APAC Market Wrap – Jan 12
China Stock Market: At close, the Shanghai Composite rose 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component gained 1.75%, and the ChiNext Index climbed 1.82%.
AI application concepts exploded across the board, commercial aerospace continued strong, photoresist concepts performed well, while brain-computer interface concepts pulled back. On the downside, insurance, oil & gas, and real estate sectors lagged.
Hong Kong Stock Market: Benefiting from ongoing positive AI industry news, Hong Kong’s three major indices closed higher today. At close, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.44% to 26,608.48 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 3.10% to 5,863.20 points, and the H-share Index gained 1.90% to 9,220.08 points.
The market showed structural strength, with tech/internet, AI applications, SaaS, AI healthcare, paper, film/entertainment, and commercial aerospace leading gains, while pharma R&D services and lithium battery sectors corrected.
Japan Stock Market:The Nikkei Index rose 1.61% to 51,939.89 points.
Retail, mining, and transport equipment gained, while fisheries, non-ferrous metals, and precision instruments fell.
Korea Stock Market:The KOSPI rose 0.84% to 4,624.79 points. Air freight, autos, and department stores gained, while biotech engineering, internet, and pharma declined.
Australia Stock Market:The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.48% to 8,759.40 points. Construction materials, travel/leisure, and diversified financials gained, while agriculture, industrial products, and insurance fell.
Singapore Stock Market:The Straits Times Index (STI) rose 0.54% to 4,770.07 points.
Apparel, cyclical retail, and alternative energy gained, while forestry products, insurance, and agriculture declined.
Malaysia Stock Market:The FTSE Malaysia KLSE Index rose 0.53% to 1,695.44 points.
Real estate, plantations, and business trusts gained, while tech, industrial products/services, and other sectors eased lower.
Key Events
TSMC Q4 Earnings Preview: AI Demand to Drive 27% Profit Surge, Record High
Chip foundry giant TSMC’s Q4 net profit is expected to jump 27%, hitting a record high, thanks to massive demand for AI infrastructure.
LSEG SmartEstimate data from 19 senior analysts shows TSMC is projected to report NT$475.2 billion (~$15.02 billion) in net profit for the quarter ended December 2025.
If achieved, this would mark the company’s highest-ever quarterly profit and its eighth straight quarter of earnings growth.
Grok Fakes Run Wild! Malaysia and Indonesia Officially Ban Grok
Elon Musk’s Grok chatbot may be in trouble. Malaysia and Indonesia have blocked the tool due to its generation of deepfake images and videos—making them the first countries worldwide to ban Grok for this reason.
Grok is widely used on the X platform, where it auto-generates images based on user prompts. In recent weeks, it has been used to create explicit deepfakes of real people, drawing government attention.
X and Grok also face political pressure in the UK. UK Tech Secretary Liz Kendall has said X should be banned there for failing to comply with online safety laws.
Musk accused the UK government of suppressing free speech, calling Britain a “prison island,” and said critics are looking for new excuses.
Saudi Stock Market to Fully Open to Foreign Investors Next Month—How International Firms View It
On Tuesday last week, Saudi Capital Market Authority (CMA) announced sweeping reforms, including full market access for all foreign investors starting February 1, 2026, scrapping the Qualified Foreign Investor (QFI) concept and removing strict asset size/experience requirements.
Saxo Bank Middle East and North Africa trading head Hamza Dweik said the reform is expected to attract $9–10 billion in inflows. As of Q3 2025, foreign investors held SAR 519 billion (~$138 billion) in the main market.
The changes should boost liquidity in the over SAR 3 trillion (~$800 billion) Saudi market and lift its weight in global emerging market indices from ~3.2% to 4.7%.
Foreign investors are expected to focus on areas aligned with Saudi Vision 2030 priorities: tech/digital transformation, renewables/green hydrogen, mining/metals, logistics, and infrastructure.
Institutional Views
Goldman Sachs: Fed likely holds in January, but cuts twice more in 2026
Goldman Sachs multi-sector fixed income head Lindsey Rosner on U.S. nonfarm: “Goodbye, January! The Fed will likely stay put now that the labor market shows early signs of stabilization.
The unemployment rate improvement suggests November’s big jump was due to delayed separations and data distortions—not systemic weakness. We expect the Fed to hold steady but still cut twice more in 2026.”
JPMorgan: Fed rate cut expectations for 2026 scrapped, 25 bps hike expected in Q3 2027
After the jobs data, JPMorgan no longer expects Fed cuts in 2026 (previously 25 bps in January 2026); it now forecasts a 25 bps hike in Q3 2027.
Société Générale: Lower unemployment and higher wages give Fed more reason to hold in January
Société Générale U.S. rates strategist Subadra Rajappa on nonfarm: “Focus is on unemployment rate as job growth continues to slow.
The drop in unemployment and rise in wages give the Fed more justification to stay put in January. Bond market reaction to this key indicator was muted. No news is good news for risk assets. We’re still treading water… no volatility yet.”
Goldman Sachs: Despite geopolitical risks, oil prices likely to trend lower
Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, Goldman Sachs commodities team says oil prices could trend lower this year due to ample supply. They note rising global inventories mean rebalancing likely requires further price declines in 2026 unless major supply disruptions or OPEC cuts occur.
Analysts add that while geopolitics may keep prices volatile, ongoing supply waves create a 2.3 million bpd surplus risk. Goldman forecasts 2026 Brent at $56/bbl and WTI at $52/bbl.