Global Highlights for This Week: Fed Rate Decision in Focus – Oracle and Broadcom Report Earnings
As a key moment in the closing phase of 2025, the market’s reaction to this week’s latest Fed decision will largely determine trading sentiment for the final few weeks of the year.
Given persistent headwinds in the U.S. labor market recently, investors have broadly reached consensus that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points this week.
Attention has now turned to how many dissent votes Powell will receive, the Fed officials’ updated interest-rate “dot plot” for future paths, Powell’s tone, and whether he will remain on the Fed Board next year – all key focuses of the press conference.
(Market is highly confident the Fed will cut rates this week, source: CME FedWatch)
Statistically, among this year’s 12 voting members, at least 5 have expressed opposition or skepticism toward further easing. Milan, representing the “White House voice,” may also cast a dissent vote calling for larger cuts. Since 2019, the Fed has not seen three or more dissents at a meeting; since 1990, this has only happened 9 times.
Fed Governor Waller, who dissented earlier this year, said last month that an increasingly divided Fed will shake market confidence.
He stated: “Once decisions become a 7-to-5 stalemate, any single member changing their vote could rewrite the policy trajectory. This kind of one-vote-decides-everything situation itself undermines market confidence.”
Besides the Fed, the Bank of Japan’s moves also warrant investor attention and caution. Although the BOJ meeting is still two weeks away, Governor Kazuo Ueda will attend a public event this Tuesday – any confirmation of hike expectations could drag on global markets.
This week is still not peak earnings season, but Oracle and Broadcom reports will undoubtedly impact the “AI narrative,” especially the former’s capital spending and financing issues.
Other events: The White House will host an AI supply-chain summit on December 12 with allies including South Korea, UAE, and Australia, expected to sign agreements in energy, critical minerals, advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and transport & logistics.
Also this Monday, Golden Globe nominations will be announced amid “Netflix’s blockbuster acquisition of Warner Bros.” Google will hold its “Android XR Show” the same day – expected to be a 30-minute keynote showcasing AI glasses, headsets, and ecosystem progress, especially Gemini AI integration.
Additionally, shareholders of veteran U.S. game developer Electronic Arts will vote this Wednesday on a $55 billion takeover offer from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund – considered the largest leveraged buyout in history.
Finally, per tradition, the Nasdaq 100 index may announce its annual rebalance after this Friday’s close.
International macro: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy plans to visit London this Monday to discuss the Ukraine peace agreement with leaders from the UK, France, and Germany. Latest weekend news shows Ukraine and Russia still have significant differences on key issues.
Key Economic Events This Week
Monday (Dec 8): Eurozone Dec Sentix Investor Confidence, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy visits London (tentative)
Tuesday (Dec 9): U.S. Oct JOLTs Job Openings, U.S. Nov NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, RBA rate decision
Wednesday (Dec 10): China Nov CPI, U.S. 10-year Treasury auction, Bank of Canada rate decision
Thursday (Dec 11): Fed FOMC releases rate decision and economic projections summary & Powell press conference, OPEC monthly crude market report
Friday (Dec 12): Nasdaq 100 announces annual constituent adjustments