Global Highlights This Week: Venezuela Situation, US Non-Farm Payrolls Report, "Tech Spring Festival" CES
With the stunning surge in Chinese and South Korean tech stocks on Friday kicking off a "strong start" for the 2026 global capital markets, this week's market will usher in the first full trading week of the new year. Key US employment data and the early-year tech industry extravaganza are piling up, potentially igniting traders' new year trading enthusiasm.
For the S&P 500 index, which has been "struggling to break 7000 points" since late October last year without success, this week's US December non-farm payrolls report will set the tone for the first wave of the new year's rally. Two weeks ago, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics "reissued" non-farm data showing an increase of 64,000 jobs in November, but a decrease of 105,000 in October, marking the largest decline since late 2020.
(US Non-Farm Employment Data, Source: tradingeconomics)
Starting from the second half of last year, the US job market has cooled significantly, with half of the months showing a net decrease in employment. If the downturn in the US labor market continues to intensify, the Federal Reserve may have to implement more substantial rate cuts.
The current US federal funds rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%. Most officials currently believe that the so-called "neutral rate" is around 3%, corresponding to two more 25-basis-point rate cuts in this easing cycle.
Speaking of the Fed, there's another uncertainty: Trump will announce his nominee for the next Fed chair in January, but the exact timing is unclear.
This week, major economies outside the US will see a wave of PMI and CPI data releases. Among them, preliminary December inflation data for France and Germany is scheduled for Tuesday, with the entire Eurozone data on Wednesday. For the European Central Bank, which is already in a "good position," these data are unlikely to affect its expectation of no rate cuts in the coming months.
On the individual stock front, the new round of US earnings season won't start until JPMorgan kicks it off on January 13. In this relatively idle period, Jefferies, Tilray, and Fast Retailing will release their latest earnings.
For the global tech sector, this week will feature the opening CES 2026 consumer electronics show. The event will run from the 6th to the 9th, but tech leaders including NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang and AMD CEO Lisa Su will deliver keynote speeches on January 5. Asian tech forces like Alibaba, Lenovo, Samsung Electronics, and LG will make a concentrated appearance in Las Vegas. The first "18A" chip, crucial to Intel's foundry business fate, will also surface at that time.
According to public information, several companies at this year's CES will showcase home robots, AI glasses, wearable devices, and other new products attracting capital market attention. How various manufacturers cope with the memory price surge for laptops and PCs will also be a hot topic this week.
Additionally, last weekend's sudden developments have added a geopolitical event to this week's agenda. According to the latest news before publication, the US boldly launched military action against Venezuela on Saturday, and the plane carrying captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife Flores has arrived in New York. Earlier reports suggested Maduro might appear in US federal court in New York on the 5th, but this arrangement may change.
Meanwhile, how the situation in Venezuela will unfold domestically remains completely unclear.
The bigger issue lies with Trump. The US president, known for challenging American legal boundaries, is this time challenging the UN Charter.
According to Article 2, Paragraph 4 of the UN Charter, all member states shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force or any other means inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations against the territorial integrity or political independence of any member state or country.
Yet the US president not only launched military action against Venezuela, captured the country's head of state, but also announced temporary "management" of the country.
Therefore, Trump is currently facing dual pressures from the international community and domestically in the US. Given that Trump didn't even notify the US Congress before the action, he also needs to explain whether this move violates the US Constitution.
This Week's Key Financial Events Overview
Monday (January 5): South Korean President Lee Jae-myung conducts a state visit to China from January 4 to 7
Tuesday (January 6): Eurozone December PMI data, US December S&P Global PMI final value, France/Germany December CPI, Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas (until the 9th)
Wednesday (January 7): Eurozone December CPI, US December ADP employment change, US November JOLTs job openings
Thursday (January 8): US October wholesale sales data, US October trade balance
Friday (January 9): China December CPI, US December non-farm payrolls report, Silicon Valley Auto Show opens