Gold Surges Above $4,600 Without Being "Overbought"? WGC: True Resistance Level at $4,770!
Since the start of 2026, amid ongoing global geopolitical turmoil, gold prices have continued their upward momentum, historically surpassing $4,600 on Monday. The World Gold Council (WGC) believes that from a technical perspective, gold is not yet overbought, and it will only enter a significantly overbought zone when the price breaks above $4,770 per ounce.
In its latest Weekly Markets Monitor report, the WGC noted that although gold prices faced certain challenges at the beginning of the year, they have returned to an upward channel.
"In just two weeks into 2026, gold prices have withstood the impacts of multiple headwinds, including tax-loss selling, portfolio rebalancing, and volatility in the precious metals market, refreshing historical highs three times," WGC analysts wrote in the report. "When typically fleeting geopolitically driven rallies become frequent, the market's risk premium rises accordingly, providing support for gold price increases."
They added that the Trump administration's criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve Chair further boosted Monday's gold price movement, pushing spot gold above the $4,600 per ounce mark. "All of this reinforces one message: In a world of increasing uncertainty, strategic allocation to gold is beneficial for portfolios."
They pointed out that key economic data for the gold market this week includes the U.S. December CPI report to be released on Tuesday, "which may see a temporary rebound, with the core CPI monthly rate potentially rising to 0.4% (previous value 0.2%)—this is likely due to data distortions from the government shutdown in previous months."
In Europe, "UK November GDP (released on Thursday) is expected to show stagnant growth at the end of 2025. Meanwhile, Germany's full-year 2025 GDP (released on Thursday) may show a modest 0.3% year-over-year growth after two consecutive years of contraction."
From a technical standpoint, WGC analysts indicated that based on a key fourth-quarter chart pattern, gold is not in an overbought state as long as the price remains below $4,770.
They wrote: "Despite signs of fatigue and momentum divergence, gold has only experienced mild pullbacks so far and has set new highs after successfully holding support at its short-term 13-day exponential moving average (currently at $4,447 per ounce). We maintain the view that this consolidation is a temporary correction within the core uptrend.
As long as the support at $4,447 per ounce holds, the short-term upward trend in gold prices will not change, with the next resistance at $4,600 per ounce. The upper limit of what we consider the 'typical overbought zone'—i.e., 25% above the 200-day moving average—is at $4,585 per ounce."
The analysts also stated: "Although we remain cautious about potential new pullbacks in gold prices near $4,600 per ounce, we note that market positions have not reached extreme levels, and from the 'triangle' pattern formed in October/December 2025, the resistance level is still higher at $4,770 per ounce.
A break below $4,447 per ounce, followed by a break below the support at $4,408 per ounce, could weaken the short-term uptrend, but we expect good support below at $4,345, and in the $4,275 to $4,265 range."
On Tuesday, despite ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, gold prices fell slightly as investors took profits, with spot gold currently trading below $4,600.
Citibank recently raised its three-month gold target price to $5,000 per ounce, citing strong investment momentum and numerous positive factors likely to persist in the first quarter of this year.