the front-month WTI crude oil futures contract on the NYMEX dropped $0.73 to $58.59 per barrel, down 1.23%. COMEX gold futures front-month contract fell $36.10, or 0.84%, to $4,238.7 per ounce.

 

On December 3, the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.06% and closed at 99.357 in late New York trading.  

Key Events  

OECD: Developed economies nearing end of easing room – Fed may have only two cuts left  

 

According to the latest OECD forecast, developed economies will end the current easing cycle by the end of 2026. This suggests that despite potentially slower growth, most major central banks have very limited room left for policy loosening.

 

The OECD expects the Fed to cut rates only twice more by end-2026 before holding the federal funds rate at 3.25%–3.50% throughout 2027 to balance tariff-induced inflation pressures against a weakening labor market.  

Cryptocurrency  

Bitcoin 24h +5.66% to $91,223.63.  

 

Ethereum +7.14% to $2,991.08.  

 

XRP +6.63%, BNB +6.04%, Solana +8.62%.  

 

Dogecoin +7.61%, Cardano +11.75%.  

Key Events  

Any chance left for Bitcoin this year? Analysts: Strong rally unlikely, bottom-forming more realistic  

 

Bitcoin plunged on the first day of December, deepening risk-off sentiment. As year-end approaches, analysts are taking a more cautious stance on the asset.  

 

As the crypto bellwether, Bitcoin is already down 7% in December and has corrected ~31% from its all-time high on October 6. This reflects investor concerns dominating the market over the past month.  

 

Industry insiders say the crypto market remains fragile — negative news weighs heavily, while positive developments fail to lift the gloomy mood or price action.  

 

Derek Lim, head of research at crypto trading firm Caladan, noted: “Bitcoin is likely to stay range-bound with increased volatility, trading between $83,000 and $95,000.”