Tonight’s Highlights | Economic Data Fails to Clear U.S. Economy Fog, Three Major Futures Flatline Pre-Market

Amid the ongoing drag from U.S. “AI trades” weighing on global markets, the latest delayed U.S. economic data provided some (but limited) lift pre-market, narrowing futures declines slightly.  

 

As of press time, Nasdaq 100 futures (March 2603 contract) are down 0.39%, S&P 500 futures off 0.21%, and Dow futures down 0.11%.  

 

The long-overdue U.S. data showed November nonfarm payrolls added 64,000 jobs (expected 50,000); October revised down by 105,000—the largest drop since late 2020—with August and September combined down 33,000; November unemployment rate 4.6% (expected 4.5%); October retail sales flat (expected +0.1%).  

 

(U.S. nonfarm payrolls, source: tradingeconomics)  

 

Post-data, the dollar index briefly dipped below 98 on higher November unemployment, October job losses, and weak October retail, before rebounding. Spot gold quickly erased a nearly 1% intraday drop. Traders still price in two Fed cuts next year.  

 

Due to the historic government shutdown, November’s jobs report wasn’t released on its usual Friday. Data quality is highly uncertain. The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted in Monday’s update that missing October data raises November’s standard error above normal.  

 

The data’s limitations seem to temper market reactions.  

 

Fed Chair Powell said last week: “We’ll get the data, but we have to interpret it very cautiously and with some skepticism... it could be distorted by some very technical factors.”  

 

Powell added that even pre-shutdown, job surveys overestimated additions. May-September averaged +39,000 reported but possibly -20,000 actual.

Other Market News  

EU set to drop 2035 combustion engine ban  

 

Tuesday reports say the EU Commission will ease its 2035 ban on new gasoline/diesel car sales, allowing some plug-in hybrids and range-extender EVs. The new proposal targets 90% emissions cut from current levels (vs. original 100%).  

 

Morgan Stanley: Seagate HDD margins to top 50% next 12 months  

 

In Monday’s report, Morgan Stanley reiterated “overweight” on Seagate, expecting HDD margins over 50% in the next year amid persistent shortages through 2027.  

 

Google, TotalEnergies sign 21-year green power deal  

 

French energy giant TotalEnergies said Tuesday it signed a 21-year PPA with Google to supply 1 TWh of renewables to Google’s Malaysia data centers, starting Q1 next year.  

 

“U.S. PayPal” applies to form a bank  

 

PayPal announced Monday it applied to Utah regulators and the FDIC to charter “PayPal Bank,” an industrial loan company, to more efficiently lend to U.S. small businesses.  

 

Medline to price 2025’s likely largest IPO Tuesday  

 

U.S. medical supplier Medline will set IPO pricing Tuesday evening, listing on Nasdaq Global Select Wednesday. At the high end, it could raise $5.37 billion, edging out CATL for 2025’s biggest IPO.  

 

Ford scales back EV ambitions, pivots excess battery plants to energy storage  

 

Ford announced Monday a major EV pullback, refocusing investment on hybrids and smaller/cheaper EVs, taking $19.5 billion in special charges (mostly Q4) and $5.5 billion cash outlay (mostly 2026). LFP battery plants licensed from CATL will proceed but shift to new energy storage business.  

 

“Cathie Wood” buys AI and crypto dips  

 

Ark Invest’s latest filings show Cathie Wood’s funds added to beaten-down AI and crypto names Monday. The three ETFs bought 550,000 BMNR (Ethereum treasury) shares and added to Coinbase and Circle.

 

Ark also picked up 136,000 CoreWeave shares; the emerging cloud provider fell 8% Monday, down over 60% from June highs.