GoAI Market Wrap - 11th Dec
Stock Market
On Wednesday Eastern Time, the Fed cut rates by 25 bps as expected and hinted at pausing further cuts while its latest projections showed the economy remains solid. After Chair Powell explicitly ruled out rate hikes early next year, the three major indices staged a strong late-session rebound, with the S&P 500 closing in on its October all-time high.
Wednesday’s cut itself was largely priced in, so it didn’t trigger dramatic volatility. However, some investors saw new positive signals in Powell’s remarks, interpreting his tone as more dovish than previously expected and his rejection of future hikes as less firm.
The Fed statement said it will wait for clearer signals before the next policy move to assess labor market trends and “still somewhat elevated” inflation.
The newly released dot plot showed policymakers still expect only one more 25 bps cut in 2026 — unchanged from September — and one additional cut in 2027 before rates settle at the long-run 3% level.
Policymakers also raised their 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.8% in September to 2.3% and kept the year-end unemployment projection at 4.4%.
At the press conference, Powell said current policy “is sufficient to address prospective economic conditions” but declined to give any guidance on whether another cut is coming soon.
Powell noted: “I think no one has rate hikes as the base case… Expectations for the policy rate are coming down — either staying where it is, small cuts, or further cuts.” He added: “We are in a very good position to wait and see how the economy evolves.”
Edward Jones Investment Strategy Head Mona Mahajan commented: “When the Fed is in an easing cycle and there’s no recession or clear downside risk to the economy, markets tend to feel good about that backdrop.”
Before the statement, markets were cautious. While investors widely expected the cut, some feared a stronger hawkish signal on the outlook. Some investors disagreed with the “pause further cuts” signal, citing downside pressure on the labor market.
Angeles Investments CIO Michael Rosen said: “The statement emphasized labor market weakness as the main reason for the 25 bps cut this time — markets picked up on that quickly, suggesting the Fed could still continue easing even if 2026 cuts remain unchanged.”
Evercore ISI Vice Chair Krishna Guha wrote: “Powell’s press conference had no surprise hawkish pivot… so investors can be bolder in adding risk exposure.”
Guha noted: “Powell was quite optimistic on productivity and growth, including AI-driven efficiency gains and the broad productivity rebound in recent years. This view on productivity and growth is clearly favorable for risk assets.”
Global Hotspots
Fed cuts 25 bps as expected, expects only one more cut in 2026
The FOMC released its latest rate decision, cutting 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75% as expected. Among 12 voting members, Kansas City Fed President Schmid and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee dissented, preferring to hold rates steady; Fed Governor Milan supported a 50 bps cut.
The closely watched dot plot showed policymakers expect only one more 25 bps cut in 2026, one in 2027, then rates settle at long-run 3%. The Fed said it will begin expanding its balance sheet this month, purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasuries, with purchases expected to remain elevated for several months before tapering sharply.
Powell: Fed shifting to wait-and-see, rate hikes not base case currently
After the expected 25 bps cut, Chair Powell said current rates are well-positioned to address economic prospects but offered no guidance on near-term further cuts. Powell noted: “Notably, since September last year we have cut a cumulative 175 bps, including 75 bps since September this year.
The federal funds rate is now roughly in neutral territory, and we are in a good position to wait and see how the economy evolves.” Notably, after Powell said no one has rate hikes as the base case, the three major U.S. indices began a sharp rebound.
Corporate News
Roche breast cancer drug giredestrant reduces recurrence risk 30% in trial
Roche said Wednesday its oral investigational drug giredestrant reduced breast cancer recurrence risk 30% versus standard endocrine therapy in a Phase III trial — the first major advance in the field in over 20 years. Three-year data showed 92.4% disease-free survival in the giredestrant arm versus 89.6% in the control arm. Roche CMO said this means 30% of patients who would have relapsed were spared.
GE Vernova raises multi-year guidance on AI data-center boom
Thanks to explosive AI data-center expansion, U.S. power equipment leader GE Vernova raised multi-year guidance, doubled its dividend, and increased share buyback authorization, sending shares to an all-time high Wednesday. CEO Scott Strazik said at investor day that surging power demand from large data centers will drive 80 GW of combined-cycle gas turbine contracts by year-end.
Strazik added the company has sold out all gas turbine capacity through 2028, with only 10% remaining for 2029.
Adobe launches Photoshop, Express, Acrobat for ChatGPT
Adobe announced Wednesday on its website the launch of Photoshop, Express, and Acrobat for ChatGPT. Users can access the tools directly in the chatbot: beautify photos with text prompts in PS, design letters with Express, edit PDFs with Acrobat. The tools are free in ChatGPT with some limits, no need to leave the bot. For Adobe, the partnership exposes its products to ChatGPT’s 800M+ weekly active users.
Meta shifting fully to closed-source models – new “Avocado” model may launch spring 2026
After investing tens of billions to build one of tech history’s most expensive teams, Meta CEO Zuckerberg is deeply involved in day-to-day R&D and pushing a strategic pivot to directly monetizable AI models. Sources say the new model codenamed “Avocado” is expected in spring 2026 and may be closed-source (strictly controlled by Meta with paid access).
The shift is reportedly driven by caution toward overseas competitors.
Oracle cloud sales miss expectations, down over 6% after-hours
Oracle reported disappointing cloud revenue, suggesting its recent massive AI orders may take longer to materialize. Q2 cloud sales rose 34% to $7.98B; infrastructure revenue rose 68% to $4.08B — both slightly below analyst estimates. Remaining performance obligations (order backlog) jumped to $523B, above the $519B consensus.
Forex & Commodities
WTI crude futures closed up 0.36% at $58.46 per barrel. Brent crude futures up 0.44% at $62.21 per barrel.
Spot silver up 1.91% at $61.798 per ounce, new all-time high. COMEX gold futures up 0.52% at $4,258.3 per ounce; COMEX silver futures up 2.24% at $62.2 per ounce.
On December 11, the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.43% to 98.789.
Key Events
Wall Street believes oil sell-off far from over – to fall further in 2026 on oversupply
Brent crude futures near $62 per barrel are expected to fall to ~$59 in 2026 per average forecasts from BofA, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. The international benchmark is down 17% this year.
The five banks’ average forecast shows a ~2.2M b/d global oversupply next year — less than IEA’s record 4M b/d estimate, though producer adjustments could narrow it.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 24h −0.81% to $91,427.14.
Ethereum −0.90% to $3,279.41.
XRP −3.04%, BNB −1.06%, Solana −2.67%.
Dogecoin −4.02%, Cardano −4.39%.
Key Events
Standard Chartered sharply lowers Bitcoin price forecasts
One of Wall Street’s biggest Bitcoin bulls has significantly cut its forecasts.
Standard Chartered Global Digital Assets Research Head Geoff Kendrick previously saw Bitcoin reaching $200K by end-2025. In a new report, he told clients the bank has slashed its Bitcoin price forecasts through 2030.
Kendrick now expects Bitcoin around $100K by year-end (up 6% from current levels). Next year he sees $150K — half the previous $300K target. The bank also cut its 2027 target from $400K to $225K, 2028 from $500K to $300K, and 2029 from $500K to $400K.