APAC Market Wrap – Jan 6
Mainland China stock market: At the close, the Shanghai Composite rose 1.5%, the Shenzhen Component rose 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.75%.
From a sector perspective, commercial aerospace concepts continued to surge, major financials rallied collectively, chemicals strengthened, and non-ferrous metals were active.
Hong Kong stock market: Hong Kong’s three major indices closed higher collectively today. At the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.38% to 26,710.45 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.46% to 5,825.26 points; the H-Shares Index rose 1.05% to 9,244.24 points.
From market performance, major financials, gold/non-ferrous, pharmaceuticals and others led gains. Road transport, pork, and some retail stocks declined.
Japanese stock market:The Nikkei Index rose 1.32% to 52,518.08 points. By industry, all 33 sectors rose except pharmaceuticals and electricity/gas — oil/coal, securities/commodities futures, real estate, and banks performed especially strongly.
Korean stock market:The KOSPI rose 1.52% to 4,525.48 points. Securities, North Korea-related, air freight and others rose, while non-ferrous metals, cosmetics, health management, electrical equipment and others declined.
Australian stock market:The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.52% to 8,682.800 points. Aerospace, steel, agriculture and others rose, while semiconductors, homebuilding, medical staging and others declined.
Singapore stock market: The FTSE Singapore Straits Times Index STI rose 1.27% to 4,739.97 points. Insurance, conglomerates, waste management and others rose, while apparel, personalized services, transportation and others declined.
Malaysian stock market: The FTSE Malaysia KLCI fell 0.47% to 1,672.35 points. Telecom & media, real estate, tech and others rose, while closed-end funds, healthcare, utilities and others declined.
Key Events
AI Sparks Memory Chip Price Surge – Samsung Q4 Operating Profit Expected to Soar 160%
Thursday (Jan 8), world’s largest memory chip maker Samsung Electronics will release preliminary Q4 2025 results. Amid AI-driven memory shortages fueling price hikes, analysts expect Q4 operating profit to surge 160% YoY.
Recent months saw sustained memory price rises. On one hand, industry shifting to AI-related chips squeezes traditional memory capacity; on the other, training/running AI models boosts demand for both conventional and high-end chips.
Per LSEG SmartEstimate from 31 top analysts, Samsung’s October–December operating profit is forecast at ₩16.9 trillion (~$11.7 billion) — far above last year’s ₩6.49 trillion.
This would be the highest quarterly profit since Q3 2018’s record ₩17.6 trillion.
Venezuela Turmoil Does Not Alter Emerging Markets Investment Mainline – Multiple Institutions Recommend Increasing Allocation to Related Assets
Emerging markets are expected to continue attracting capital in 2026, primarily due to the persistent weakness of the dollar and investors' optimism toward the Asian tech sector, particularly artificial intelligence.
On Monday, despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty from the U.S. arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, the dollar — as a safe-haven tool — still declined, with the Dollar Index closing down 0.16%. Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Benchmark Index recovered losses during trading, and emerging market currencies like those of Colombia and Brazil rose amid the geopolitical disturbance.
Monex USA Senior Trader Juan Perez said emerging market currencies have returned to the upward trend that began last year. U.S. actions in Venezuela are unlikely to translate into strong dollar gains — the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven is waning.
Institutional Views
Goldman Sachs: Oil Prices Face Downward Pressure in 2027 and Beyond
After last weekend’s U.S. military action arresting Venezuelan President Maduro triggered oil price drops, CAD and NOK weakened. Markets worry Venezuela’s vast reserves could eventually boost output, pressuring prices.
Goldman analysts wrote: “Combined with recent above-expectation production from Russia and the U.S., Venezuela’s long-term potential growth further heightens our downside risks for oil price forecasts in 2027 and beyond.”
Saxo Bank: Oversupply Narrative Overrides Geopolitical Shock – Venezuela Changes Unlikely to Shake Oil Prices Soon
Saxo Bank Commodity Strategist Ole Hansen said current Venezuela impact on global oil markets remains limited. Hansen noted: “While reduced supply is notable, it’s partly offset by spare capacity elsewhere and oversupply from recent months’ increases.
This oversupply continues dominating 2026 and longer-term narratives.” He emphasized unless evidence of spreading turmoil — especially considering Iran’s domestic unrest or broader geopolitical escalation — crude prices are more likely to move on global supply-demand balance than single-country shocks.
UOB: Bullish on Long-Term Gold Bull – End-2026 Target $4,600/oz
UOB analysts wrote that gold faces intensifying volatility and speculation risks. They noted rising implied lease rates and implied volatility amid wider weekly swings.
UOB added that unprecedented precious metals swings in 2025’s final trading week signal heightened speculation. Retail frenzy into gold/precious products amid physical bar accumulation likely exacerbated year-end liquidity squeeze. UOB maintains gold forecasts: end-2026 at $4,600/oz, eventually $5,000/oz long-term.