New Record Set! Spot Gold Breaks $5,000 for the First Time — Institutions Target $6,600/oz

 

Since the start of 2026, gold has continued its historic rally from last year, repeatedly hitting new highs. On Monday (January 26) in early Asian trading, another milestone was reached: spot gold surged past the key psychological level of $5,000 per ounce for the first time ever. Remarkably, it has taken just over 100 days since gold first crossed $4,000.

 

As of press time, spot gold was up 1.08% at $5,036.57/oz, with an intraday record high of $5,043.9/oz. Gold futures also rose more than 1%, briefly touching above $5,080.

 

Other precious metals joined the rally on Monday. Silver jumped over 2%, hitting a fresh all-time high of $106.56/oz. Platinum edged higher to a new peak of $2,798.46/oz.

 

In 2025, international gold prices soared more than 60%, marking the largest annual gain since 1979. Last week alone, gold rose over 8%, and year-to-date in 2026 it has climbed nearly 17%.

 

Analysts attribute the surge to a combination of factors: aggressive central bank buying, escalating geopolitical tensions, and a weaker dollar.

 

Central banks are fueling a new wave of gold purchases. Last week's World Gold Council report showed global central banks net bought 45 tonnes in November 2025 — down from October but still elevated compared to earlier months in the year. Cumulative net purchases for 2025 through November reached 297 tonnes, led by emerging-market buyers including Poland, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Turkey, and China.

 

Poland's central bank last week approved a plan to buy up to 150 tonnes more, boosting its total reserves to 700 tonnes.

 

China's People's Bank of China reported official reserves of 74.15 million ounces as of end-December 2025, with an addition of 30,000 ounces that month — marking the 14th consecutive month of increases since November 2024. This sustained buying has bolstered long-term market confidence.

 

Geopolitical risks continue to drive safe-haven demand. Recent tensions over Greenland have widened the rift between the US and Europe. Although President Trump has ruled out military force to acquire the Arctic island from Denmark, his ambitions remain strong, with ongoing pressure on the EU to concede.

 

A weaker dollar has further boosted gold's appeal. Amid renewed tariff threats from Trump, "sell America" sentiment has resurfaced. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 1.6% last week — its biggest weekly drop since May — making gold more affordable for most global buyers.

 

Notably, gold's safe-haven allure and currency-debasement trade have overshadowed traditional headwinds like stable interest rates. Typically, Fed rate cuts favor gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.

 

The Fed holds its policy meeting this week, with markets widely expecting rates to stay unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. CME FedWatch Tool pricing shows no cut expected before June.

Institutions Eye $6,600

Wall Street remains bullish on gold's outlook. Jefferies Group is the most aggressive, forecasting $6,600/oz this year.

 

Goldman Sachs last week raised its end-2026 target to $5,400/oz (from $4,900), citing successful diversification into gold by private investors. The bank noted that since 2025, price momentum has accelerated as central banks compete with private buyers for limited supply.

 

Bank of America recently lifted its near-term target to $6,000/oz. Analyst Michael Hartnett wrote: "History doesn't predict the future, but across four prior gold bull markets, prices rose ~300% on average over 43 months — implying gold could hit $6,000/oz by spring 2026."

 

Independent analyst Ross Norman forecasts a 2026 high of $6,400/oz and an average of $5,375/oz.

 

Saxo Bank's Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen noted that "FOMO" (fear of missing out) among investors is now a clear driver as prices hit records. But he cautioned against dismissing the rally as pure speculation: the macro backdrop remains supportive. With governments running large deficits and long-term debt sustainability unclear, central banks' demand for gold as a diversification tool stays robust.