Tonight’s Highlights | U.S. Index Futures Mixed on Eve of Fed Decision – Wall Street Awaits Powell’s Cards
The three major U.S. index futures are oscillating narrowly. As of press time, Dow futures are up 0.02%, S&P 500 futures up 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.07%.
On the previous trading day, the three major U.S. indices oscillated narrowly, with the Nasdaq closing up 0.13% and the S&P down less than 0.1%, reflecting traders' caution ahead of the Fed decision. Although a 25 bps cut is almost certain, officials may signal hawkishness.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 89.9% probability of a 25 bps cut, with only a 10.1% chance of holding steady. Besides the decision, the Fed will release the Summary of Economic Projections, including the updated “dot plot” for three-year rate forecasts.
Analysts believe traders are no longer focused on the decision itself, as they see the cut as a done deal. Instead, they’ll scrutinize the “dot plot” and Chair Powell’s tone and wording in the Q&A.
XS.com market analyst Linh Tran wrote that data shows U.S. growth slowing in line with Fed expectations but not weak enough for accelerated cuts. Inflation has eased but remains above target, and the labor market shows resilience.
BNP Paribas executive Stephan Kemper said: “The Fed will cut from a hawkish stance, using the statement, dot plot, and remarks to open the door for future easing without explicit commitments.”
Investors will also closely watch Oracle’s after-hours earnings report, with the stock down 33% from its September high amid growing skepticism on tech valuations and AI investment returns.
European stocks trading now are mixed: Germany DAX −0.55%, UK FTSE 100 +0.41%, France CAC 40 −0.29%.
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