APAC Market Wrap – Dec 15

Mainland China stock market:At the close, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.55%, the Shenzhen Component fell 1.1%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.77%.

 

In terms of sectors, dairy, insurance, retail, precious metals and others led the gains, while CPO, film & cinema chains, semiconductors and others were among the biggest decliners.

 

Hong Kong stock market:Hong Kong’s three major indices all weakened. At the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.34% to 25,628.88 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.48% to 5,498.42 points; the H-Shares Index fell 1.78% to 8,917.70 points.  

 

Today’s Hong Kong market showed clear divergence. Optical communications, semiconductors, internet tech, pharmaceuticals and most other stocks weakened, while apparel, gold and others rose against the trend.

 

Japanese stock market:The Nikkei Index fell 1.31% to 50,168.11 points.  

 

By industry, land transportation, transportation equipment, banks and others rose, while non-ferrous metals, steel, electrical equipment and others declined.

 

Korean stock market:The KOSPI fell 1.84% to 4,090.59 points. Non-ferrous metals, utilities, roads & rail transport and others rose, while airlines, cards, electrical equipment and others declined.

 

Australian stock market:The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.72% to 8,635.000 points. Aerospace, furniture, industrial products and others rose, while semiconductors, other energy, biotechnology and others declined.

 

Singapore stock market:The FTSE Singapore Straits Times Index STI rose 0.06% to 4,589.17 points. Education, transportation, insurance and others rose, while forestry products, auto & parts, semiconductors and others fell.

 

Malaysian stock market:The FTSE Malaysia KLCI rose 0.36% to 1,643.72 points. Healthcare, telecom & media and others rose, while tech, construction and others edged lower.

Key Events  

Possibly next month! BOJ to start ¥83 trillion ETF sell-off plan – could take 112 years  

 

Industry sources say BOJ officials may begin selling the bank’s ETF holdings as early as next month (January 2026), a process expected to take over a century.  

 

At the September policy meeting, the BOJ decided to gradually sell its ETFs and REITs in the market while avoiding volatility.  

 

As of end-September, these assets had a market value of ¥83 trillion (~$534 billion) and book value of ¥37.1 trillion.

 

Strongest in eight years! A quiet big winner in global markets this year: Emerging market currencies  

 

Few may notice a niche corner of the global FX market — the Hungarian forint — but trading volume in this long-obscure EM currency has doubled since President Trump took office in January. With Trump’s “Liberation Day” full import tariff policy announced in April, trader interest has surged.  

 

This isn’t isolated — many traders, strategists, and hedge funds say they’re scouring the $10 trillion/day global FX market’s remote corners.  

 

The forint is up ~20% vs USD YTD, on track for its best year in nearly 25 years and one of 2025’s top EM currencies.  

 

Broader EM currency benchmarks are shining: The MSCI EM Currency Index hit a record high in July and is up over 6% YTD, on pace for its best year since 2017. Traders, fund managers, and analysts widely expect the trend to continue next year.

 

TSMC monopoly challenged? Samsung reportedly in talks with AMD on 2nm chips  

 

Samsung is accelerating efforts to secure clients for its advanced processes. After landing sizable orders from Apple and Tesla, it is reportedly discussing foundry possibilities with AMD.  

 

While TSMC remains the dominant supplier for 2nm chips, its capacity is severely constrained, and Samsung’s 2nm technology is gaining recognition with rapid foundry growth — competition is heating up fast.  

 

Sources say AMD is discussing 2nm cooperation with Samsung Foundry and may co-develop next-gen CPUs, likely EPYC Venice or possibly consumer Olympic Ridge, expected late 2026.

Institutional Views  

Standard Chartered: Gold price to hit new highs in 2026  

 

Standard Chartered expects gold to set new records in 2026, forecasting average $4,488/oz in 2026 and Q4 average $4,750/oz.

 

HSBC: Dollar weakness expected to persist into 2026  

 

HSBC Global FX Research Head Paul Mackel said: “Our base case is for the dollar to weaken broadly by year-end and into 2026.” Key U.S. labor data due Tuesday could require very strong figures to derail Fed cut pricing and sharply lift the dollar.

 

Citigroup: Upcoming nonfarm payrolls may send more mixed signals  

 

Financial Times analysis notes Tuesday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls will include October and November data, giving policymakers and investors a fuller labor picture after months of partial blindness. The Fed cut to a three-year low in a divided meeting, with dissents over prioritizing high inflation vs weak jobs.

 

Citi economists say the latest report may send more mixed signals. They forecast ~45K job losses in October but +80K in November. Citi says the rebound may be more seasonal adjustment than “real improvement in worker demand.” They predict unemployment rising from 4.4% to 4.52%, vs Reuters economist survey of 4.4%. The Fed’s own quarterly forecast shows year-end unemployment median ~4.5%.

 

Goldman Sachs: Bullish on U.S. stocks in 2026, six major tech firms to contribute nearly half growth  

 

Goldman Sachs expects markets to remain strong in 2026, setting S&P 500 target at 7,600. Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Ben Snider said AI-driven productivity will lift earnings, with S&P 500 EPS growing 12% to $305, nearly half from six major tech firms.

 

While mega-tech remains the main driver, Snider expects earnings improvement in other index components. Risks include Fed slowing easing and margin pressure, but overall outlook remains positive.

 

UBS: AI-themed stocks expected to rise further in 2026  

 

UBS Wealth Management CIO said strong capex trends and accelerating AI adoption will drive further gains for AI stocks in 2026. UBS Wealth Management APAC CIO & Head of CIO Office Min Lan Tan added: “AI development paths differ by region. The U.S. focuses on cutting-edge infrastructure and large models; China emphasizes algorithm efficiency, tech self-reliance, and industrial applications. This means potential beneficiaries in regional tech supply chains may also differ.”