JPMorgan Survey: U.S. Mid-Sized Firms Shift to "Cautious Optimism" on 2026 Economic Outlook

Optimism among U.S. mid-sized firms toward the U.S. economy has cooled.

 

According to a latest survey released by JPMorgan on Wednesday, only 39% of U.S. mid-sized firm executives expressed optimism about the national economic outlook for 2026 — a significant drop from 65% a year ago, when confidence in the U.S. economy hit a five-year high.

 

JPMorgan's head of commercial banking, Melissa Smith, described the outlook as "cautious optimism." In an interview, she said: "I think people feel good about the fundamentals of the economy."

 

But she added: "The 'cautious' part is because geopolitical uncertainty remains very high, and I think that's impacting people's judgments."

 

However, when examining their own businesses, respondents showed relatively higher confidence. Among over 1,400 surveyed executives, 51% were optimistic about their industry's performance in 2026 — down from 60% last year; 71% were confident in their own firm's 2026 prospects, roughly flat with last year's 74%.

 

Expectations for sales, profits, and hiring eased slightly but not dramatically.

 

About 73% of respondents expect revenue growth in 2026, 64% anticipate profit increases, and 48% plan workforce expansion. By comparison, last year these figures were 74%, 65%, and 51%.

 

U.S. mid-sized firm sentiment is often seen as an important economic "barometer." JPMorgan defines the "mid-market" as firms with annual revenues between $20 million and $500 million. The bank says these firms account for about one-third of U.S. private-sector revenue and employment.

 

These firms are also key, stable client sources for U.S. banks and the rising private credit funds in recent years; they serve as core channels for private equity M&A and exits, and are important business sources for M&A advisors.

 

Despite the weakened overall economic confidence, the survey shows respondents' belief in other growth strategies has generally strengthened. The proportion planning to incorporate M&A into their next 12-month growth strategy rose from 31% last year to 39%.