Gold and Silver Both Hit New Highs! Geopolitical Storm + Rate Cut Bets Set Stage for Another “Crazy Bull Year” in Precious Metals?

 

Monday morning, precious metals exploded out of the gate: spot gold surged over 2%, breaking above $4,600 for the first time, up $280 in the first month of the year; spot silver rocketed more than 5%, blasting through $83 to a new all-time high.

 

The rally is fueled by rising geopolitical risk driving safe-haven demand, combined with Friday’s weak nonfarm payrolls reinforcing market bets on Fed rate cuts.

Geopolitical Risks on the Rise

According to CCTV News, U.S. officials say President Trump is considering multiple options for intervening in Iran, including sending carrier strike groups to the Middle East, launching cyber attacks, and information warfare.

 

Reports indicate the Trump administration recently held preliminary meetings to “discuss ways to support protest activity,” including potential U.S. military strikes on Iranian government targets—though many inside the administration believe major military action at this stage would undermine the protests.

 

Sources say Trump is weighing all options but hasn’t made a final decision. Earlier reports noted Trump received briefings on military strike plans against Iran. While no final call has been made, he is seriously considering authorizing strikes.

 

Separately, led by the UK and Germany, some European countries are discussing plans to strengthen military presence in Greenland to signal to President Trump that Europe takes Arctic security seriously. Insiders say Germany will propose a NATO joint task force to protect the Arctic region.

 

Previously, the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife in a military operation and removed them from Venezuela.

 

With mounting global uncertainty and geopolitical risks, traditional safe-haven assets like gold are seeing strong inflows.

Weak Nonfarm Data Boosts Rate Cut Odds?

At the same time, Friday evening’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report came in mixed, further strengthening expectations for Fed rate cuts and providing support for gold prices. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that December nonfarm payrolls rose 50,000 (expected 70,000), while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% (expected 4.5%).

 

November nonfarm was revised down from +64,000 to +56,000, October from −105,000 to −173,000, for a combined downward revision of 76,000 over two months.

 

Overall, 2025 U.S. nonfarm payrolls totaled 584,000—sharply down from 2 million in 2024.

 

Per “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos, 2025 private-sector monthly job growth averaged 61,000—the weakest since the 2003 “jobless recovery” outside a recession.

 

After the data, markets still price the first Fed cut in April or June 2026, with another possible later in the year.