GoAI Market Wrap - 9th Dec
Stock Market
Overnight, the three major U.S. indices all closed lower as investors await the Fed’s final monetary policy meeting of the year later this week.
After last week’s data showed modest U.S. consumer spending growth at the end of Q3, expectations for a December rate cut have solidified further. However, with the Fed facing its most “divided” meeting in years, the market is anxiously looking for clues on the future path.
BMO Private Wealth CIO Carol Schleif said: “Until the Fed meeting concludes, the market will struggle to find clear direction. We just came off a very strong earnings season, and the next one is four weeks away. The only thing the market has to latch onto right now is the Fed.”
In recent weeks, traders have become increasingly confident the Fed will cut rates again, having already delivered 25 bps cuts in September and October. The latest CME FedWatch Tool shows an approximately 89% probability of a 25 bps cut this week.
Meanwhile, rising U.S. Treasury yields also pressured stocks. After a strong earthquake off Japan’s coast, the U.S. 10-year yield rose quickly.
Integrated Partners CIO Stephen Kolano said: “The market’s performance over the past week or two has essentially fully priced in a 25 bps cut. If the highly unlikely happens and they don’t cut, it’s over — I think the market would drop 2% to 3%.”
Beyond the expected cut this week, Kolano expects Chair Powell to reiterate a “data-dependent” stance in his subsequent remarks, especially after last week’s November ADP data showed further labor-market softening. He added that with Powell’s term ending in May 2026, he may remain “somewhat neutral” on market expectations for next year’s rate path.
Leading candidate to succeed Powell, White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett, said it would be irresponsible for the Fed to lay out a rate path for the next six months at the current stage. He stressed Monday that policy judgments should be based on economic data.
Global Hotspots
Leaders of UK, France, Germany, and Ukraine hold talks
On December 8 local time, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met for over two hours at 10 Downing Street with UK Prime Minister Starmer, French President Macron, and German Chancellor Merz. The four leaders discussed the latest draft peace plan to end the Ukraine crisis.
U.S. to provide $12 billion aid to farmers affected by tariff policy
President Trump announced Monday afternoon at the White House that the federal government will provide $12 billion in aid to U.S. farmers to counter the “backlash” of U.S. tariff policy on American agriculture. The Trump administration’s wide-ranging tariff policy earlier this year disrupted global trade, blocking U.S. export markets.
Prices for U.S. soybeans, corn, and other agricultural products have languished, while fertilizer and farm machinery costs have risen, making many farms unprofitable and leaving farmers in difficulty.
Multiple airlines cancel flights to/from Venezuela after U.S. warning
The FAA previously warned several airlines that, due to “deteriorating security conditions,” any civilian aircraft overflying Venezuelan airspace would “face dangerous situations.” Multiple international airlines have suspended flights to/from Venezuela. Meanwhile, Venezuelan airlines are gradually expanding international route operations.
Oppenheimer strategist Stoltzfus expects U.S. stocks to rise another 18% by end-2026
Oppenheimer Asset Management strategist John Stoltzfus forecasts the S&P 500 to reach around 8,100 by end-2026, driven by strong economic growth and monetary easing. His bullish outlook for this year has proven quite accurate, with the S&P 500 now only about 3% from his 2025 year-end target.
“We remain positive on stocks and view them as the most favored asset class,” Stoltzfus wrote in a report. Loose monetary and fiscal policy plus robust corporate earnings are “core factors supporting our 2026 target price,” he added. U.S. stocks are on track for a third straight year of double-digit gains as investors believe the Fed will continue cutting rates even as growth remains resilient.
Corporate News
IBM to acquire Confluent for $9.3 billion to expand AI services
IBM will acquire data-streaming platform Confluent Inc. for approximately $9.3 billion — one of its largest acquisitions to date and a major bet on enterprise software needed for real-time AI task execution. IBM will pay $31 per share. Including debt, enterprise value is $11 billion.
The deal is expected to close by mid-2026. If the transaction fails, IBM will pay Confluent a $453.6 million termination fee.
Google’s first Gemini-powered AI glasses to launch in 2026
Google announced Monday it is developing two categories of AI glasses to compete with Meta next year: one with display and audio-focused. The first co-developed AI glasses will launch sometime in 2026. Early hardware partners include Samsung Electronics, Warby Parker, and Gentle Monster, though final designs have not been shown.
Google will also partner with Chinese AR firm Xreal on standalone glasses codenamed “Project Aura” running Android XR, working without a phone but requiring an external battery.
NextEra partners with Google and Exxon to build U.S. data-center power supply
NextEra Energy said Monday it will collaborate with Google Cloud to build new large-scale data-center campuses across the U.S., along with supporting power generation facilities. NextEra is also working with ExxonMobil to develop natural-gas power plants and provide carbon capture & storage solutions for large customers.
The companies are already developing three initial data-center campuses and plan to identify more sites. In October, the two announced plans to restart a NextEra nuclear reactor in Iowa. Exxon and NextEra are jointly developing a potential 1.2 GW power plant, targeting large data centers.
Apple chip chief denies rumors: “No plans to leave in the short term”
Apple chip chief Johny Srouji told employees Monday he will stay at the iPhone maker for the time being. A departure would intensify management turnover. In a memo to his team, he said: “I know you’ve been seeing rumors and speculation about my future at Apple.
I think you deserve to hear it from me directly — I love my team, I love what I do at Apple, and I’m not planning to leave anytime soon.”
Forex & Commodities
WTI crude futures closed down 2% at $58.88 per barrel; Brent crude futures down 1.98% at $62.49 per barrel.
COMEX gold futures down 0.54% at $4,219.9 per ounce; COMEX silver futures down 0.94% at $58.5 per ounce.
At the New York close, the ICE Dollar Index rose 0.11% to 99.102.
Key Events
Leading Fed chair candidate speaks out: Rates should continue falling – Wall Street institutions collectively “tear up reports”
At a critical moment, big news from the Fed. On the eve of the December rate meeting, top candidate for next Fed chair, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, suddenly sent an important policy signal. In his latest interview, he said the Fed should continue lowering rates.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 24h −0.06% to $90,395.45.
Ethereum +1.55% to $3,114.56.
XRP +1.18%, BNB −0.08%, Solana +0.88%.
Dogecoin +2.38%, Cardano +3.65%.
Key Events
Santa rally depends on Fed action – cut would push Bitcoin quickly back above $100K
With Fed influence dominating market sentiment, WazirX founder Nischal Shetty said Bitcoin still behaves like a macro-sensitive risk asset and reacts sharply to rate expectations; however, the decentralized, rules-based monetary narrative is strengthening.
Siddhant added that if the Fed does cut this week, the odds of a “Santa rally” rise, and BTC could be pushed toward $100,000; downside support at $87,500 is key.
Delta Exchange derivatives analyst Piyush Walke reminded traders to stay cautious, with potential violent two-way swings around the U.S. rate decision — wait for a confirmed breakout. ZebPay trading head Harish Vatnani believes bulls must hold $86,000; otherwise deeper downside momentum could emerge. For further upside, it needs to break and hold the psychological $100,000 level.