GoAI Market Wrap - 10th Dec
Stock Market
On Tuesday Eastern Time, the three major U.S. indices closed mixed. Investors expect that even if the Fed cuts rates this week, its language may lean hawkish. Meanwhile, the largest U.S. bank JPMorgan warned that expenses will surge significantly in 2026, weighing on bank stocks and capping broader gains.
The Fed kicked off its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. Despite inflation still above the 2% target, traders widely expect a 25 bps cut this week.
Recent policymakers have sent mixed signals: some worry about inflation returning, others are more concerned about labor market health.
The latest Labor Department report didn’t help clarify the outlook — October job openings rose slightly, but hiring remained weak. Additionally, the NFIB report showed businesses plan to add more positions in coming months.
ClearBridge Economics & Market Strategy Head Jeff Schulze said: “The market is leaning toward the Fed being slightly hawkish due to the job openings data.”
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders still assign an 87% probability to a 25 bps cut tomorrow. Schulze, however, believes a pause after tomorrow’s cut is more likely.
Gabelli Funds portfolio manager Justin Bergner noted rising Treasury yields are also pressuring stocks. “Treasury yields rebounding ahead of the Fed decision is no surprise — the rally is pausing.” The 10-year yield rose to 4.18% that day, up for the fourth straight session.
Later this week, Oracle and Broadcom will report earnings, intensifying scrutiny on corporate AI capex. The ongoing bidding war between Paramount and Netflix for Warner Bros. assets also remains in focus.
Global Hotspots
EU climate agency: 2025 basically confirmed as second-hottest year on record
The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service said in a bulletin on the 9th that January–November 2025 global average temperature was 0.6°C above the 1991–2020 baseline and 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels.
It is basically certain that 2025 will tie 2023 as the second-hottest year on record, behind only 2024. Data also show the three-year period 2023–2025 will likely be the first to exceed +1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready to hold elections
On December 9 local time, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said Ukraine is ready to hold elections and requested U.S. and European partners help ensure election security — Ukraine could complete preparations within 60–90 days. Earlier that day, responding to President Trump’s call, Zelenskyy said Ukraine is willing to hold elections.
Trump recently said in an interview that Ukraine should hold elections despite the ongoing conflict with Russia.
UNCTAD: Global trade to reach $35 trillion this year
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) year-end Global Trade Update report shows that driven by East Asia, Africa, and South-South trade, global trade will grow ~7% (+$2.2 trillion) in 2025 to a record $35 trillion.
Although geopolitical tensions, rising costs, and unbalanced global demand slowed growth momentum, trade volume continued rising in H2 2025. Manufacturing (especially electronics) was the main growth engine, while energy and autos lagged. Global trade imbalances remain severe, geopolitics is reshaping trade flows, and 2026 outlook faces uncertainty.
Multiple airlines extend suspension of flights to Venezuela
Air Europa announced on December 9 local time that due to deteriorating security in Caracas and the southern Caribbean amid strained Venezuela-U.S. relations and increased U.S. military deployment, the company will extend suspension of its Madrid-Caracas route until December 19.
Air Europa said it has opened special channels for affected passengers to rebook or change plans. Meanwhile, Spain’s Iberia and Plus Ultra confirmed they will follow Spain’s aviation safety agency recommendation and not fly directly to Venezuela until December 31.
Corporate News
IBM to acquire Confluent for $9.3 billion to expand AI services
IBM will acquire data-streaming platform Confluent Inc. for approximately $9.3 billion — one of its largest acquisitions to date and a major bet on enterprise software needed for real-time AI task execution. IBM will pay $31 per share. Including debt, enterprise value is $11 billion.
The deal is expected to close by mid-2026. If the transaction fails, IBM will pay Confluent a $453.6 million termination fee.
Google’s first Gemini-powered AI glasses to launch in 2026
Google announced Monday it is developing two categories of AI glasses to compete with Meta next year: one with display and audio-focused. The first co-developed AI glasses will launch sometime in 2026. Early hardware partners include Samsung Electronics, Warby Parker, and Gentle Monster, though final designs have not been shown.
Google will also partner with Chinese AR firm Xreal on standalone glasses codenamed “Project Aura” running Android XR, working without a phone but requiring an external battery.
NextEra partners with Google and Exxon to build U.S. data-center power supply
NextEra Energy said Monday it will collaborate with Google Cloud to build new large-scale data-center campuses across the U.S., along with supporting power generation facilities. NextEra is also working with ExxonMobil to develop natural-gas power plants and provide carbon capture & storage solutions for large customers.
The companies are already developing three initial data-center campuses and plan to identify more sites. In October, the two announced plans to restart a NextEra nuclear reactor in Iowa. Exxon and NextEra are jointly developing a potential 1.2 GW power plant, targeting large data centers.
Apple chip chief denies rumors: “No plans to leave in the short term”
Apple chip chief Johny Srouji told employees Monday he will stay at the iPhone maker for the time being. A departure would intensify management turnover. In a memo to his team, he said: “I know you’ve been seeing rumors and speculation about my future at Apple. I think you deserve to hear it from me directly — I love my team, I love what I do at Apple, and I’m not planning to leave anytime soon.”
Forex & Commodities
WTI crude futures closed down 1.07% at $58.25 per barrel; Brent crude futures down 0.88% at $61.94 per barrel.
COMEX gold futures up 0.45% at $4,236.6 per ounce; COMEX silver futures up 4.72% at $61.16 per ounce.
At the New York close, the ICE Dollar Index rose 0.13% to 99.217.
Key Events
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: 2025 WTI crude forecast $65.32/barrel
EIA expects Brent crude at $68.91/barrel in 2025 (prev. $68.76) and $55.08 in 2026 (prev. $54.92). WTI forecast $65.32/barrel in 2025 (prev. $65.15) and $51.42 in 2026 (prev. $51.26).
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 24h +2.20% to $92,495.85.
Ethereum +6.16% to $3,316.96.
XRP +1.14%, BNB −0.01%, Solana +3.59%.
Dogecoin +3.86%, Cardano +8.05%.
Key Events
Wall Street Bitcoin bulls sharply cut short-term forecasts but remain long-term bullish
Some of Wall Street’s most bullish Bitcoin institutions are lowering short-term forecasts, but their long-term bullish stance is unshaken.
Long-time crypto supporter Standard Chartered halved its Bitcoin price forecast amid collapsing corporate treasury demand and weak ETF inflows. The bank now expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by end-2026 (prev. $300,000) and $500,000 long-term target delayed from 2028 to 2030.
At Bernstein, analysts also expect Bitcoin to hit $150,000 by end-next year and near $200,000 by end-2027. The recent drop prompted them to retract their earlier call for $200,000 this year, but they maintain Bitcoin has broken the previous four-year cycle pattern and entered a more sustainable growth track.
Despite remaining bullish, these downgrades mark a clear tone shift. Crypto advocates are adjusting to a harsher market — Bitcoin is down nearly 30% from its October peak above $126,000, with institutional buying reversing. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $60 million net outflows Monday.