GoAI Market Wrap - 31th Dec

Stock Market  

Overnight and this morning, the three major U.S. indices closed slightly lower for the third consecutive trading day. During the year-end holidays, the market overall lacked major catalysts to drive direction, and investors showed little enthusiasm for placing orders. Meanwhile, silver and copper — which plunged from record highs yesterday — staged significant rebounds today.  

 

At the close: S&P 500 Index −0.14% to 6,896.24 points. Nasdaq Composite Index −0.24% to 23,419.08 points. Dow Jones Industrial Average −0.2% to 48,367.06 points.  

 

This is not surprising. Global stock markets have delivered strong returns this year, so investors taking a year-end break is understandable.  

 

As long as there is no plunge tonight, the S&P 500 will enter 2026 with eight consecutive monthly gains — its longest streak since 2017.  

 

As the last U.S. policy event of the year, the Fed minutes released hours ago showed most policymakers believe further rate cuts are appropriate if inflation continues declining over time. However, some participants indicated that after the December cut, it may be suitable to “pause” for a period.  

 

Metals remain one of the few market focuses. After Monday’s 7% plunge, COMEX silver futures rose nearly 8% Tuesday. London spot silver up over 5%. LME copper rebounded over 3% after yesterday’s high pullback. Gold edged higher after an intraday surge and retreat. Meanwhile, LME nickel surged 6% on Indonesia’s planned capacity cuts — hitting a near one-year high.  

 

Non-ferrous metals were among Tuesday’s few bright spots: Silvercorp Metals +3.62%, Newmont +2.05%.  

 

Given large volumes of deliverable silver still held in the U.S. awaiting a trade investigation outcome, precious metals volatility is likely to persist into next year.

Global Hotspots  

Fed minutes show significant internal divergence  

 

The Fed’s December meeting minutes revealed notable divergence on the future rate path. While most participants supported continued cuts, “some” said it may be appropriate to hold the target range steady for a period after the December cut.  

 

India says its GDP has surpassed Japan – now world’s fourth-largest economy  

 

India’s Press Information Bureau released a year-end economic assessment December 29 showing India’s GDP has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy — potentially surpassing Germany in three years. This is a preliminary estimate; official figures will come from 2026 annual GDP calculations.  

 

Zelenskyy denies talks collapsed: Dialogue with U.S. continues daily  

 

On December 30 local time, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy told reporters he denies Russian claims of collapsed U.S.-Ukraine talks, saying dialogue with the U.S. continues daily. Zelenskyy confirmed ongoing negotiations with President Trump on deploying U.S. troops to Ukraine but stressed the decision rests entirely with U.S. leadership.  

Corporate News  

Tesla website unusually posts compiled analyst delivery consensus  

 

Tesla fell over 1% Tuesday. The company unusually posted on its investor relations site a compiled Q4 2025 delivery consensus from selected sell-side analysts: expecting 422,850 vehicles delivered (down 15% YoY) and 13.4 GWh energy storage deployed.  

 

By comparison, other compilations expect 440,907 deliveries (−11% YoY).  

 

SoftBank reportedly completes $40 billion OpenAI investment commitment  

 

Media reported Tuesday, citing sources, that Japan’s SoftBank Group has completed its $40 billion commitment to OpenAI — one of the largest private financings ever, further deepening founder Masayoshi Son’s AI strategy.  

 

Musk confirms xAI data center expansion to 2 GW  

 

World’s richest man Musk confirmed Tuesday that xAI plans to expand its Memphis supercomplex — purchasing a third building in the area to boost compute to nearly 2 GW. xAI already built Colossus in Memphis and is constructing Colossus 2 nearby. Sources say the new building adjoins Colossus 2.  

 

Nvidia reportedly in talks to acquire Israel’s AI21 Labs for up to $3 billion  

 

Reports say Nvidia is in advanced talks to acquire Israeli AI startup AI21 Labs for up to $3 billion. Nvidia’s main interest appears to be the ~200 employees — mostly highly educated with “rare AI development expertise.”  

 

Warner Bros. reportedly to reject Paramount bid next week  

 

Sources say Warner Bros. plans to reject Paramount’s bid next week — viewing the valuation as unchanged and still favoring Netflix’s offer.  

Forex & Commodities  

COMEX silver futures up $5.555 (+7.88%) to $76.015/oz; spot silver up $4.14 (+5.74%) to $76.28/oz.  

 

COMEX platinum futures up $85.4 (+4%) to $2,220/oz.  

 

LME copper up $451.5 (+3.69%) to $12,673.5/tonne. COMEX gold futures front-month continuous up $8.70 (+0.20%) to $4,352.3/oz. International oil prices fell December 30.  

 

NYMEX WTI crude futures front-month continuous down $0.13 to $57.95/barrel (−0.22%).

Key Events  

OPEC+ expected to maintain production pause amid global oversupply pressure  

 

Multiple OPEC+ representatives say, amid growing signs of global crude oversupply, the group is expected at this weekend’s meeting to stick with its pause on further increases.  

 

OPEC+ — the alliance of OPEC and Russia-led countries — accounts for nearly half global crude output.  

 

OPEC+ holds its monthly video meeting January 4 to review a November decision to pause further supply hikes in Q1 next year after faster restorations this year.  

 

Representatives say the group confirmed this policy earlier this month — likely to reaffirm in January.

Cryptocurrency  

Bitcoin 24h +1.29% to $88,156.74.  

 

Ethereum +1.03% to $2,960.20.  

 

XRP +1.27%, BNB +0.98%, Solana +1.64%.  

 

Dogecoin +0.24%, Cardano −0.74%.

Key Events  

Strategy CEO: Bitcoin fundamentals best ever this year – not too concerned about short-term performance  

 

Strategy CEO Phong Le said in a podcast that Bitcoin market fundamentals are the best ever this year — he’s not too worried about short-term performance. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $125,100 on October 5 before falling nearly 30%.

 

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has shown “extreme fear” since December 12. Le acknowledged Bitcoin price has its own rhythm — not always easy to explain; as an investor, consider the asset class’s long-term trajectory.